Human practices behind the aquatic and terrestrial ecological decoupling to climate change in the tropical Andes.

Anthropogenic climate change and landscape alteration are two of the most important threats to the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems of the tropical Americas, thus jeopardizing water and soil resources for millions of people in the Andean nations. Understanding how aquatic ecosystems will respond to anthropogenic stressors and accelerated warming requires shifting from short-term and static to long-term, dynamic characterizations of human-terrestrial-aquatic relationships. Here we use sediment records from Lake Llaviucu, a tropical mountain Andean lake long accessed by Indigenous and post-European societies, and hypothesize that under natural historical conditions (i.e., low human pressure) vegetation and aquatic ecosystems' responses to change are coupled through indirect climate influences-that is, past climate-driven vegetation changes dictated limnological trajectories. We used a multi-proxy paleoecological approach including drivers of terrestrial vegetation change (pollen), soil erosion (Titanium), human activity (agropastoralism indicators), and aquatic responses (diatoms) to estimate assemblage-wide rates of change and model their synchronous and asynchronous (lagged) relationships using Generalized Additive Models. Assemblage-wide rate of change results showed that between ca. 3000 and 400 calibrated years before present (cal years BP) terrestrial vegetation, agropastoralism and diatoms fluctuated along their mean regimes of rate of change without consistent periods of synchronous rapid change. In contrast, positive lagged relationships (i.e., asynchrony) between climate-driven terrestrial pollen changes and diatom responses (i.e., asynchrony) were in operation until ca. 750 cal years BP. Thereafter, positive lagged relationships between agropastoralism and diatom rates of changes dictated the lake trajectory, reflecting the primary control of human practices over the aquatic ecosystem prior European occupation. We interpret that shifts in Indigenous practices (e.g., valley terracing) curtailed nutrient inputs into the lake decoupling the links between climate-driven vegetation changes and the aquatic community. Our results demonstrate how rates of change of anthropogenic and climatic influences can guide dynamic ecological baselines for managing water ecosystem services in the Andes.

Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions.

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth's orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.

Climate control on terrestrial biospheric carbon turnover.

Terrestrial vegetation and soils hold three times more carbon than the atmosphere. Much debate concerns how anthropogenic activity will perturb these surface reservoirs, potentially exacerbating ongoing changes to the climate system. Uncertainties specifically persist in extrapolating point-source observations to ecosystem-scale budgets and fluxes, which require consideration of vertical and lateral processes on multiple temporal and spatial scales. To explore controls on organic carbon (OC) turnover at the river basin scale, we present radiocarbon (14C) ages on two groups of molecular tracers of plant-derived carbon-leaf-wax lipids and lignin phenols-from a globally distributed suite of rivers. We find significant negative relationships between the 14C age of these biomarkers and mean annual temperature and precipitation. Moreover, riverine biospheric-carbon ages scale proportionally with basin-wide soil carbon turnover times and soil 14C ages, implicating OC cycling within soils as a primary control on exported biomarker ages and revealing a broad distribution of soil OC reactivities. The ubiquitous occurrence of a long-lived soil OC pool suggests soil OC is globally vulnerable to perturbations by future temperature and precipitation increase. Scaling of riverine biospheric-carbon ages with soil OC turnover shows the former can constrain the sensitivity of carbon dynamics to environmental controls on broad spatial scales. Extracting this information from fluvially dominated sedimentary sequences may inform past variations in soil OC turnover in response to anthropogenic and/or climate perturbations. In turn, monitoring riverine OC composition may help detect future climate-change-induced perturbations of soil OC turnover and stocks.

Subseafloor Archaea reflect 139 kyrs of paleodepositional changes in the northern Red Sea.

