Excess Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Air Pollution above American Thoracic Society Recommended Standards, 2017-2019.

Rationale: Over the past year, the American Thoracic Society (ATS), led by its Environmental Health Policy Committee, has reviewed the most current air quality scientific evidence and has revised their recommendations to 8 µg/m3 and 25 µg/m3 for long- and short-term fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and reaffirmed the recommendation of 60 ppb for ozone to protect the American public from the known adverse health effects of air pollution. The current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards, in contrast, expose the American public to pollution levels that are known to result in significant morbidity and mortality. Objectives: To provide county-level estimates of annual air pollution-related health outcomes across the United States using the most recent federal air quality data, and to support the ATS's recent update to the long-term PM2.5 recommended standard. This study is presented as part of the annual ATS/Marron Institute "Health of the Air" report. Methods: Daily air pollution values were obtained from the EPA's air quality system for monitored counties in the United States from 2017-2019. Concentration-response functions used in the EPA's regulatory review process were applied to pollution increments corresponding to differences between the rolling 3-year design values and ATS-recommended levels for long-term PM2.5 (8 µg/m3), short-term PM2.5 (25 µg/m3), and ground-level ozone (O3; 60 ppb). Health impacts were estimated at the county level in locations with valid monitoring data. Results: Meeting ATS recommendations throughout the country prevents an estimated 14,650 (95% confidence interval [CI], 8,660-22,610) deaths; 2,950 (95% CI, 1,530-4,330) lung cancer incidence events; 33,100 (95% CI, 7,300-71,000) morbidities, and 39.8 million (95% CI, 14.6-63.3 million) impacted days annually. This prevents 11,850 more deaths; 2,580 more lung cancer incidence events; 25,400 more morbidities; and 27.2 million more impacted days than meeting EPA standards alone. Conclusions: Significant health benefits to be gained by U.S. communities that work to meet ATS-recommended air quality standards have now been identified under scenarios meeting the new ATS recommendation for long-term PM2.5 (8 µg/m3). The "Health of the Air" report presents an opportunity for air quality managers to quantify local health burdens and EPA officials to update their standards to reflect the latest science.

Communicating respiratory health risk among children using a global air quality index.

Air pollution poses a serious threat to children's respiratory health around the world. Satellite remote-sensing technology and air quality models can provide pollution data on a global scale, necessary for risk communication efforts in regions without ground-based monitoring networks. Several large centers, including NASA, produce global pollution forecasts that may be used alongside air quality indices to communicate local, daily risk information to the public. Here we present a health-based, globally applicable air quality index developed specifically to reflect the respiratory health risks among children exposed to elevated outdoor air pollution. Additive, excess-risk air quality indices were developed using 51 different coefficients derived from time-series health studies evaluating the impacts of ambient fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone on children's respiratory morbidity outcomes. A total of four indices were created which varied based on whether or not the underlying studies controlled for co-pollutants and in the adjustment of excess risks of individual pollutants. Combined with historical estimates of air pollution provided globally at a 25 × 25 km2 spatial resolution from the NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System composition forecast (GEOS-CF) model, each of these indices were examined in a global sample of 664 small and 140 large cities for study year 2017. Adjusted indices presented the most normal distributions of locally-scaled index values, which has been shown to improve associations with health risks, while indices based on coefficients controlling for co-pollutants had little effect on index performance. We provide the steps and resources need to apply our final adjusted index at the local level using freely-available forecasting data from the GEOS-CF model, which can provide risk communication information for cities around the world to better inform individual behavior modification to best protect children's respiratory health.

Evaluating the U.S. Air Quality Index as a risk communication tool: Comparing associations of index values with respiratory morbidity among adults in California.

BACKGROUND: The Air Quality Index (AQI) in the United States is widely used to communicate daily air quality information to the public. While use of the AQI has led to reported changes in individual behaviors, such behavior modifications will only mitigate adverse health effects if AQI values are indicative of public health risks. Few studies have assessed the capability of the AQI to accurately predict respiratory morbidity risks. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In three major regions of California, Poisson generalized linear models were used to assess seasonal associations between 1,373,165 respiratory emergency department visits and short-term exposure to multiple metrics between 2012-2014, including: daily concentrations of NO2, O3, and PM2.5; the daily reported AQI; and a newly constructed health-based air quality index. AQI values were positively associated (average risk ratio = 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.04) during the cooler months of the year (November-February) in all three regions when the AQI was very highly correlated with PM2.5 (R2 ≥ 0.89). During the warm season (March-October) in the San Joaquin Valley region, neither AQI values nor the individual underlying air pollutants were associated with respiratory morbidity. Additionally, AQI values were not positively associated with respiratory morbidity in the Southern California region during the warm season, despite strong associations of the individual underlying air pollutants with respiratory morbidity; in contrast, health-based index values were observed to be significantly associated with respiratory morbidity as part of an applied policy analysis in this region, with a combined risk ratio of 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.03). CONCLUSIONS: In regions where individual air pollutants are associated with respiratory morbidity, and during seasons with relatively simple air mixtures, the AQI can effectively serve as a risk communication tool for respiratory health risks. However, the predictive ability of the AQI and any other index is contingent upon the monitored values being representative of actual population exposures. Other approaches, such as health-based indices, may be needed in order to effectively communicate health risks of air pollution in regions and seasons with more complex air mixtures.

