Long-term monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and variants in Ethiopia provides prediction for immunity and cross-immunity.

Under-reporting of COVID-19 and the limited information about circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants remain major challenges for many African countries. We analyzed SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in Addis Ababa and Jimma, Ethiopia, focusing on reinfection, immunity, and vaccination effects. We conducted an antibody serology study spanning August 2020 to July 2022 with five rounds of data collection across a population of 4723, sequenced PCR-test positive samples, used available test positivity rates, and constructed two mathematical models integrating this data. A multivariant model explores variant dynamics identifying wildtype, alpha, delta, and omicron BA.4/5 as key variants in the study population, and cross-immunity between variants, revealing risk reductions between 24% and 69%. An antibody-level model predicts slow decay leading to sustained high antibody levels. Retrospectively, increased early vaccination might have substantially reduced infections during the delta and omicron waves in the considered group of individuals, though further vaccination now seems less impactful.

Seroepidemiology and model-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 in Ethiopia: longitudinal cohort study among front-line hospital workers and communities.

BACKGROUND: Over 1 year since the first reported case, the true COVID-19 burden in Ethiopia remains unknown due to insufficient surveillance. We aimed to investigate the seroepidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 among front-line hospital workers and communities in Ethiopia. METHODS: We did a population-based, longitudinal cohort study at two tertiary teaching hospitals involving hospital workers, rural residents, and urban communities in Jimma and Addis Ababa. Hospital workers were recruited at both hospitals, and community participants were recruited by convenience sampling including urban metropolitan settings, urban and semi-urban settings, and rural communities. Participants were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older, had provided written informed consent, and were willing to provide blood samples by venepuncture. Only one participant per household was recruited. Serology was done with Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid assay in three consecutive rounds, with a mean interval of 6 weeks between tests, to obtain seroprevalence and incidence estimates within the cohorts. FINDINGS: Between Aug 5, 2020, and April 10, 2021, we did three survey rounds with a total of 1104 hospital workers and 1229 community residents participating. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among hospital workers increased strongly during the study period: in Addis Ababa, it increased from 10·9% (95% credible interval [CrI] 8·3-13·8) in August, 2020, to 53·7% (44·8-62·5) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 2223 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 1785-2696); in Jimma Town, it increased from 30·8% (95% CrI 26·9-34·8) in November, 2020, to 56·1% (51·1-61·1) in February, 2021, with an incidence rate of 3810 per 100 000 person-weeks (95% CI 3149-4540). Among urban communities, an almost 40% increase in seroprevalence was observed in early 2021, with incidence rates of 1622 per 100 000 person-weeks (1004-2429) in Jimma Town and 4646 per 100 000 person-weeks (2797-7255) in Addis Ababa. Seroprevalence in rural communities increased from 18·0% (95% CrI 13·5-23·2) in November, 2020, to 31·0% (22·3-40·3) in March, 2021. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 spread in Ethiopia has been highly dynamic among hospital worker and urban communities. We can speculate that the greatest wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections is currently evolving in rural Ethiopia, and thus requires focused attention regarding health-care burden and disease prevention. FUNDING: Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts; Germany Ministry of Education and Research; EU Horizon 2020 programme; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and Volkswagenstiftung.