The vertical distribution of subseafloor archaeal communities is thought to be primarily controlled by in situ conditions in sediments such as the availability of electron acceptors and donors, although sharp community shifts have also been observed at lithological boundaries suggesting that at least a subset of vertically stratified Archaea form a long-term genetic record of coinciding environmental conditions that occurred at the time of sediment deposition. To substantiate this possibility, we performed a highly resolved 16S rRNA gene survey of vertically stratified archaeal communities paired with paleo-oceanographic proxies in a sedimentary record from the northern Red Sea spanning the last glacial-interglacial cycle (i.e., marine isotope stages 1-6; MIS1-6). Our results show a strong significant correlation between subseafloor archaeal communities and drastic paleodepositional changes associated with glacial low vs. interglacial high stands (ANOSIM; R = .73; p = .001) and only a moderately strong correlation with lithological changes. Bathyarchaeota, Lokiarchaeota, MBGA, and DHVEG-1 were the most abundant identified archaeal groups. Whether they represented ancient cell lines from the time of deposition or migrated to the specific sedimentary horizons after deposition remains speculative. However, we show that the majority of sedimentary archaeal tetraether membrane lipids were of allochthonous origin and not produced in situ. Slow post-burial growth under energy-limited conditions would explain why the downcore distribution of these dominant archaeal groups still indirectly reflect changes in the paleodepositional environment that prevailed during the analyzed marine isotope stages. In addition, archaea seeded from the overlying water column such as Thaumarchaeota and group II and III Euryarchaeota, which were likely not have been able to subsist after burial, were identified from a lower abundance of preserved sedimentary DNA signatures, and represented direct markers of paleoenvironmental changes in the Red Sea spanning the last six marine isotope stages.

Holocene paleodepositional changes reflected in the sedimentary microbiome of the Black Sea.

Subsurface microbial communities are generally thought to be structured through in situ environmental conditions such as the availability of electron acceptors and donors and porosity, but recent studies suggest that the vertical distribution of a subset of subseafloor microbial taxa, which were present at the time of deposition, were selected by the paleodepositional environment. However, additional highly resolved temporal records of subsurface microbiomes and paired paleoenvironmental reconstructions are needed to justify this claim. Here, we performed a highly resolved shotgun metagenomics survey to study the taxonomic and functional diversity of the subsurface microbiome in Holocene sediments underlying the permanently stratified and anoxic Black Sea. Obligate aerobic bacteria made the largest contribution to the observed shifts in microbial communities associated with known Holocene climate stages and transitions. This suggests that the aerobic fraction of the subseafloor microbiome was seeded from the water column and did not undergo post-depositional selection. In contrast, obligate and facultative anaerobic bacteria showed the most significant response to the establishment of modern-day environmental conditions 5.2 ka ago that led to a major shift in planktonic communities and in the type of sequestered organic matter available for microbial degradation. No significant shift in the subseafloor microbiome was observed as a result of environmental changes that occurred shortly after the marine reconnection, 9 ka ago. This supports the general view that the marine reconnection was a gradual process. We conclude that a high-resolution analysis of downcore changes in the subseafloor microbiome can provide detailed insights into paleoenvironmental conditions and biogeochemical processes that occurred at the time of deposition.

Climatic control of Mississippi River flood hazard amplified by river engineering.

Over the past century, many of the world's major rivers have been modified for the purposes of flood mitigation, power generation and commercial navigation. Engineering modifications to the Mississippi River system have altered the river's sediment levels and channel morphology, but the influence of these modifications on flood hazard is debated. Detecting and attributing changes in river discharge is challenging because instrumental streamflow records are often too short to evaluate the range of natural hydrological variability before the establishment of flood mitigation infrastructure. Here we show that multi-decadal trends of flood hazard on the lower Mississippi River are strongly modulated by dynamical modes of climate variability, particularly the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but that the artificial channelization (confinement to a straightened channel) has greatly amplified flood magnitudes over the past century. Our results, based on a multi-proxy reconstruction of flood frequency and magnitude spanning the past 500 years, reveal that the magnitude of the 100-year flood (a flood with a 1 per cent chance of being exceeded in any year) has increased by 20 per cent over those five centuries, with about 75 per cent of this increase attributed to river engineering. We conclude that the interaction of human alterations to the Mississippi River system with dynamical modes of climate variability has elevated the current flood hazard to levels that are unprecedented within the past five centuries.

Tracing the Vedic Saraswati River in the Great Rann of Kachchh.

