COVID-19 DEATHS AND VACCINATION IN NIGERIA: AN APPRAISAL.

Background/Aim: Some estimates indicates that by 2021 ending, more people as a share of the vulnerable population in Africa, Nigeria inclusive, have died than elsewhere due to late and inadequate vaccination. With the pandemic phase of high daily deaths formally declared over, COVID-19 deaths before and after vaccination commenced were compared to observe how vaccination impacted COVID-19 deaths. Method: COVID-19 cases, deaths and vaccination rates in World Health Organization databases up to 07 June 2023 and other variables of interest unavailable there but found in other open- sources were all extracted and examined. Case fatality rate (CFR) per 1,000 for the period prior to vaccination (CFR1) and the period after vaccination commenced (CFR2) was computed. Simple statistics were used in data analysis. Results: Between when the first case was documented and 05 June 2023, Nigeria recorded 3,155 COVID-19 deaths and majority (61.84%) occurred between 19 March 2020 and March 5, 2021 when vaccination commenced. COVID-19 deaths declined to 61.7% of pre-vaccination figure coinciding with vaccination that delivered partial, primary and booster rates of 39.94%, 33.86% and 5.97% respectively. The cumulative COVID-19 deaths by population size was 8.94/106 pre-vaccination while COVID-19 deaths in vaccination era added 5.510/106mortalities to the final mortality figure of 14. 44/106. The calculated CFR1 and CFR2 rebased were 1.24% and 1.04% respectively. Conclusion: More COVID-19 deaths occurred before vaccination commenced than in over two years of ongoing vaccination.

COVID-19 Pandemic as a mass killer and existential public health emergency in Nigeria remains unproven: A viewpoint

Framing COVID­19 pandemic as mass killer and existential public health emergency/threat in Nigeria with 2,120 COVID­19­related deaths in over 14 months of the pandemic in the country is problematic, especially as other public health conditions kill more Nigerians annually. In 2018, for example, malaria and road traffic accident caused 97,200 and 38,902 deaths, respectively, while HIV/AIDS caused 43,000 deaths in 2019. Therefore, rushing into an extensive vaccination campaign projected to cost 540 billion naira when 76.03 billion naira was allocated for primary health services nationwide including other major immunization programs in the 2021 federal health budget could raise question of priority/effective spending. Especially with COVID-19 deaths relative to reported cases(case fatality ratio) declining to 1.30% by June 30, 2021 from 3.45% in April 2020 and daily mass deaths non-evident. Temporizing to understand how the pandemic evolves especially in jurisdictions with higher need could be cost­effective.