Prognostic factors of hepatic encephalopathy after portacaval anastomosis: a multivariate analysis in 50 patients.

Portacaval anastomosis has proved to be effective in avoiding active and recurrent hemorrhage from gastroesophageal varices in liver cirrhosis. However, hepatic encephalopathy is the most common and serious complication of this procedure. The aim of this study was to investigate by multivariate analysis the predictive factors of development of hepatic encephalopathy in 50 Child's A and B cirrhotic patients whose variceal bleeding was treated with emergency (n = 17) or elective (n = 33) portacaval anastomosis. The etiology of the cirrhosis was alcoholic in 74% of cases. The mean follow-up was 22.7 +/- 16.6 months (range 1-60 months). The 2-yr probability of suffering from at least one episode of hepatic encephalopathy in the overall group was 43%. The multivariate analyses (Cox's regression method) of 37 variables based upon clinical history, physical examination, and laboratory data disclosed that only five of these variables had independent predictive value: need for diuretic treatment in the days prior to surgery, absence of hepatomegaly, and serum levels of total bilirubin, gamma-globulin, and hemoglobin. According to the contribution of each one of these factors to the final model, a prognostic index was obtained which allowed the division of patients in two different groups of risk for developing hepatic encephalopathy (20% and 74%, respectively, after 2 yr of surgery; p = 0.0002). This index may help to better choose those candidates for portacaval anastomosis.

Portacaval shunt versus endoscopic sclerotherapy in the elective treatment of variceal hemorrhage.

Eighty-two consecutive Child-Campbell class A and B cirrhotic patients were included in a prospective controlled trial to assess the efficacy and safety of portacaval anastomosis vs. endoscopic sclerotherapy as elective treatment of variceal hemorrhage. Forty-one patients were randomized to portacaval anastomosis and 41 to sclerotherapy. After excluding dropouts, 34 patients were treated with portacaval anastomosis and 35 with sclerotherapy. The incidence of variceal rebleeding during follow-up (mean +/- SD, 20.6 +/- 14.2 months) was significantly higher in the sclerotherapy than in the portacaval groups, either considering the overall treated group or only patients completing sclerotherapy (40% and 25% vs. 2.9%; P = 0.0002 and P = 0.01, respectively). The 2-year probability of suffering from at least one episode of hepatic encephalopathy was significantly higher in patients submitted to portacaval anastomosis than in those treated with endoscopic sclerotherapy (40% vs. 12%; P = 0.04). However, disabling encephalopathy only appeared in 3 of 34 patients who underwent surgery (8.8%). Early and long-term mortality did not differ between the therapeutic groups; 2-year survival rates were 83% for portacaval anastomosis and 79% for sclerotherapy. It is concluded that portacaval anastomosis is more effective than endoscopic sclerotherapy in preventing variceal rebleeding in spite of the greater incidence of hepatic encephalopathy. The role of portacaval anastomosis in the elective treatment of variceal rebleeding should be reassessed.