Venous thromboembolism risk in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a hospital record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) can occur in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and pulmonary embolism causes death in a minority of cases. The benefits of preventing VTE must be weighed against the risks. An accurate estimate of the incidence of VTE in ALS is crucial to assessing this balance. METHODS: This retrospective record-linkage cohort study derived data from the Hospital Episode Statistics database, covering admissions to England's hospitals from 1 April 2003 to 31 December 2019 and included 21 163 patients with ALS and 17 425 337 controls. Follow-up began at index admission and ended at VTE admission, death or 2 years (whichever came sooner). Adjusted HRs (aHRs) for VTE were calculated, controlling for confounders. RESULTS: The incidence of VTE in the ALS cohort was 18.8/1000 person-years. The relative risk of VTE in ALS was significantly greater than in controls (aHR 2.7, 95% CI 2.4 to 3.0). The relative risk of VTE in patients with ALS under 65 years was five times higher than controls (aHR 5.34, 95% CI 4.6 to 6.2), and higher than that of patients over 65 years compared with controls (aHR 1.86, 95% CI 1.62 to 2.12). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ALS are at a higher risk of developing VTE, but this is similar in magnitude to that reported in other chronic neurological conditions associated with immobility, such as multiple sclerosis, which do not routinely receive VTE prophylaxis. Those with ALS below the median age of symptom onset have a notably higher relative risk. A reappraisal of the case for routine antithrombotic therapy in those diagnosed with ALS now requires a randomised controlled trial.

Low risk of some common cancers in women with anorexia nervosa: Evidence from a national record-linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Some studies report that women with anorexia nervosa (AN) have lower risk than others of breast cancer, but increased risk of cancers of other sites. No work has been done to quantify the risk in the English population. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using a national linked dataset of Hospital Episode Statistics for 1999-2021. We selected individuals with a hospital admission for AN, and compared their relative risk (RR) of developing site-specific cancers, with that in a reference cohort. RESULTS: We identified 75 cancers in 15,029 women hospitalised with AN. There was a low RR of all cancers combined at 0.75 (95%CI 0.59-0.94), and, notably, low RR for breast cancer 0.43 (0.20-0.81), cancers of secondary and ill-defined sites 0.52 (0.26-0.93). The RR for parotid gland cancer was 4.4 (1.4-10.6) within a year of first recorded diagnosis of AN. In men, we found 12 cancers in 1413 individuals hospitalised with AN, but no increased risks beyond the first year of diagnosis of AN. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report on the association between AN and cancers in the all-England population. The study showed low rates of breast cancer, and of all cancers combined, in women hospitalised with AN. It is possible that some of the metabolic or hormonal changes observed in AN could work as a protective factor for breast cancer. More experimental work is needed to identify and explain these factors. The new finding on the higher risk of salivary gland tumours could inform clinicians caring for patients with AN.

Indirect effects of the covid-19 pandemic on childhood infection in England: population based observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes for childhood respiratory infections, severe invasive infections, and vaccine preventable disease in England. DESIGN: Population based observational study of 19 common childhood respiratory, severe invasive, and vaccine preventable infections, comparing hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes before and after the onset of the pandemic in England. SETTING: Hospital admission data from every NHS hospital in England from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021 with record linkage to national mortality data. POPULATION: Children aged 0-14 years admitted to an NHS hospital with a selected childhood infection from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: For each infection, numbers of hospital admissions every month from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021, percentage changes in the number of hospital admissions before and after 1 March 2020, and adjusted odds ratios to compare 60 day case fatality outcomes before and after 1 March 2020. RESULTS: After 1 March 2020, substantial and sustained reductions in hospital admissions were found for all but one of the 19 infective conditions studied. Among the respiratory infections, the greatest percentage reductions were for influenza (mean annual number admitted between 1 March 2017 and 29 February 2020 was 5379 and number of children admitted from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021 was 304, 94% reduction, 95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), and bronchiolitis (from 51 655 to 9423, 82% reduction, 95% confidence interval 79% to 84%). Among the severe invasive infections, the greatest reduction was for meningitis (50% reduction, 47% to 52%). For the vaccine preventable infections, reductions ranged from 53% (32% to 68%) for mumps to 90% (80% to 95%) for measles. Reductions were seen across all demographic subgroups and in children with underlying comorbidities. Corresponding decreases were also found for the absolute numbers of 60 day case fatalities, although the proportion of children admitted for pneumonia who died within 60 days increased (age-sex adjusted odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 2.05). More recent data indicate that some respiratory infections increased to higher levels than usual after May 2021. CONCLUSIONS: During the covid-19 pandemic, a range of behavioural changes (adoption of non-pharmacological interventions) and societal strategies (school closures, lockdowns, and restricted travel) were used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which also reduced admissions for common and severe childhood infections. Continued monitoring of these infections is required as social restrictions evolve.

