Geospatial modelling to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A in Mexico - An ecological study.

The aim of this study was to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A (EOITA) in Mexico, using geospatial models. A spatial database of 1973 outbreaks of influenza worldwide was used to develop risk models accounting for natural (natural threat), anthropic (man-made) and environmental (combination of the above) transmission. Then, a virus establishment risk model; an introduction model of influenza A developed in another study; and the three models mentioned were utilized using multi-criteria spatial evaluation supported by geographically weighted regression (GWR), receiver operating characteristic analysis and Moran's I. The results show that environmental risk was concentrated along the Gulf and Pacific coasts, the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Baja California. The identified risk for EOITA in Mexico were: 15.6% and 4.8%, by natural and anthropic risk, respectively, while 18.5% presented simultaneous environmental, natural and anthropic risk. Overall, 28.1% of localities in Mexico presented a High/High risk for the establishment of influenza type A (area under the curve=0.923, P<0.001; GWR, r2=0.840, P<0.001; Moran's I =0.79, P<0.001). Hence, these geospatial models were able to robustly estimate those areas susceptible to EOITA, where the results obtained show the relation between the geographical area and the different effects on health. The information obtained should help devising and directing strategies leading to efficient prevention and sound administration of both human and financial resources.

Narrativas sobre morbilidad materna extrema en sobrevivientes a esta experiencia en México / Narratives of obstetric risk in survivors to extreme maternal morbidity

Objetivo: analizar las narrativas que sobre morbilidad materna extrema han desarrollado mujeres sobrevivientes a esta experiencia en san luis potosí, méxico. Metodología: estudio biográfico-narrativo en el que mediante muestreo intencional inicial y teórico posteriormente, fueron seleccionadas 20 mujeres para recuperar sus relatos sobre la experiencia. Las narrativas compartidas fueron sometidas a análisis paradigmático de contenido. Resultados principales: con marco en la antropología del riesgo, se identificó que las narrativas que prevalecen sobre morbilidad materna extrema son: a) como sinónimo de muerte, b) como evento fortuito y efímero, y c) como una situación ilegítima o inventada. Conclusión: las narrativas que las mujeres han construido sobre su experiencia de morbilidad materna extrema son diversas, sostenidas en emociones que van desde el miedo, hasta la aceptación e incredulidad; sin embargo, ninguna de estas narrativas aporta al desarrollo de una agencia real para prevenir un riesgo obstétrico futuro

Objective: to analyze the narratives about extreme maternal morbidity developed by women survivors of this experience in san luis potosí, mexico. Methods: biographicalnarrative study in which, through initial intentional sampling and theoretical sampling, 20 women were selected to recover their report son her experiences. The shared narratives were transcribed and later subjected to a paradigmatic analysis of content. Results: with a framework in the anthropology of risk it was identified that the narratives that prevail over extreme maternal morbidity are: a) as a synonym of death, b) as a fortuitous and ephemeral event, and c) as an illegitimate or invented situation. Conclusions: the narratives that women have built on their experience of extreme maternal morbidity are diverse, sustained in emotions ranging from fear to acceptance and disbelief; however, none of these narratives contributes to the development of a real agency to prevent a future obstetric risk

Thyroid hormones and breast cancer association according to menopausal status and body mass index.

BACKGROUND: Thyroxine (T4) has been positively associated with tumor cell proliferation, while the effect of triiodothyronine (T3) on cell proliferation has not been well-established because it differs according to the type of cell line used. In Mexico, it has been reported that 14.5% of adult women have some type of thyroid dysfunction and abnormalities in thyroid function tests have been observed in a variety of non-thyroidal illnesses, including breast cancer (BC). These abnormalities might change with body mass index (BMI) because thyroid hormones are involved in the regulation of various metabolic pathways and probably by menopausal status because obesity has been negatively associated with BC in premenopausal women and has been positively associated with BC in postmenopausal women. METHODS: To assess the association between serum thyroid hormone concentration (T4 and T3) and BC and the influence of obesity as an effect modifier of this relationship in premenopausal and postmenopausal women, we measured serum thyroid hormone and thyroid antibody levels in 682 patients with incident breast cancer (cases) and 731 controls, who participated in a population-based case-control study performed from 2004 to 2007 in three states of Mexico. We tested the association of total T4 (TT4) and total T3 (TT3) stratifying by menopausal status and body mass index (BMI), and adjusted for other health and demographic risk factors using logistic regressions models. RESULTS: Higher serum total T4 (TT4) concentrations were associated with BC in both premenopausal (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation = 5.98, 95% CI 3.01-11.90) and postmenopausal women (OR per standard deviation = 2.81, 95% CI 2.17-3.65). In premenopausal women, the effect of TT4 decreased as BMI increased while the opposite was observed in postmenopausal women. The significance of the effect modification was marginal (p = 0.059) in postmenopausal women and was not significant in premenopausal women (p = 0.22). Lower TT3 concentrations were associated with BC in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and no effect modification was observed. CONCLUSIONS: There is a strong association between BC and serum concentrations of TT3 and TT4; this needs to be further investigated to understand why it happens and how important it is to consider these alterations in treatment.

