Correlated biodiversity change between plant and insect assemblages resurveyed after 80 years across a dynamic habitat mosaic.

Historical data on co-occurring taxa are extremely rare. As such, the extent to which distinct co-occurring taxa experience similar long-term patterns in species richness and compositional change (e.g., when exposed to a changing environment) is not clear. Using data from a diverse ecological community surveyed in the 1930s and resurveyed in the 2010s, we investigated whether local plant and insect assemblages displayed cross-taxon congruence-that is, spatiotemporal correlation in species richness and compositional change-across six co-occurring taxa: vascular plants, non-vascular plants, grasshoppers and crickets (Orthoptera), ants (Hymenoptera: Formicinae), hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae), and dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata). All taxa exhibited high levels of turnover across the ca. 80-year time period. Despite minimal observed changes at the level of the whole study system, species richness displayed widespread cross-taxon congruence (i.e., correlated temporal change) across local assemblages within the study system. Hierarchical logistic regression models suggest a role for shared responses to environmental change underlying cross-taxon correlations and highlight stronger correlations between vascular plants and their direct consumers, suggesting a possible role for biotic interactions between these groups. These results provide an illustration of cross-taxon congruence in biodiversity change using data unique in its combination of temporal and taxonomic scope, and highlight the potential for cascading and comparable effects of environmental change (abiotic and biotic) on co-occurring plant and insect communities. However, analyses of historical resurveys based on currently available data come with inherent uncertainties. As such, this study highlights a need for well-designed experiments, and monitoring programs incorporating co-occurring taxa, to determine the underlying mechanisms and prevalence of congruent biodiversity change as anthropogenic environmental change accelerates apace.

Behavioural thermoregulation in cold-water freshwater fish: Innate resilience to climate warming?

Behavioural thermoregulation enables ectotherms to access habitats providing conditions within their temperature optima, especially in periods of extreme thermal conditions, through adjustments to their behaviours that provide a "whole-body" response to temperature changes. Although freshwater fish have been detected as moving in response to temperature changes to access habitats that provide their thermal optima, there is a lack of integrative studies synthesising the extent to which this is driven by behaviour across different species and spatial scales. A quantitative global synthesis of behavioural thermoregulation in freshwater fish revealed that across 77 studies, behavioural thermoregulatory movements by fish were detected both vertically and horizontally, and from warm to cool waters and, occasionally, the converse. When fish moved from warm to cooler habitats, the extent of the temperature difference between these habitats decreased with increasing latitude, with juvenile and non-migratory fishes tolerating greater temperature differences than adult and anadromous individuals. With most studies focused on assessing movements of cold-water salmonids during summer periods, there remains an outstanding need for work on climatically vulnerable, non-salmonid fishes to understand how these innate thermoregulatory behaviours could facilitate population persistence in warming conditions.

Predicting how environmental conditions and smolt body length when entering the marine environment impact individual Atlantic salmon Salmo salar adult return rates.

Populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar have experienced precipitous declines in abundance since the 1970s. This decline has been associated with reduced numbers of adult salmon returning to fresh water from their marine migration, i.e., their marine return rates (MRR). Thus, understanding the factors that affect MRR is of crucial conservation importance. The authors used a state-space model with a 13-year time series of individually tagged salmon mark-recapture histories on the River Frome, southern England, to test the effect of smolt body length on their MRR. In addition to smolt length, the model tested for the influence of environmental covariates that were representative of the conditions experienced by the smolts in the early stages of their seaward migration, i.e., from the lower river to the estuary exit. The model indicated that, even when accounting for environmental covariates, smolt body length was an important predictor of MRR. Although larger smolts have a higher probability of returning to their natal river as adults than smaller smolts, and one-sea-winter salmon have a survival rate twice as high as multi-sea-winter salmon, the actual biological mechanisms underpinning this phenomenon remain uncertain. These results have important applications for salmon conservation, as efforts to bolster salmon populations in the freshwater environment should consider methods to improve smolt quality (i.e., body size) as well as smolt quantity.

Improving estimates of environmental change using multilevel regression models of Ellenberg indicator values.

Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs) are a widely used metric in plant ecology comprising a semi-quantitative description of species' ecological requirements. Typically, point estimates of mean EIV scores are compared over space or time to infer differences in the environmental conditions structuring plant communities-particularly in resurvey studies where no historical environmental data are available. However, the use of point estimates as a basis for inference does not take into account variance among species EIVs within sampled plots and gives equal weighting to means calculated from plots with differing numbers of species. Traditional methods are also vulnerable to inaccurate estimates where only incomplete species lists are available.We present a set of multilevel (hierarchical) models-fitted with and without group-level predictors (e.g., habitat type)-to improve precision and accuracy of plot mean EIV scores and to provide more reliable inference on changing environmental conditions over spatial and temporal gradients in resurvey studies. We compare multilevel model performance to GLMMs fitted to point estimates of mean EIVs. We also test the reliability of this method to improve inferences with incomplete species lists in some or all sample plots. Hierarchical modeling led to more accurate and precise estimates of plot-level differences in mean EIV scores between time-periods, particularly for datasets with incomplete records of species occurrence. Furthermore, hierarchical models revealed directional environmental change within ecological habitat types, which less precise estimates from GLMMs of raw mean EIVs were inadequate to detect. The ability to compute separate residual variance and adjusted R 2 parameters for plot mean EIVs and temporal differences in plot mean EIVs in multilevel models also allowed us to uncover a prominent role of hydrological differences as a driver of community compositional change in our case study, which traditional use of EIVs would fail to reveal. Assessing environmental change underlying ecological communities is a vital issue in the face of accelerating anthropogenic change. We have demonstrated that multilevel modeling of EIVs allows for a nuanced estimation of such from plant assemblage data changes at local scales and beyond, leading to a better understanding of temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Further, the ability of these methods to perform well with missing data should increase the total set of historical data which can be used to this end.

Shifts in the climate space of temperate cyprinid fishes due to climate change are coupled with altered body sizes and growth rates.

Predictions of species responses to climate change often focus on distribution shifts, although responses can also include shifts in body sizes and population demographics. Here, shifts in the distributional ranges ('climate space'), body sizes (as maximum theoretical body sizes, L∞) and growth rates (as rate at which L∞ is reached, K) were predicted for five fishes of the Cyprinidae family in a temperate region over eight climate change projections. Great Britain was the model area, and the model species were Rutilus rutilus, Leuciscus leuciscus, Squalius cephalus, Gobio gobio and Abramis brama. Ensemble models predicted that the species' climate spaces would shift in all modelled projections, with the most drastic changes occurring under high emissions; all range centroids shifted in a north-westerly direction. Predicted climate space expanded for R. rutilus and A. brama, contracted for S. cephalus, and for L. leuciscus and G. gobio, expanded under low-emission scenarios but contracted under high emissions, suggesting the presence of some climate-distribution thresholds. For R. rutilus, A. brama, S. cephalus and G. gobio, shifts in their climate space were coupled with predicted shifts to significantly smaller maximum body sizes and/or faster growth rates, aligning strongly to aspects of temperature-body size theory. These predicted shifts in L∞ and K had considerable consequences for size-at-age per species, suggesting substantial alterations in population age structures and abundances. Thus, when predicting climate change outcomes for species, outputs that couple shifts in climate space with altered body sizes and growth rates provide considerable insights into the population and community consequences, especially for species that cannot easily track their thermal niches.

Protected areas facilitate species' range expansions.

The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of individual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.