Long-term trends in population-based hospitalisation rates for myocardial infarction in England: a national database study of 3.5 million admissions, 1968-2016.

AIM: To analyse the timing and scale of temporal changes in rates of hospitalised myocardial infarction (MI) in England by age and sex from 1968 to 2016. METHODS: MI admissions for adults aged 15-84 years were identified from electronic hospital data. We calculated age-standardised and age-specific rates, and examined trends using joinpoint. RESULTS: From 1968 to 2016, there were 3.5 million admissions for MI in England (68% men). Rates increased in the early years of the study in both men and women, peaked in the mid-1980s (355 per 100 000 population in men; 127 in women) and declined by 38.8% in men and 37.4% in women from 1990 to 2011. From 2012, however, modest increases were observed in both sexes. Long-term trends in rates over the study period varied by age and sex, with those aged 70 years and older having the greatest and most sustained increases in the early years (1968-1985). During subsequent years, rates decreased in most age groups until 2010-2011. The exception was younger women (35-49 years) and men (15-34 years) who experienced significant increases from the mid-1990s to 2007 (range +2.1%/year to 4.7%/year). From 2012 onwards, rates increased in all age groups except the oldest, with the most marked increases in men aged 15-34 years (7.2%/year) and women aged 40-49 (6.9%-7.3%/year) . CONCLUSION: Despite substantial declines in hospital admission rates for MI in England since 1990, the burden of annual admissions remains high. Continued surveillance of trends and coronary disease preventive strategies are warranted.

Group B Streptococcal Disease in England (1998 - 2017): A Population-based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in infants <90 days. In this study, the burden of GBS disease and mortality in young infants in England was assessed. METHODS: Using linked hospitalization records from every National Health Service (NHS) hospital from April 1, 1998 to March 31, 2017, we calculated annual GBS incidence in infants aged <90 days and, using regression models, compared their perinatal factors, rates of hospital-recorded disease outcomes, and all-cause infant mortality rates with those of the general infant population. RESULTS: 15 429 infants aged <90 days had a hospital-recorded diagnosis of GBS, giving an average annual incidence of 1.28 per 1000 live births (95% CI 1.26-1.30) with no significant trend over time. GBS-attributable mortality declined significantly from 0.044 (95% CI .029-.065) per 1000 live births in 2001 to 0.014 (95% CI .010-.026) in 2017 (annual percentage change -6.6, 95% CI -9.1 to -4.0). Infants with GBS had higher relative rates of visual impairment (HR 7.0 95% CI 4.1-12.1), cerebral palsy (HR 9.3 95% CI 6.6-13.3), hydrocephalus (HR 17.3 95% CI 13.8-21.6), and necrotizing enterocolitis (HR 18.8 95% CI 16.7-21.2) compared with those without GBS. CONCLUSIONS: Annual rates of GBS disease in infants have not changed over 19 years. The reduction in mortality is likely multifactorial and due to widespread implementation of antibiotics in at-risk mothers and babies, as well as advances in managing acutely unwell infants. New methods for prevention, such as maternal vaccination, must be prioritized.