[Future type 2 diabetes mellitus scenario estimated with a predictive dynamic simulation model]. / Escenario futuro de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado con un modelo de simulación dinámico predictivo.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). METHODS: A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. RESULTS: The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. CONCLUSION: The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.

Agenciamientos y resistencias en el cuidado obstétrico comunitario tras la capacitación institucional / Assemblages and resistances in the community obstetrical care after institutional training

Objetivo: Conocer los agenciamientos y resistencias que narran parteras y auxiliares de salud tras la capacitación institucional, con el fin de planear procesos de capacitación pertinentes a las necesidades de estos actores y sus contextos. Metodología: Estudio cualitativo, la información se recuperó mediante entrevistas en grupos focales. Se aplicó análisis sociológico de discurso. Resultados: El principal agenciamiento fue la centralización de su actuar en el tamizaje de señales de alarma, la resistencia más mencionada fue la negación por abandonar la herbolaria y por realizar el acompañamiento de las mujeres a los servicios de salud, toda vez que se narran discriminados en estos espacios. Conclusión: Es necesario incorporar la perspectiva intercultural en los procesos de capacitación de los actores locales, así como plantear estrategias dirigidas a la formación de los profesionales de salud en el marco de los derechos humanos y la interculturalidad (AU)

Objective: Knowing the assemblages and resistance that midwives and health aides tell after the institutional training, in order to plan training processes pertinent to the needs of these actors and their contexts Methods: Qualitative study, information was collected by focus group interviews. sociological discourse analysis was applied. Results: The lead agency was the focus his performance in the screening of alarm signals, the main resistance was the denial to leave herbalism and make the accompaniment of women to health services because they relate to discrimination in these spaces. Conclusions: It is necessary to incorporate an intercultural perspective in the process of empowering local actors and raising aimed at training of health professionals in the context of human rights and intercultural strategies (AU)

Escenario futuro de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado con un modelo de simulación dinámico predictivo

Objetivo. Desarrollar un modelo dinámico predictivo para estimar escenarios futuros de la tasa de incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (TIDM2). Métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico retrospectivo durante el periodo 2013-2015 en la ciudad de San Luis Potosí, México. Se analizaron datos oficiales secundarios de los 58 municipios que integran el estado de San Luis Potosí. Se aplicó la correlación lineal, la regresión lineal múltiple, ecuaciones estructurales, y se desarrollaron cuatro submodelos dinámicos predictivos: TIDM2, población urbana, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población de 45-49 años de edad. Se desarrolló también un modelo holístico. Resultados. El modelo estructural explica 27,2% del total de la varianza de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2. El porcentaje de viviendas habitadas que cuentan con televisión pesan 4,46 unidades no estándar sobre la diabetes, el de población urbana, 2,84 y el de población de 45-49 años, 156,69. Los escenarios estimados de la TIDM2 por 100 000 habitantes, para los años 2015, 2020, 2025 y 2030 fueron 1 052,4, 1 413,7, 1 850,1 y 2 351,1 respectivamente. Conclusión. El escenario de la TIDM2 muestra un crecimiento exponencial del año 2000 al 2030. Los factores de riesgo según el peso que representan para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad fueron: población de 45-49 años, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población urbana.

Objective. Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods. A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. Results. The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. Conclusion. The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.

Objetivo. Desenvolver um modelo dinâmico preditivo para estimar cenários futuros da taxa de incidência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Métodos. Foi realizado um estudo ecológico retrospectivo no período de 2013 a 2015 na cidade de San Luis Potosí, México. Foram analisados dados oficiais secundários dos 58 municípios que fazem parte do Estado de San Luis Potosí. Foi feita a análise de correlação linear, regressão linear múltipla e equações estruturais e construídos quatro submodelos dinâmicos preditivos: diabetes mellitus tipo 2, população urbana, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população com idade de 45–49 anos. Foi também desenvolvido um modelo holístico. Resultados. O modelo estrutural explica 27,2% do total da variança da diabetes mellitus tipo 2. A porcentagem de domicílios permanentes com televisão tem o peso de 4,46 unidades não padronizadas na diabetes, 2,84 na população urbana e 156,69 na população de 45–49 anos. Os cenários estimados da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 por 100.000 habitantes para 2015, 2020, 2025 e 2030 foram de 1.052,4, 1.413,7, 1.850,1 e 2.351,1 respectivamente. Conclusão. O cenário da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 mostra um crescimento exponencial de 2000 a 2030. Os fatores de risco segundo o peso representado na ocorrência da doença foram população com 45–49 anos, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população urbana.

