District-level HIV estimates using the spectrum model in five states of India, 2017.

ABSTRACT: Decentralized response has been the hallmark of the National AIDS Control Programme in India. District-level HIV burden estimates quantifying the distribution of the epidemics are needed to enhance this decentralized response further to monitor the progress on prevention, testing, and treatment interventions. In this paper, we describe the methodology and results of district-level estimates using the Spectrum model piloted in 5 states of India under National AIDS Control Programme.Using state spectrum model for HIV estimations 2017, we disaggregated state results by the district in pilot states. Each district was considered a subepidemic and HIV epidemic configuration was carried out in its general population as well as in key population. We used HIV surveillance data from antenatal clinics and routine pregnant women testing to model the general population's epidemic curve. We used HIV prevalence data available from HIV sentinel surveillance and integrated biological and behavioral surveys to inform the epidemic curve for key population. Estimation and projection packgage classic platform was used for the curve fitting. District-wide estimates extracted from subpopulation summary in Spectrum results section were used to calculate relative burden for each district and applied to approved State HIV Estimations 2017 estimates.No district in Tamil Nadu had an adult HIV prevalence of higher than 0.5% except for one, and the epidemic seems to be declining. In Maharashtra, the epidemic has shown a decline, with all except 5 districts showing an adult prevalence of less than 0.50%. In Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, few districts showed rising HIV prevalence. However, none had an adult prevalence of higher than 0.50%. In Mizoram, 6 of 8 districts showed a rising HIV trend with an adult prevalence of 1% or more in 5 districts.Disaggregation of state-level estimates by districts provided insights on epidemic diversity within the analyzed states. It also provided baseline evidence to measure the progress toward the goal of end of AIDS by 2030.

Persons living with HIV continue to present late for care: A trend analysis from 2011 to 2015.

CONTEXT: The clinical and prevention benefits of early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have led to the adoption of test and treat policy for HIV. Early diagnosis of HIV is crucial for maximal benefits from ART. AIMS: This study aims to assess trends in CD4 cell counts at diagnosis and determinants of late presentation. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: We analyzed 5-year data from a free HIV/sexually transmitted infection referral clinic immune. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Persons presenting for HIV testing from January 2011 to December 2015, for whom CD4 cell count results were available within 3 months of HIV diagnosis, were included in the analysis. Persons on ART were excluded from the study. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: The predictors of CD4 cell count at presentation were assessed using univariate and multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: Of 1001 persons diagnosed HIV-1 positive, 659 had received CD4 test within 3 months of diagnosis. The median CD4 count at presentation ranged from 212 to 352 cells/cmm in these 5 years and did not show any significant change with time. Nearly 40% had CD4 cell counts below 200 cells/cmm (AIDS); additionally, 23% presented below 350 cells/cmm. Older age (beta: -5.78; P = 0.001), education above matriculation (beta: -123.72; P = 0.014), having current opportunistic infections (beta: -173.58; P = 0.037), and being symptomatic (beta: -101.8; P = 0.002) were predictors of presenting at lower CD4 counts. CONCLUSION: Between 2011 and 2015, persons with HIV continued to present late in spite of changes in ART access program. Education focused on the benefits of early diagnosis and availability of free immediate treatment in the public sector, are crucial to the achievement of the India's 90-90-90 goals.