The lost Saraswati River mentioned in the ancient Indian tradition is postulated to have flown independently of the Indus River into the Arabian Sea, perhaps along courses of now defunct rivers such as Ghaggar, Hakra and Nara. The persistence of such a river during the Harappan Bronze Age and the Iron Age Vedic period is strongly debated. We drilled in the Great Rann of Kachchh (Kutch), an infilled gulf of the Arabian Sea, which must have received input from the Saraswati, if active. Nd and Sr isotopic measurements suggest that a distinct source may have been present before 10 ka. Later in Holocene, under a drying climate, sediments from the Thar Desert probably choked the signature of an independent Saraswati-like river. Alternatively, without excluding a Saraswati-like secondary source, the Indus and the Thar were the dominant sources throughout the post-glacial history of the GRK. Indus-derived sediment accelerated the infilling of GRK after ~6 ka when the Indus delta started to grow. Until its complete infilling few centuries ago, freshwater input from the Indus, and perhaps from the Ghaggar-Hakra-Nara, probably sustained a productive marine environment as well as navigability toward old coastal Harappan and historic towns in the region.

Climate oscillations reflected within the microbiome of Arabian Sea sediments.

Selection of microorganisms in marine sediment is shaped by energy-yielding electron acceptors for respiration that are depleted in vertical succession. However, some taxa have been reported to reflect past depositional conditions suggesting they have experienced weak selection after burial. In sediments underlying the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), we performed the first metagenomic profiling of sedimentary DNA at centennial-scale resolution in the context of a multi-proxy paleoclimate reconstruction. While vertical distributions of sulfate reducing bacteria and methanogens indicate energy-based selection typical of anoxic marine sediments, 5-15% of taxa per sample exhibit depth-independent stratigraphies indicative of paleoenvironmental selection over relatively short geological timescales. Despite being vertically separated, indicator taxa deposited under OMZ conditions were more similar to one another than those deposited in bioturbated intervals under intervening higher oxygen. The genomic potential for denitrification also correlated with palaeo-OMZ proxies, independent of sediment depth and available nitrate and nitrite. However, metagenomes revealed mixed acid and Entner-Dourdoroff fermentation pathways encoded by many of the same denitrifier groups. Fermentation thus may explain the subsistence of these facultatively anaerobic microbes whose stratigraphy follows changing paleoceanographic conditions. At least for certain taxa, our analysis provides evidence of their paleoenvironmental selection over the last glacial-interglacial cycle.

Decrease in coccolithophore calcification and CO2 since the middle Miocene.

Marine algae are instrumental in carbon cycling and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) regulation. One group, coccolithophores, uses carbon to photosynthesize and to calcify, covering their cells with chalk platelets (coccoliths). How ocean acidification influences coccolithophore calcification is strongly debated, and the effects of carbonate chemistry changes in the geological past are poorly understood. This paper relates degree of coccolith calcification to cellular calcification, and presents the first records of size-normalized coccolith thickness spanning the last 14 Myr from tropical oceans. Degree of calcification was highest in the low-pH, high-CO2 Miocene ocean, but decreased significantly between 6 and 4 Myr ago. Based on this and concurrent trends in a new alkenone ɛp record, we propose that decreasing CO2 partly drove the observed trend via reduced cellular bicarbonate allocation to calcification. This trend reversed in the late Pleistocene despite low CO2, suggesting an additional regulator of calcification such as alkalinity.

Fluvial response to climate variations and anthropogenic perturbations for the Ebro River, Spain in the last 4,000 years.

Fluvial sediment discharge can vary in response to climate changes and human activities, which in return influences human settlements and ecosystems through coastline progradation and retreat. To understand the mechanisms controlling the variations of fluvial water and sediment discharge for the Ebro drainage basin, Spain, we apply a hydrological model HydroTrend. Comparison of model results with a 47-year observational record (AD 1953-1999) suggests that the model adequately captures annual average water discharge (simulated 408 m(3)s(-1) versus observed 425 m(3)s(-1)) and sediment load (simulated 0.3 Mt yr(-1) versus observed 0.28 ± 0.04 Mt yr(-1)) for the Ebro basin. A long-term (4000-year) simulation, driven by paleoclimate and anthropogenic land cover change scenarios, indicates that water discharge is controlled by the changes in precipitation, which has a high annual variability but no long-term trend. Modeled suspended sediment load, however, has an increasing trend over time, which is closely related to anthropogenic land cover variations with no significant correlation to climatic changes. The simulation suggests that 4,000 years ago the annual sediment load to the ocean was 30.5 Mt yr(-1), which increased over time to 47.2 Mt yr(-1) (AD 1860-1960). In the second half of the 20th century, the emplacement of large dams resulted in a dramatic decrease in suspended sediment discharge, eventually reducing the flux to the ocean by more than 99% (mean value changes from 38.1 Mt yr(-1) to 0.3 Mt yr(-1)).

