Designing an Observing System to Study the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) of the Earth in the 2020s.

Observations of planet Earth from space are a critical resource for science and society. Satellite measurements represent very large investments and United States (US) agencies organize their effort to maximize the return on that investment. The US National Research Council conducts a survey of Earth science and applications to prioritize observations for the coming decade. The most recent survey prioritized a visible to shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer and a multispectral thermal infrared imager to meet a range of needs for studying Surface Biology and Geology (SBG). SBG will be the premier integrated observatory for observing the emerging impacts of climate change by characterizing the diversity of plant life and resolving chemical and physiological signatures. It will address wildfire risk, behavior, and recovery as well as responses to hazards such as oil spills, toxic minerals in minelands, harmful algal blooms, landslides, and other geological hazards. The SBG team analyzed needed instrument characteristics (spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions, measurement uncertainty) and assessed the cost, mass, power, volume, and risk of different architectures. We present an overview of the Research and Applications trade-study analysis of algorithms, calibration and validation needs, and societal applications with specifics of substudies detailed in other articles in this special collection. We provide a value framework to converge from hundreds down to three candidate architectures recommended for development. The analysis identified valuable opportunities for international collaboration to increase the revisit frequency, adding value for all partners, leading to a clear measurement strategy for an observing system architecture.

Monitoring tropical forest succession at landscape scales despite uncertainty in Landsat time series.

Forecasting rates of forest succession at landscape scales will aid global efforts to restore tree cover to millions of hectares of degraded land. While optical satellite remote sensing can detect regional land cover change, quantifying forest structural change is challenging. We developed a state-space modeling framework that applies Landsat satellite data to estimate variability in rates of natural regeneration between sites in a tropical landscape. Our models work by disentangling measurement error in Landsat-derived spectral reflectance from process error related to successional variability. We applied our modeling framework to rank rates of forest succession between 10 naturally regenerating sites in Southwestern Panama from about 2001 to 2015 and tested how different models for measurement error impacted forecast accuracy, ecological inference, and rankings of successional rates between sites. We achieved the greatest increase in forecasting accuracy by adding intra-annual phenological variation to a model based on Landsat-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The best-performing model accounted for inter- and intra-annual noise in spectral reflectance and translated NDVI to canopy height via Landsat-lidar fusion. Modeling forest succession as a function of canopy height rather than NDVI also resulted in more realistic estimates of forest state during early succession, including greater confidence in rank order of successional rates between sites. These results establish the viability of state-space models to quantify ecological dynamics from time series of space-borne imagery. State-space models also provide a statistical approach well-suited to fusing high-resolution data, such as airborne lidar, with lower-resolution data that provides better temporal and spatial coverage, such as the Landsat satellite record. Monitoring forest succession using satellite imagery could play a key role in achieving global restoration targets, including identifying sites that will regain tree cover with minimal intervention.

Methodological considerations of terrestrial laser scanning for vegetation monitoring in the sagebrush steppe.

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) provides fast collection of high-definition structural information, making it a valuable field instrument to many monitoring applications. A weakness of TLS collections, especially in vegetation, is the occurrence of unsampled regions in point clouds where the sensor's line-of-sight is blocked by intervening material. This problem, referred to as occlusion, may be mitigated by scanning target areas from several positions, increasing the chance that any given area will fall within the scanner's line-of-sight from at least one position. Because TLS collections are often employed in remote regions where the scope of sampling is limited by logistical factors such as time and battery power, it is important to design field protocols which maximize efficiency and support increased quantity and quality of the data collected. This study informs researchers and practitioners seeking to optimize TLS sampling methods for vegetation monitoring in dryland ecosystems through three analyses. First, we quantify the 2D extent of occluded regions based on the range from single scan positions. Second, we measure the efficacy of additional scan positions on the reduction of 2D occluded regions (area) using progressive configurations of scan positions in 1 ha plots. Third, we test the reproducibility of 3D sampling yielded by a 5-scan/ha sampling methodology using redundant sets of scans. Analyses were performed using measurements at analysis scales of 5 to 50 cm across the 1-ha plots, and we considered plots in grass and shrub-dominated communities separately. In grass-dominated plots, a center-scan configuration and 5 cm pixel size sampled at least 90% of the area up to 18 m away from the scanner. In shrub-dominated plots, sampling at least 90% of the area was only achieved within a distance of 12 m. We found that 3 and 5 scans/ha are needed to sample at least ~ 70% of the total area (1 ha) in the grass and shrub-dominated plots, respectively, using 5 cm pixels to measure sampling presence-absence. The reproducibility of 3D sampling provided by a 5 position scan layout across 1-ha plots was 50% (shrub) and 70% (grass) using a 5-cm voxel size, whereas at the 50-cm voxel scale, reproducibility of sampling was nearly 100% for all plot types. Future studies applying TLS in similar dryland environments for vegetation monitoring may use our results as a guide to efficiently achieve sampling coverage and reproducibility in datasets.

