Geographical characteristics and influencing factors of the influenza epidemic in Hubei, China, from 2009 to 2019.

Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease that commonly affects people and has an important impact on public health. Based on influenza incidence data from 103 counties in Hubei Province from 2009 to 2019, this study used time series analysis and geospatial analysis to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the influenza epidemic and its influencing factors. The results reveal significant spatial-temporal clustering of the influenza epidemic in Hubei Province. Influenza mainly occurs in winter and spring of each year (from December to March of the next year), with the highest incidence rate observed in 2019 and an overall upward trend in recent years. There were significant spatial and urban-rural differences in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province, with the eastern region being more seriously affected than the central and western regions, and the urban regions more seriously affected than the rural region. Hubei's influenza epidemic showed an obvious spatial agglomeration distribution from 2009 to 2019, with the strongest clustering in winter. The hot spot areas of interannual variation in influenza were mainly distributed in eastern and western Hubei, and the cold spot areas were distributed in north-central Hubei. In addition, the cold hot spot areas of influenza epidemics varied from season to season. The seasonal changes in influenza prevalence in Hubei Province are mainly governed by meteorological factors, such as temperature, sunshine, precipitation, humidity, and wind speed. Low temperature, less rain, less sunshine, low wind speed and humid weather will increase the risk of contracting influenza; the interannual changes and spatial differentiation of influenza are mainly influenced by socioeconomic factors, such as road density, number of health technicians per 1,000 population, urbanization rate and population density. The strength of influenza's influencing factors in Hubei Province exhibits significant spatial variation, but in general, the formation of spatial variation of influenza in Hubei Province is still the result of the joint action of socioeconomic factors and natural meteorological factors. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of influenza in Hubei Province and its influencing factors can provide a reasonable decision-making basis for influenza prevention and control and public health development in Hubei Province and can also effectively improve the scientific understanding of the public with respect to influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases to reduce the influenza incidence, which also has reference significance for the prevention and control of influenza and other respiratory infectious diseases in other countries or regions.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Hubei, China from 2009 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a public health issue in Hubei and studies of- spatiotemporal clustering at a fine scale are limited. The purpose of this research was to analyze the epidemiological characteristics, temporal variation characteristics, and spatiotemporal clustering of HFMD cases at the town level from 2009 to 2019 to improve public health outcomes. METHODS: Mathematical statistics, a seasonal index, wavelet analysis, and spatiotemporal scans were used to analyze epidemiological characteristics, time series trends, and spatiotemporal clusters of HFMD in Hubei. RESULTS: EV-A71 (Enterovirus A71) and CVA16 (Coxsackievirus A16) constitute the two primary pathogens of the HFMD epidemic in Hubei, among which EV-A71 is the dominant pathogen, especially in 2016. In terms of age distribution, a major peak occurred at 0-5 years and a very small increase appeared at 25-35 years, with the former having a higher incidence among males than females and the latter having the opposite difference between males and females. The number/rate of HFMD cases exhibited a considerable increase followed by a moderate decline from 2009 to 2019, with the first large peak in April-July and a smaller peak in November-December. HFMD in Hubei exhibited the characteristics of a 270-day cycle with multiscale nesting, which was similar to the periodicity of HFMD cases caused by EV-A71 (9 months). Cities with a higher incidence of HFMD formed a part of an "A-shaped urban skeleton". Subdistricts had the highest incidence of HFMD, followed by towns and villages. The spatiotemporal scan results showed one most likely cluster and 22 secondary clusters, which was consistent with the geographic location of railways and rivers in Hubei. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may be helpful in the prevention and control of HFMD transmission and in implementing effective measures in Hubei Province.