Early career choices for emergency medicine and later career destinations: national surveys of UK medical graduates.

OBJECTIVE: To report doctors' early career preferences for emergency medicine, their eventual career destinations and factors influencing their career pathways. DESIGN: Self-administered questionnaire surveys. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: All graduates from all UK medical schools in selected graduation years between 1993 and 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Choices for preferred eventual specialty; eventual career destinations; certainty about choice of specialty; correspondence between early specialty choice for emergency medicine and eventually working in emergency medicine. RESULTS: Emergency medicine was chosen by 5.6% of graduates of 2015 when surveyed in 2016, and 7.1% of graduates of 2012 surveyed in 2015. These figures represent a modest increase compared with other recent cohorts, but there is no evidence of a sustained long-term trend of an increase. More men than women specified emergency medicine - in 2016 6.6% vs. 5.0%, and in 2015 7.9% vs. 6.5%. Doctors choosing emergency medicine were less certain about their choice than doctors choosing other specialties. Of graduates of 2005 who chose emergency medicine in year 1, only 18% were working in emergency medicine in year 10. Looking backwards, from destinations to early choices, 46% of 2005 graduates working in emergency medicine in 2015 had specified emergency medicine as their choice of eventual specialty in year 1. CONCLUSIONS: There was no substantial increase across the cohorts in choices for emergency medicine. Policy should address how to encourage more doctors to choose the specialty, and to create a future UK health service environment in which those who choose emergency medicine early on do not later change their minds in large numbers.

Risk of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis: Record-Linkage Studies.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of psychiatric comorbidity in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the risk of schizophrenia and bipolar disorder in MS patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort analyses were performed using an all-England national linked Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) dataset (1999-2016) and to determine whether schizophrenia or bipolar disorder are more commonly diagnosed subsequently in people with MS (n=128,194), and whether MS is more commonly diagnosed subsequently in people with schizophrenia (n=384,188) or bipolar disorder (n=203,592), than would be expected when compared with a reference cohort (~15 million people) after adjusting for age and other factors. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Findings were dependent on whether the index and subsequent diagnoses were selected as the primary reason for hospital admission or were taken from anywhere on the hospital record. When searching for diagnoses anywhere on the hospital record, there was a significantly elevated risk of subsequent schizophrenia (aHR 1.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40 to 1.60) and of bipolar disorder (aHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.24) in people with prior-recorded MS and of subsequent MS in people with prior-recorded schizophrenia (aHR 1.26, 1.15-1.37) or bipolar disorder (aHR 1.73, 1.57-1.91), but most of these associations were reduced to null when analyses were confined to diagnoses recorded as the primary reason for admission. CONCLUSION: Further research is needed to investigate the potential association between MS and schizophrenia and/or bipolar disorder as it may shed light on underlying pathophysiology and help identify potential shared risk factors.

Junior doctors' aspirations for careers in ophthalmology: 40 years of surveys of UK medical graduates.

OBJECTIVE: Using data from 40 years of national surveys of UK medical graduates, we report on ophthalmology as a career choice. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Self-administered questionnaire surveys of all graduates from all UK medical schools in selected years of qualification between 1974 and 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Career specialty preferences of doctors one, three, and five years after graduation; career specialty destinations 10 years after graduation. RESULTS: One year after graduation, ophthalmology was the first career preference of 1.6% of the qualifiers of 1974-83, 2.2% of 1993-2002, and 1.8% of 2005-15. The corresponding percentages three years after graduation were 1.5, 1.8, and 1.2%. Men were more likely than women to choose ophthalmology: among graduates of 2005-15, 2.4% of men and 1.4% of women did so at one year, as did 1.7% of men and 0.7% of women at five years. Seventy per cent of doctors practising as ophthalmologists 10 years after qualification had told us in their first post-qualification year that ophthalmology was their first choice of career. CONCLUSIONS: There has been no systematic change in recent years in the proportion of recent medical graduates intending to have a career in ophthalmology when surveyed one year after graduation. However, the proportion at three and five years after graduation was lower than that at year 1. Suggestions for maintaining interest in the specialty include improved career advice, greater early clinical exposure to ophthalmology, and improved access to flexible training. Most practising ophthalmologists had made early decisions that this was their intended career.