Escenario futuro de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado con un modelo de simulación dinámico predictivo / Future type 2 diabetes mellitus scenario estimated with a predictive dynamic simulation model / Cenário futuro da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 estimado com um modelo preditivo de simulação dinâmica

RESUMEN Objetivo Desarrollar un modelo dinámico predictivo para estimar escenarios futuros de la tasa de incidencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 (TIDM2). Métodos Se realizó un estudio ecológico retrospectivo durante el periodo 2013-2015 en la ciudad de San Luis Potosí, México. Se analizaron datos oficiales secundarios de los 58 municipios que integran el estado de San Luis Potosí. Se aplicó la correlación lineal, la regresión lineal múltiple, ecuaciones estructurales, y se desarrollaron cuatro submodelos dinámicos predictivos: TIDM2, población urbana, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población de 45-49 años de edad. Se desarrolló también un modelo holístico. Resultados El modelo estructural explica 27,2% del total de la varianza de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2. El porcentaje de viviendas habitadas que cuentan con televisión pesan 4,46 unidades no estándar sobre la diabetes, el de población urbana, 2,84 y el de población de 45-49 años, 156,69. Los escenarios estimados de la TIDM2 por 100 000 habitantes, para los años 2015, 2020, 2025 y 2030 fueron 1 052,4, 1 413,7, 1 850,1 y 2 351,1 respectivamente. Conclusión El escenario de la TIDM2 muestra un crecimiento exponencial del año 2000 al 2030. Los factores de riesgo según el peso que representan para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad fueron: población de 45-49 años, viviendas particulares habitadas que cuentan con televisión y población urbana.

ABSTRACT Objective Develop a predictive dynamic model to estimate future scenarios for the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Methods A retrospective ecological study was conducted in 2013-2015 in the city of San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Secondary official data from the 58 municipalities making up the state of San Luis Potosí were analyzed. Linear correlation, multiple linear regression, and structural equations were carried out, and four predictive dynamic submodels were developed: T2DM, urban population, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and population aged 45-49 years. A holistic model was also developed. Results The structural model explains 27.2% of total variance in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Percentage of inhabited dwellings that have television weighs 4.46 non-standard units on diabetes; that of urban population, 2.84; and that of population aged 45-49 years, 156.69. Estimated scenarios for T2DM per 100 000 population for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, and 2030 were 1,052.4, 1,413.7, 1,850.1, and 2,351.1 respectively. Conclusion The T2DM scenario shows exponential growth from 2000 to 2030. Risk factors according to the weight they represent in occurrence of the disease were: population aged 45-49 years, inhabited private dwellings that have television, and urban population.

RESUMO Objetivo Desenvolver um modelo dinâmico preditivo para estimar cenários futuros da taxa de incidência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Métodos Foi realizado um estudo ecológico retrospectivo no período de 2013 a 2015 na cidade de San Luis Potosí, México. Foram analisados dados oficiais secundários dos 58 municípios que fazem parte do Estado de San Luis Potosí. Foi feita a análise de correlação linear, regressão linear múltipla e equações estruturais e construídos quatro submodelos dinâmicos preditivos: diabetes mellitus tipo 2, população urbana, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população com idade de 45-49 anos. Foi também desenvolvido um modelo holístico. Resultados O modelo estrutural explica 27,2% do total da variança da diabetes mellitus tipo 2. A porcentagem de domicílios permanentes com televisão tem o peso de 4,46 unidades não padronizadas na diabetes, 2,84 na população urbana e 156,69 na população de 45-49 anos. Os cenários estimados da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 por 100.000 habitantes para 2015, 2020, 2025 e 2030 foram de 1.052,4, 1.413,7, 1.850,1 e 2.351,1 respectivamente. Conclusão O cenário da diabetes mellitus tipo 2 mostra um crescimento exponencial de 2000 a 2030. Os fatores de risco segundo o peso representado na ocorrência da doença foram população com 45-49 anos, domicílios particulares permanentes com televisão e população urbana.