Trends in Excess Morbidity and Mortality Associated with Air Pollution above American Thoracic Society-Recommended Standards, 2008-2017.

Rationale: Air quality improvements are increasingly difficult to come by as modern pollution control technologies and measures have been widely implemented in the United States. Although there have been dramatic improvements in air quality over the last several decades, it is important to evaluate changes in the health impacts of air pollution for a more recent time period to better understand the current trajectory of air quality improvements. Objectives: To provide county-level estimates of annual air pollution-related health outcomes across the United States and to evaluate these trends from 2008 to 2017, presented as part of the annual American Thoracic Society (ATS)/Marron Institute "Health of the Air" report. Methods: Daily air pollution values were obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System for monitors in the United States from 2008 to 2017. Concentration-response functions used in the ATS/Marron Institute "Health of the Air" report were applied to the pollution increments corresponding to differences between the rolling 3-year design values (reported as the third year) and ATS-recommended levels for annual particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5; 11 µg/m3), short-term PM2.5 (25 µg/m3), and ozone (O3; 60 ppb). Health impacts were estimated at the county level in locations with valid monitor data. Results: Annual excess mortality in the United States due to air pollution levels greater than recommended by the ATS decreased from approximately 12,600 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5,470-21,040) in 2010 to 7,140 (95% CI, 2,290-14,040) in 2017. This improvement can be attributed almost entirely to reductions in PM2.5-related mortality, which decreased by approximately 60% (reduced from 8,330 to 3,260 annual deaths), whereas O3-related mortality remained largely unchanged, other than year-to-year variability, over the same time period (reduced from 4,270 to 3,880 annual deaths). Conclusions: Improvements in health impacts attributable to ambient PM2.5 concentrations have been observed across most regions of the United States over the last decade, although the rate of these improvements has leveled off in recent years. Despite two revisions of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards strengthening the standard for O3 in 2008 and 2015, there has not yet been a substantial improvement in the health impacts attributable to O3 during this time period. In many U.S. cities, an increase in the exposed population over the last decade has outpaced the improvements in ambient O3 concentrations, resulting in a net increase in O3-related health impacts over time.

Assessing air quality index awareness and use in Mexico City.

BACKGROUND: The Mexico City Metropolitan Area has an expansive urban population and a long history of air quality management challenges. Poor air quality has been associated with adverse pulmonary and cardiac health effects, particularly among susceptible populations with underlying disease. In addition to reducing pollution concentrations, risk communication efforts that inform behavior modification have the potential to reduce public health burdens associated with air pollution. METHODS: This study investigates the utilization of Mexico's IMECA risk communication index to inform air pollution avoidance behavior among the general population living in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Individuals were selected via probability sampling and surveyed by phone about their air quality index knowledge, pollution concerns, and individual behaviors. RESULTS: The results indicated reasonably high awareness of the air quality index (53% of respondents), with greater awareness in urban areas, among older and more educated individuals, and for those who received air quality information from a healthcare provider. Additionally, behavior modification was less influenced by index reports as it was by personal perceptions of air quality, and there was no difference in behavior modification among susceptible and non-susceptible groups. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, these results suggest there are opportunities to improve the public health impact of risk communication through an increased focus on susceptible populations and greater encouragement of public action in response to local air quality indices.

American Thoracic Society and Marron Institute Report. Estimated Excess Morbidity and Mortality Caused by Air Pollution above American Thoracic Society-Recommended Standards, 2011-2013.

Estimates of the health impacts of air pollution are needed to make informed air quality management decisions at both the national and local levels. Using design values of ambient pollution concentrations from 2011-2013 as a baseline, the American Thoracic Society (ATS) and the Marron Institute of Urban Management estimated excess morbidity and mortality in the United States attributable to exposure to ambient ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at levels above the American Thoracic Society-recommended standards. Within the subset of counties with valid design values for each pollutant, 14% had PM2.5 concentrations greater than the ATS recommendation, whereas 91% had O3 concentrations greater than the ATS recommendation. Approximately 9,320 excess deaths (69% from O3; 31% from PM2.5), 21,400 excess morbidities (74% from O3; 26% from PM2.5), and 19,300,000 adversely impacted days (88% from O3; 12% from PM2.5) in the United States each year are attributable to pollution exceeding the ATS-recommended standards. California alone is responsible for 37% of the total estimated health impacts, and the next three states (Pennsylvania, Texas, and Ohio) together contributed to 20% of the total estimates. City-specific health estimates are provided in this report and through an accompanying online tool to help inform air quality management decisions made at the local level. Riverside and Los Angeles, California have the most to gain by attaining the ATS recommendations for O3 and PM2.5. This report will be revised and updated regularly to help cities track their progress.