Congenital viral infections in England over five decades: a population-based observational study.

BACKGROUND: Congenital viral infections cause substantial long-term morbidity but population-based data about diagnosis rates are scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term trends in congenital viral infections in England and to report on how the rates of these infections might have changed with improved methods for detection, the introduction of the two-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine in 1996, and the implementation of the Newborn Hearing Screening Programme (NHSP) in 2006. METHODS: For this population-based, observational cohort study, we used national and regional hospitalisation data from 1968 to 2016 in England (Hospital In-Patient Enquiry, Hospital Episode Statistics, and Oxford Record Linkage Study) to calculate annual rates of hospital discharges coded with-and individuals aged younger than 1 month diagnosed with-congenital cytomegalovirus, herpes simplex virus (HSV), varicella zoster virus (VZV), and rubella. We investigated associations of congenital cytomegalovirus, HSV, and VZV with perinatal and maternal factors (sex, mother's ethnicity, mode of delivery, gestational age, birthweight, mother's age, mother's index of multiple deprivation, and number of previous pregnancies). FINDINGS: In 2016, discharge rates per 100 000 infant population were 22·3 (95% CI 18·8-26·1) for congenital cytomegalovirus, 17·6 (14·6-21·1) for HSV, 32·6 (28·4-37·2) for VZV, and 0·15 (0·0-0·8) for rubella. Compared with earlier years of the study, the discharge rate in 2016 was higher for congenital cytomegalovirus, HSV, and VZV, whereas it was lower for rubella. For congenital cytomegalovirus, there was a significant step-increase between 2006 and 2007 following implementation of the NHSP (rate ratio comparing the trend line post-NHSP with that pre-NHSP 1·55 [95% CI 1·12-2·14], p=0·0072). Congenital cytomegalovirus infection was associated with birthweight less than 1 kg, maternal age younger than 25 years, socioeconomically deprived households, casearean section, and mothers of black ethnicity. Congenital HSV infection was associated with maternal age younger than 20 years, gestational age less than 32 weeks, and vaginal and emergency caesarean section deliveries, while VZV infection was associated with increased parity and black and south Asian ethnicities. INTERPRETATION: The increase in hospital discharges coded with congenital cytomegalovirus is most likely due to the introduction of sensitive diagnostic techniques and retrospective diagnoses made in infants after implementation of the NHSP. Public health strategies to improve prevention and treatment of congenital viral infections are urgently warranted. The decrease in discharges for rubella is most likely due to the MMR vaccine. FUNDING: None.

Career choices for obstetrics and gynaecology: recent updates from 40 years of national surveys of UK medical graduates.

OBJECTIVE: To report doctors' early career choices for obstetrics and gynaecology, their eventual career destinations and factors influencing their career pathways. DESIGN: Multi-cohort multi-purpose national questionnaire surveys of medical graduates in selected graduation years between 1974 and 2015. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: UK-trained medical graduates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Career specialty choices; certainty about specialty choice; factors which influenced doctors' career choices; career specialty destinations 10 years after graduation. RESULTS: Obstetrics and Gynaecology was the first choice of career for 5.7% of post-2002 graduates in year 1, 4.3% in year 3 and 3.8% in year 5. A much higher percentage of women than men specified Obstetrics and Gynaecology as their first choice: in year 1, 7.7% of women and 2.3% of men did so. The gender gap has widened since the 1970s and 1980s. In recent years, of those who specified Obstetrics and Gynaecology as their first choice in year 1 after graduation, 48% were working in Obstetrics and Gynaecology in year 10 (63% of men, 45% of women). Looking backwards from career destinations, 85% of doctors working in Obstetrics and Gynaecology in year 10 had specified Obstetrics and Gynaecology as a first, second or third choice of preferred career in year 1. CONCLUSIONS: Interest in Obstetrics and Gynaecology among UK graduates appears to be exceeding the demand for new specialists. Policy needs to address risks of over-production of trainees and ensure that some graduates interested in Obstetrics and Gynaecology consider alternative careers. The large gender imbalance should encourage consideration of the reasons for men choosing Obstetrics and Gynaecology in falling numbers.