Evolution of the plankton paleome in the Black Sea from the Deglacial to Anthropocene.

The complex interplay of climate shifts over Eurasia and global sea level changes modulates freshwater and saltwater inputs to the Black Sea. The dynamics of the hydrologic changes from the Late Glacial into the Holocene remain a matter of debate, and information on how these changes affected the ecology of the Black Sea is sparse. Here we used Roche 454 next-generation pyrosequencing of sedimentary 18S rRNA genes to reconstruct the plankton community structure in the Black Sea over the last ca. 11,400 y. We found that 150 of 2,710 species showed a statistically significant response to four environmental stages. Freshwater chlorophytes were the best indicator species for lacustrine conditions (>9.0 ka B.P.), although the copresence of previously unidentified marine taxa indicated that the Black Sea might have been influenced to some extent by the Marmara Sea since at least 9.6 ka calendar (cal) B.P. Dinoflagellates, cercozoa, eustigmatophytes, and haptophytes responded most dramatically to the gradual increase in salinity after the latest marine reconnection and during the warm and moist mid-Holocene climatic optimum. According to paired analysis of deuterium/hydrogen (D/H) isotope ratios in fossil alkenones, salinity increased rapidly with the onset of the dry Subboreal after ~5.2 ka B.P., leading to an increase in marine fungi and the first occurrence of marine copepods. A gradual succession of dinoflagellates, diatoms, and chrysophytes occurred during the refreshening after ~2.5 ka cal B.P. with the onset of the cool and wet Subatlantic climate and recent anthropogenic perturbations.

Early anthropogenic transformation of the Danube-Black Sea system.

Over the last century humans have altered the export of fluvial materials leading to significant changes in morphology, chemistry, and biology of the coastal ocean. Here we present sedimentary, paleoenvironmental and paleogenetic evidence to show that the Black Sea, a nearly enclosed marine basin, was affected by land use long before the changes of the Industrial Era. Although watershed hydroclimate was spatially and temporally variable over the last ~3000 years, surface salinity dropped systematically in the Black Sea. Sediment loads delivered by Danube River, the main tributary of the Black Sea, significantly increased as land use intensified in the last two millennia, which led to a rapid expansion of its delta. Lastly, proliferation of diatoms and dinoflagellates over the last five to six centuries, when intensive deforestation occurred in Eastern Europe, points to an anthropogenic pulse of river-borne nutrients that radically transformed the food web structure in the Black Sea.

Fluvial landscapes of the Harappan civilization.

The collapse of the Bronze Age Harappan, one of the earliest urban civilizations, remains an enigma. Urbanism flourished in the western region of the Indo-Gangetic Plain for approximately 600 y, but since approximately 3,900 y ago, the total settled area and settlement sizes declined, many sites were abandoned, and a significant shift in site numbers and density towards the east is recorded. We report morphologic and chronologic evidence indicating that fluvial landscapes in Harappan territory became remarkably stable during the late Holocene as aridification intensified in the region after approximately 5,000 BP. Upstream on the alluvial plain, the large Himalayan rivers in Punjab stopped incising, while downstream, sedimentation slowed on the distinctive mega-fluvial ridge, which the Indus built in Sindh. This fluvial quiescence suggests a gradual decrease in flood intensity that probably stimulated intensive agriculture initially and encouraged urbanization around 4,500 BP. However, further decline in monsoon precipitation led to conditions adverse to both inundation- and rain-based farming. Contrary to earlier assumptions that a large glacier-fed Himalayan river, identified by some with the mythical Sarasvati, watered the Harappan heartland on the interfluve between the Indus and Ganges basins, we show that only monsoonal-fed rivers were active there during the Holocene. As the monsoon weakened, monsoonal rivers gradually dried or became seasonal, affecting habitability along their courses. Hydroclimatic stress increased the vulnerability of agricultural production supporting Harappan urbanism, leading to settlement downsizing, diversification of crops, and a drastic increase in settlements in the moister monsoon regions of the upper Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh.