Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data.

It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

Genetic population substructure in bison at Yellowstone National Park.

The Yellowstone National Park bison herd is 1 of only 2 populations known to have continually persisted on their current landscape since pre-Columbian times. Over the last century, the census size of this herd has fluctuated from around 100 individuals to over 3000 animals. Previous studies involving radiotelemetry, tooth wear, and parturition timing provide evidence of at least 2 distinct groups of bison within Yellowstone National Park. To better understand the biology of Yellowstone bison, we investigated the potential for limited gene flow across this population using multilocus Bayesian clustering analysis. Two genetically distinct and clearly defined subpopulations were identified based on both genotypic diversity and allelic distributions. Genetic cluster assignments were highly correlated with sampling locations for a subgroup of live capture individuals. Furthermore, a comparison of the cluster assignments to the 2 principle winter cull sites revealed critical differences in migration patterns across years. The 2 Yellowstone subpopulations display levels of differentiation that are only slightly less than that between populations which have been geographically and reproductively isolated for over 40 years. The identification of cryptic population subdivision and genetic differentiation of this magnitude highlights the importance of this biological phenomenon in the management of wildlife species.

The ecological future of the North American bison: conceiving long-term, large-scale conservation of wildlife.

Many wide-ranging mammal species have experienced significant declines over the last 200 years; restoring these species will require long-term, large-scale recovery efforts. We highlight 5 attributes of a recent range-wide vision-setting exercise for ecological recovery of the North American bison (Bison bison) that are broadly applicable to other species and restoration targets. The result of the exercise, the "Vermejo Statement" on bison restoration, is explicitly (1) large scale, (2) long term, (3) inclusive, (4) fulfilling of different values, and (5) ambitious. It reads, in part, "Over the next century, the ecological recovery of the North American bison will occur when multiple large herds move freely across extensive landscapes within all major habitats of their historic range, interacting in ecologically significant ways with the fullest possible set of other native species, and inspiring, sustaining and connecting human cultures." We refined the vision into a scorecard that illustrates how individual bison herds can contribute to the vision. We also developed a set of maps and analyzed the current and potential future distributions of bison on the basis of expert assessment. Although more than 500,000 bison exist in North America today, we estimated they occupy <1% of their historical range and in no place express the full range of ecological and social values of previous times. By formulating an inclusive, affirmative, and specific vision through consultation with a wide range of stakeholders, we hope to provide a foundation for conservation of bison, and other wide-ranging species, over the next 100 years.

Historic distribution and challenges to bison recovery in the northern Chihuahuan desert.

Ecologists and conservationists have long assumed that large grazers, including bison (Bison bison), did not occur in post-Pleistocene southwestern North America. This perception has been influential in framing the debate over conservation and land use in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. The lack of an evolutionary history of large grazers is being used to challenge the validity of ranching as a conservation strategy and to limit the protection and reintroduction of bison as a significant component of desert grassland ecosystems. Archeological records and historical accounts from Mexican archives from AD 700 to the 19th century document that the historic range of the bison included northern Mexico and adjoining areas in the United States. The Janos-Hidalgo bison herd, one of the few free-ranging bison herds in North America, has moved between Chihuahua, Mexico, and New Mexico, United States, since at least the 1920s. The persistence of this cross-border bison herd in Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and shrublands demonstrates that the species can persist in desert landscapes. Additional lines of evidence include the existence of grazing-adapted grasslands and the results of experimental studies that document declines in vegetation density and diversity following the removal of large grazers. The Janos-Hidalgo herd was formed with animals from various sources at the turn of the 19th century. Yet the future of the herd is compromised by differing perceptions of the ecological and evolutionary role of bison in the Desert Grasslands of North America. In Mexico they are considered native and are protected by federal law, whereas in New Mexico, they are considered non-native livestock and therefore lack conservation status or federal protection. Evidence written in Spanish of the presence of bison south of the accepted range and evidence from the disciplines of archaeology and history illustrate how differences in language and academic disciplines, in addition to international boundaries, have acted as barriers in shaping comprehensive approaches to conservation. Bison recovery in the region depends on binational cooperation.

What limits the Serengeti zebra population?

The populations of the ecologically dominant ungulates in the Serengeti ecosystem (zebra, wildebeest and buffalo) have shown markedly different trends since the 1960s: the two ruminants both irrupted after the elimination of rinderpest in 1960, while the zebras have remained stable. The ruminants are resource limited (though parts of the buffalo population have been limited by poaching since the 1980s). The zebras' resource acquisition tactics should allow them to outcompete the ruminants, but their greater spatial dispersion makes them more available to predators, and it has been suggested that this population is limited by predation. To investigate the mechanisms involved in the population dynamics of Serengeti zebra, we compared population dynamics among the three species using demographic models based on age-class-specific survival and fecundity. The only major difference between zebra and the two ruminants occurred in the first-year survival. We show that wildebeest have a higher reproductive potential than zebra (younger age at first breeding and shorter generation time). Nevertheless, these differences in reproduction cannot account for the observed differences in the population trends between the zebra and the ruminants. On the other hand, among-species differences in first-year survival are great enough to account for the constancy of zebra population size. We conclude that the very low first-year survival of zebra limits this population. We provide new data on predation in the Serengeti and show that, as in other ecosystems, predation rates on zebras are high, so predation could hold the population in a "predator pit". However, lion and hyena feed principally on adult zebras, and further work is required to discover the process involved in the high mortality of foals.

INTROGRESSION OF COYOTE MITOCHONDRIAL DNA INTO SYMPATRIC NORTH AMERICAN GRAY WOLF POPULATIONS.

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genotypes of gray wolves and coyotes from localities throughout North America were determined using restriction fragment length polymorphisms. Of the 13 genotypes found among the wolves, 7 are clearly of coyote origin, indicating that genetic transfer of coyote mtDNA into wolf populations has occurred through hybridization. The transfer of mtDNA appears unidirectional from coyotes into wolves because no coyotes sampled have a wolf-derived mtDNA genotype. Wolves possessing coyote-derived genotypes are confined to a contiguous geographic region in Minnesota, Ontario, and Quebec, and the frequency of coyote-type mtDNA in these wolf populations is high (>50%). The ecological history of the hybrid zone suggests that hybridization is taking place in regions where coyotes have only recently become abundant following conversion of forests to farmlands. Dispersing male wolves unable to find conspecific mates may be pairing with female coyotes in deforested areas bordering wolf territories. Our results demonstrate that closely related species of mobile terrestrial vertebrates have the potential for extensive genetic exchange when ecological conditions change suddenly.