Junior doctors' early career choices do not predict career destination in neurology: 40 years of surveys of UK medical graduates.

BACKGROUND: The rapidly rising rates of brain diseases due to the growing ageing population and the explosion in treatment options for many neurological conditions increase the demand for neurologists. We report trends in doctors' career choices for neurology; investigate factors driving their choices; and compare doctors' original choices with their specialty destinations. METHODS: A multi-cohort, multi-purpose nation-wide study using both online and postal questionnaires collected data on career choice, influencing factors, and career destinations. UK-trained doctors completed questionnaires at one, three, five, and ten years after qualification. They were classified into three groups: graduates of 1974-1983, graduates of 1993-2002, and graduates of 2005-2015. RESULTS: Neurology was more popular among graduates of 2005-2015 than earlier graduates; however, its attraction for graduates of 2005-2015 doctors reduced over time from graduation. A higher percentage of men than women doctors chose neurology as their first career choice. For instance, among graduates of 2005-2015, 2.2% of men and 1.1% of women preferred neurology as first choice in year 1. The most influential factor on career choice was "enthusiasm for and commitment to the specialty" in all cohorts and all years after graduation. Only 39% who chose neurology in year 1 progressed to become neurologists later. Conversely, only 28% of practicing neurologists in our study had decided to become neurologists in their first year after qualification. By year 3 this figure had risen to 65%, and by year 5 to 76%. CONCLUSIONS: Career decision-making among UK medical graduates is complicated. Early choices for neurology were not highly predictive of career destinations. Some influential factors in this process were identified. Improving mentoring programmes to support medical graduates, provide career counselling, develop professionalism, and increase their interest in neurology were suggested.

Determinants of the decline in mortality from acute stroke in England: linked national database study of 795 869 adults.

OBJECTIVES: To study trends in stroke mortality rates, event rates, and case fatality, and to explain the extent to which the reduction in stroke mortality rates was influenced by changes in stroke event rates or case fatality. DESIGN: Population based study. SETTING: Person linked routine hospital and mortality data, England. PARTICIPANTS: 795 869 adults aged 20 and older who were admitted to hospital with acute stroke or died from stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stroke mortality rates, stroke event rates (stroke admission or stroke death without admission), and case fatality within 30 days after stroke. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2010 stroke mortality rates decreased by 55%, stroke event rates by 20%, and case fatality by 40%. The study population included 358 599 (45%) men and 437 270 (55%) women. Average annual change in mortality rate was -6.0% (95% confidence interval -6.2% to -5.8%) in men and -6.1% (-6.3% to -6.0%) in women, in stroke event rate was -1.3% (-1.4% to -1.2%) in men and -2.1% (-2.2 to -2.0) in women, and in case fatality was -4.7% (-4.9% to -4.5%) in men and -4.4% (-4.5% to -4.2%) in women. Mortality and case fatality but not event rate declined in all age groups: the stroke event rate decreased in older people but increased by 2% each year in adults aged 35 to 54 years. Of the total decline in mortality rates, 71% was attributed to the decline in case fatality (78% in men and 66% in women) and the remainder to the reduction in stroke event rates. The contribution of the two factors varied between age groups. Whereas the reduction in mortality rates in people younger than 55 years was due to the reduction in case fatality, in the oldest age group (≥85 years) reductions in case fatality and event rates contributed nearly equally. CONCLUSIONS: Declines in case fatality, probably driven by improvements in stroke care, contributed more than declines in event rates to the overall reduction in stroke mortality. Mortality reduction in men and women younger than 55 was solely a result of a decrease in case fatality, whereas stroke event rates increased in the age group 35 to 54 years. The increase in stroke event rates in young adults is a concern. This suggests that stroke prevention needs to be strengthened to reduce the occurrence of stroke in people younger than 55 years.

Comparative trends in coronary heart disease subgroup hospitalisation rates in England and Australia.

BACKGROUND: Population-based coronary heart disease (CHD) studies have focused on myocardial infarction (MI) with limited data on trends across the spectrum of CHD. We investigated trends in hospitalisation rates for acute and chronic CHD subgroups in England and Australia from 1996 to 2013. METHODS: CHD hospitalisations for individuals aged 35-84 years were identified from electronic hospital data from 1996 to 2013 for England and Australia and from the Oxford Region and Western Australia. CHD subgroups identified were acute coronary syndromes (ACS) (MI and unstable angina) and chronic CHD (stable angina and 'other CHD'). We calculated age-standardised and age-specific rates and estimated annual changes (95% CI) from age-adjusted Poisson regression. RESULTS: From 1996 to 2013, there were 4.9 million CHD hospitalisations in England and 2.6 million in Australia (67% men). From 1996 to 2003, there was between-country variation in the direction of trends in ACS and chronic CHD hospitalisation rates (p<0.001). During 2004-2013, reductions in ACS hospitalisation rates were greater than for chronic CHD hospitalisation rates in both countries, with the largest subgroup declines in unstable angina (England: men: -7.1 %/year, 95% CI -7.2 to -7.0; women: -7.5 %/year, 95% CI -7.7 to -7.3; Australia: men: -8.5 %/year, 95% CI -8.6 to -8.4; women: -8.6 %/year, 95% CI -8.8 to -8.4). Other CHD rates increased in individuals aged 75-84 years in both countries. Chronic CHD comprised half of all CHD admissions, with the majority involving angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Since 2004, rates of all CHD subgroups have fallen, with greater declines in acute than chronic presentations. The slower declines and high proportion of chronic CHD admissions undergoing coronary procedures requires greater focus.

Views of UK doctors in training on the timing of choosing a clinical specialty: quantitative and qualitative analysis of surveys 3 years after graduation.

BACKGROUND: Workforce studies show a declining proportion of UK junior doctors proceeding directly to specialist training, with many taking career breaks. Doctors may be choosing to delay this important career decision. AIM: To assess doctors' views on the timing of choosing a clinical specialty. METHODS: Surveys of two cohorts of UK-trained doctors 3 years after qualification, in 2011 and 2015. RESULTS: Presented with the statement 'I had to choose my career specialty too soon after qualification', 61% agreed (27% strongly) and 22% disagreed (3% strongly disagreed). Doctors least certain about their choice of specialty were most likely to agree (81%), compared with those who were more confident (72%) or were definite regarding their choice of long-term specialty (54%). Doctors not in higher specialist training were more likely to agree with this statement than those who were (72% vs 59%). Graduate medical school entrants (ie, those who had completed prior degrees) were less likely to agree than non-graduates (56% vs 62%). Qualitative analysis of free text comments identified three themes as reasons why doctors felt rushed into choosing their future career: insufficient exposure to a wide range of specialties; a desire for a greater breadth of experience of medicine in general; and inadequate career advice. CONCLUSIONS: Most UK-trained doctors feel rushed into choosing their long-term career specialty. Doctors find this difficult because they lack sufficient medical experience and adequate career advice to make sound choices. Workforce trainers and planners should enable greater flexibility in training pathways and should further improve existing career guidance.

Trends in the Incidence and Recurrence of Inpatient-Treated Spontaneous Pneumothorax, 1968-2016.

