Evolution of biomarker guided therapy for heart failure: current concepts and trial evidence.

Optimizing management of patients with heart failure remains quite challenging despite many significant advances in drug and device therapy for this syndrome. Although a large body of evidence from robust clinical trials supports multiple therapies, utilization of these well-established treatments remains inconsistent and outcomes suboptimal in "real-world" patients with heart failure. Disease management programs may be effective, but are difficult to implement due to cost and logistical issues. Another approach to optimizing therapy is to utilize biomarkers to guide therapeutic choices. Natriuretic peptides provide additional information of significant clinical value in the diagnosis and estimation of risk inpatients with heart failure. Ongoing research suggests a potential important added role for natriuretic peptides in heart failure. Guiding therapy based on serial changes in these biomarkers may be an effective strategy to optimize treatment and achieve better outcomes in this syndrome. Initial, innovative, proof-of-concept studies have provided encouraging results and important insights into key aspects of this strategy, but well designed, large-scale, multicenter, randomized, outcome trials are needed to definitively establish this novel approach to management. Given the immense and growing public health burden of heart failure, identification of cost-effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality due to this syndrome is critical.

Prediction of rehospitalization and death in severe heart failure by physicians and nurses of the ESCAPE trial.

BACKGROUND: The predictive accuracy of physician investigators and nurse coordinators in estimating the risk of rehospitalization and death was determined for 373 hospitalized patients with severe advanced heart failure enrolled in the Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Estimates were made at discharge, and patients were followed for 6 months after hospitalization. A statistical prognostic model was developed from clinical and laboratory data for the end points of rehospitalization and death. Both nurse and physician predictions of death were generally associated with the observed deaths (c-indices of 0.675 and 0.611), although the nurses' prediction was significantly better (chi-square = 4.75, P = .029). The prediction ability of the prognostic model was similar to the physicians' model (c-index = 0.603). The predictions of rehospitalization were much weaker for nurse, physician and prognostic models. CONCLUSIONS: Nurses' estimations of survival in discharged, advanced-stage heart failure patients were superior to either physicians' or model-based predictions. Not nurses, physicians, or the prognostic model provided useful predictions for rehospitalizations, but this may have resulted from the fact that the rehospitalization estimates did not include the death risk.