A Consistent Framework for Coupling Basal Friction With Subglacial Hydrology on Hard-Bedded Glaciers.

Below hard-bedded glaciers, both basal friction and distributed subglacial drainage are thought to be controlled by a network of cavities. Previous coupled hydro-mechanical models, however, describe cavity-driven friction and hydraulic transmissivity independently, resulting in a physically inconsistent cavity evolution between the two components of the models. Here, we overcome this issue by describing the hydro-mechanical system using a common cavity-evolution description, that governs both transient friction and hydraulic transmissivity. We show that our coupling approach is superior to previous formulations in explaining a unique observation record of glacier sliding speed from the French Alps. We find that, at multi-day to multi-decadal timescales, sliding speed can be expressed as a direct function of basal shear stress and water discharge, without accounting for water pressure, which simply adjusts to maintain the cavitation ratio needed to accommodate the water supply.

Threshold response to melt drives large-scale bed weakening in Greenland.

Ice speeds in Greenland are largely set by basal motion1, which is modulated by meltwater delivery to the ice base2-4. Evidence suggests that increasing melt rates enhance the subglacial drainage network's capacity to evacuate basal water, increasing bed friction and causing the ice to slow5-10. This limits the potential of melt forcing to increase mass loss as temperatures increase11. Here we show that melt forcing has a pronounced influence on dynamics, but factors besides melt rates primarily control its impact. Using a method to examine friction variability across the entirety of western Greenland, we show that the main impact of melt forcing is an abrupt north-to-south change in bed strength that cannot be explained by changes in melt production. The southern ablation zone is weakened by 20-40 per cent compared with regions with no melt, whereas in northern Greenland the ablation zone is strengthened. We show that the weakening is consistent with persistent basal water storage and that the threshold is linked to differences in sliding and hydropotential gradients, which exert primary control on the pressures within drainage pathways that dewater the bed. These characteristics are mainly set by whether a margin is land or marine terminating, suggesting that dynamic changes that increase mass loss are likely to occur in northern Greenland as temperatures increase. Our results point to physical representations of these findings that will improve simulated ice-sheet evolution at centennial scales.

Observing the subglacial hydrology network and its dynamics with a dense seismic array.

Subglacial water flow strongly modulates glacier basal motion, which itself strongly influences the contributions of glaciers and ice sheets to sea level rise. However, our understanding of when and where subglacial water flow enhances or impedes glacier flow is limited due to the paucity of direct observations of subglacial drainage characteristics. Here, we demonstrate that dense seismic array observations combined with an innovative systematic seismic source location technique allows the retrieval of a two-dimensional map of a subglacial drainage system, as well as its day-to-day temporal evolution. We observe with unprecedented detail when and where subglacial water flows through a cavity-like system that enhances glacier flow versus when and where water mainly flows through a channel-like system that impedes glacier flow. Most importantly, we are able to identify regions of high hydraulic connectivity within and across the cavity and channel systems, which have been identified as having a major impact on the long-term glacier response to climate warming. Applying a similar seismic monitoring strategy in other glacier settings, including for ice sheets, may help to diagnose the susceptibility of their dynamics to increased meltwater input due to climate warming.

Characterizing horizontally-polarized shear and infragravity vibrational modes in the Arctic sea ice cover using correlation methods.

The deployment of three drifting seismic stations on the Arctic sea ice during the winter of 2014-2015 with station inter-spacing between 30 and 80 km enables the characterization of the coherent seismic wavefield at these scales through the use of array methods. Two distinct vibrational modes are observed, corresponding to the fast and non-dispersive horizontally-polarized shear (SH) mode and the slow and dispersive flexural, infragravity mode (ice swell). The excitation of these two modes is not synchronous. The activation of the infragravity mode is linked to the arrival of energetic, dispersive wavetrains that can be readily seen on individual spectrograms, and that, as previous studies have shown, are likely to have their origins in distant storms. In contrast, the SH mode is excited at other time intervals and cannot be isolated on the recording of single stations due to the broadband and emergent nature of these wavetrains; given the horizontal polarization of these waves, the authors hypothesize that SH waves are caused by episodes of rapid SH deformation along major leads located outside the station network. The existence of horizontally-polarized waves propagating over long distances opens the possibility of monitoring ice deformation at the scale of the Arctic basin with unprecedented time resolution.

Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya.

Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by catastrophic floods that are caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams; however, the dynamics and long-term impacts of such floods remain poorly understood. We present a comprehensive set of observations that capture the July 2016 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River of Nepal. Seismic records of the flood provide new insights into GLOF mechanics and their ability to mobilize large boulders that otherwise prevent channel erosion. Because of this boulder mobilization, GLOF impacts far exceed those of the annual summer monsoon, and GLOFs may dominate fluvial erosion and channel-hillslope coupling many tens of kilometers downstream of glaciated areas. Long-term valley evolution in these regions may therefore be driven by GLOF frequency and magnitude, rather than by precipitation.

(Finite) statistical size effects on compressive strength.

The larger structures are, the lower their mechanical strength. Already discussed by Leonardo da Vinci and Edmé Mariotte several centuries ago, size effects on strength remain of crucial importance in modern engineering for the elaboration of safety regulations in structural design or the extrapolation of laboratory results to geophysical field scales. Under tensile loading, statistical size effects are traditionally modeled with a weakest-link approach. One of its prominent results is a prediction of vanishing strength at large scales that can be quantified in the framework of extreme value statistics. Despite a frequent use outside its range of validity, this approach remains the dominant tool in the field of statistical size effects. Here we focus on compressive failure, which concerns a wide range of geophysical and geotechnical situations. We show on historical and recent experimental data that weakest-link predictions are not obeyed. In particular, the mechanical strength saturates at a nonzero value toward large scales. Accounting explicitly for the elastic interactions between defects during the damage process, we build a formal analogy of compressive failure with the depinning transition of an elastic manifold. This critical transition interpretation naturally entails finite-size scaling laws for the mean strength and its associated variability. Theoretical predictions are in remarkable agreement with measurements reported for various materials such as rocks, ice, coal, or concrete. This formalism, which can also be extended to the flowing instability of granular media under multiaxial compression, has important practical consequences for future design rules.