Importance: Spontaneous pneumothorax is a common disease known to have an unusual epidemiological profile, but there are limited contemporary population-based data. Objective: To estimate the incidence of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax, its recurrence and trends over time using large, longstanding hospitalization data sets in England. Design, Setting, and Participants: A population-based epidemiological study was conducted using an English national data set and an English regional data set, each spanning 1968 to 2016, and including 170 929 hospital admission records of patients 15 years and older. Final date of the study period was December 31, 2016. Exposures: Calendar year (for incidence) and readmission to hospital for spontaneous pneumothorax (for recurrence). Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were rates of hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax and recurrence, defined as a subsequent hospital readmission with spontaneous pneumothorax. Record-linkage was used to identify multiple admissions per person and comorbidity. Risk factors for recurrence over 5 years of follow-up were assessed using cumulative time-to-failure analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: From 1968 to 2016, there were 170 929 hospital admissions for spontaneous pneumothorax (median age, 44 years [IQR, 26-88]; 73.0% male). In 2016, there were 14.1 spontaneous pneumothorax admissions per 100 000 population 15 years and older (95% CI, 13.7-14.4), a significant increase compared with earlier years, up from 9.1 (95% CI, 8.1-10.1) in 1968. The population-based rate per 100 000 population 15 years and older was higher for males (20.8 [95% CI, 20.2-21.4]) than for females (7.6 [95% CI, 7.2-7.9]). Of patients with spontaneous pneumothorax, 60.8% (95% CI, 59.5%-62.0%) had chronic lung disease. Record-linkage analysis demonstrated that the overall increase in admissions over time could be due in part to an increase in repeat admissions, but there were also significant increases in the annual rate of first-known spontaneous pneumothorax admissions in some population subgroups, for example in women 65 years and older (annual percentage change from 1968 to 2016, 4.08 [95% CI, 3.33-4.82], P < .001). The probability of recurrence within 5 years was similar by sex (25.5% [95% CI, 25.1%-25.9%] for males vs 26.0% [95% CI, 25.3%-26.7%] for females), but there was variation by age group and presence of chronic lung disease. For example, the probability of readmission within 5 years among males aged 15 to 34 years with chronic lung disease was 39.2% (95% CI, 37.7%-40.7%) compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 18.2%-21.1%) in men 65 years and older without chronic lung disease. Conclusions and Relevance: This study provides contemporary information regarding the trends in incidence and recurrence of inpatient-treated spontaneous pneumothorax.

Career choices for nephrology and factors influencing them: surveys of UK medical graduates.

OBJECTIVES: To study early and eventual career choices for nephrology among UK medical graduates and investigate factors which influenced career preferences. DESIGN: Self-completed survey questionnaires mailed to medical graduates 1, 3, 5 and 10 years after graduation. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: UK medical graduates in 15 year-of-qualification cohorts between 1974 and 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Early career specialty choices, career specialty destinations at 10 years and ratings of factors affecting career choices. RESULTS: Around 0.4%-1.1% of these junior doctors expressed a career preference for nephrology, varying by year of qualification and years after qualification. Among all graduates of 1993-2002 combined, 0.4% expressed a career preference for nephrology 1 year after qualification rising to 1.0% in year 5. Among graduates of 2005-2008, the corresponding figures were 1.0% in year 1 falling to 0.7% in year 5. Only 18% of doctors who chose nephrology in year 1 eventually became nephrologists. Of doctors who were practising as nephrologists for 10 years and more after qualification, 74% of the women and 56% of the men had decided to pursue a career in nephrology by year 5 after qualification. 'Enthusiasm/commitment' had a great deal of influence on those who chose nephrology, for all cohorts and all years studied. CONCLUSIONS: The most recent data suggest that the proportion of young doctors who sustain an interest in nephrology through the early postgraduate training years may be lower than among their predecessors. Efforts are needed to reverse the declining trend and increase interest in nephrology.

Retirement ages of senior UK doctors: national surveys of the medical graduates of 1974 and 1977.