A machine learning approach to estimation of downward solar radiation from satellite-derived data products: An application over a semi-arid ecosystem in the U.S.

Shortwave solar radiation is an important component of the surface energy balance and provides the principal source of energy for terrestrial ecosystems. This paper presents a machine learning approach in the form of a random forest (RF) model for estimating daily downward solar radiation flux at the land surface over complex terrain using MODIS (MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) remote sensing data. The model-building technique makes use of a unique network of 16 solar flux measurements in the semi-arid Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed and Critical Zone Observatory, in southwest Idaho, USA. Based on a composite RF model built on daily observations from all 16 sites in the watershed, the model simulation of downward solar radiation matches well with the observation data (r2 = 0.96). To evaluate model performance, RF models were built from 12 of 16 sites selected at random and validated against the observations at the remaining four sites. Overall root mean square errors (RMSE), bias, and mean absolute error (MAE) are small (range: 37.17 W/m2-81.27 W/m2, -48.31 W/m2-15.67 W/m2, and 26.56 W/m2-63.77 W/m2, respectively). When extrapolated to the entire watershed, spatiotemporal patterns of solar flux are largely consistent with expected trends in this watershed. We also explored significant predictors of downward solar flux in order to reveal important properties and processes controlling downward solar radiation. Based on the composite RF model built on all 16 sites, the three most important predictors to estimate downward solar radiation include the black sky albedo (BSA) near infrared band (0.858 µm), BSA visible band (0.3-0.7 µm), and clear day coverage. This study has important implications for improving the ability to derive downward solar radiation through a fusion of multiple remote sensing datasets and can potentially capture spatiotemporally varying trends in solar radiation that is useful for land surface hydrologic and terrestrial ecosystem modeling.

Dynamic floodplain vegetation model development for the Kootenai River, USA.

The Kootenai River floodplain in Idaho, USA, is nearly disconnected from its main channel due to levee construction and the operation of Libby Dam since 1972. The decreases in flood frequency and magnitude combined with the river modification have changed the physical processes and the dynamics of floodplain vegetation. This research describes the concept, methodologies and simulated results of the rule-based dynamic floodplain vegetation model "CASiMiR-vegetation" that is used to simulate the effect of hydrological alteration on vegetation dynamics. The vegetation dynamics are simulated based on existing theory but adapted to observed field data on the Kootenai River. The model simulates the changing vegetation patterns on an annual basis from an initial condition based on spatially distributed physical parameters such as shear stress, flood duration and height-over-base flow level. The model was calibrated and the robustness of the model was analyzed. The hydrodynamic (HD) models were used to simulate relevant physical processes representing historic, pre-dam, and post-dam conditions from different representative hydrographs. The general concept of the vegetation model is that a vegetation community will be recycled if the magnitude of a relevant physical parameter is greater than the threshold value for specific vegetation; otherwise, succession will take place toward maturation stage. The overall accuracy and agreement Kappa between simulated and field observed maps were low considering individual vegetation types in both calibration and validation areas. Overall accuracy (42% and 58%) and agreement between maps (0.18 and 0.27) increased notably when individual vegetation types were merged into vegetation phases in both calibration and validation areas, respectively. The area balance approach was used to analyze the proportion of area occupied by different vegetation phases in the simulated and observed map. The result showed the impact of the river modification and hydrological alteration on the floodplain vegetation. The spatially distributed vegetation model developed in this study is a step forward in modeling riparian vegetation succession and can be used for operational loss assessment, and river and floodplain restoration projects.