OBJECTIVE: To report on retirement ages of two cohorts of senior doctors in the latter stages of their careers. DESIGN: Questionnaires sent in 2014 to all medical graduates of 1974 and 1977. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: 3695 UK medical graduates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Retirement status by age at the time of the survey and age at retirement if retired. Planned retirement ages and retirement plans if not retired. RESULTS: Of contactable doctors, 85% responded. 43.7% of all responding doctors had fully retired, 25.9% had 'retired and returned' for some medical work, 18.3% had not retired and were working full-time in medicine, 10.7% had not retired and were working part-time in medicine and 1.4% were either doing non-medical work or did not give details of their employment status. The average actual retirement age (including those who had retired but subsequently returned) was 59.6 years (men 59.9, women 58.9). Psychiatrists (58.3) and general practitioners (GPs) (59.5) retired at a slightly younger age than radiologists (60.4), surgeons (60.1) and hospital specialists (60.0). More GPs (54%) than surgeons (26%) or hospital medical specialists (34%) were fully retired, and there were substantial variations in retirement rates in other specialties. Sixty-three per cent of women GPs were fully retired. CONCLUSIONS: Gender and specialty differences in retirement ages were apparent and are worthy of qualitative study to establish underlying reasons in those specialties where earlier retirement is more common. There is a general societal expectation that people will retire at increasingly elderly ages; but the doctors in this national study retired relatively young.

Career Choices and Career Progression of Junior Doctors in Dermatology: Surveys of UK Medical Graduates.

OBJECTIVE: To report UK-trained doctors' career choices for dermatology, career destinations, and factors influencing career pathways. METHODS: Multicohort multipurpose longitudinal surveys of UK-trained doctors who graduated between 1974 and 2015. RESULTS: In all, 40,412 doctors (58% of graduates) responded in year 1, 31,466 (64%) in year 3, and 24,970 (67%) in year 5. One year after graduation, 1.7% of women and 0.6% of men made dermatology their first choice but by five years after graduation the respective figures were 1.0% and 0.7%. Compared to their predecessors, its popularity fell more substantially from years 1 to 5 among recent graduates (2005-15), particularly for women (from 2.1% in year 1 to 0.8% in year 5) compared with a fall from 0.8% to 0.5% among men. The most important factor influencing dermatology choice was "hours/working conditions": in year one, 69% regarded this as important compared with 31% of those choosing other hospital physician specialties. Only 18% of respondents who chose dermatology at year 1 eventually worked in it; however, almost all practising dermatologists (94%), 10 years after qualifying, had made their future career decision by year 5. CONCLUSION: Dermatology is popular among female UK graduates. Most dermatologists made their career decision late but decisively.

Career specialty choices of UK medical graduates of 2015 compared with earlier cohorts: questionnaire surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To report the career specialty choices of UK medical graduates of 2015 one year after graduation and to compare these with the choices made at the same postgraduate stage by previous cohorts. DESIGN: National survey using online and postal questionnaires. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: UK-trained medical graduates. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Grouped and individual specialty choices. RESULTS: The response rate was 41.3% (3040/7095). Among the graduates of 2015, general practice (27.8% of first choices) and hospital medical specialties (26.5%) were the most frequent first choices of long-term career. First choices for general practice declined among women from 36.1% for the 2005-2009 cohorts to 33.3% for the 2015 cohort, and among men from 22.4% for the 2005-2009 cohorts to 19.3% for the 2015 cohort. First choices for surgery declined among men (from 29.5% for the 2005-2009 cohorts to 21.7% for the 2015 cohort), but not among women (12.3% for the 2005-2009 cohorts and 12.5% for the 2015 cohort). There was an increase in the percentage of first choices for anaesthesia, psychiatry, radiology and careers outside medicine. Anaesthesia, oncology, paediatrics and radiology increased in popularity over time among men, but not among women. CONCLUSIONS: Career choices for general practice remain low. Other current shortage specialties, apart from radiology and psychiatry, are not showing an increase in the number of doctors who choose them. Large gender differences remain in the choices for some specialties. Further work is needed into the determinants of junior doctors' choices for shortage specialties and those with large gender imbalances.