Outcome of seizures in the general population after 25†years: a prospective follow-up, observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated long-term (to 25 years) seizure prognosis and survival in people with newly diagnosed epilepsy in the community. We explored whether prognosis is different in those with epilepsy (>2 unprovoked seizures) and those with a single seizure at presentation. METHODS: This is a prospective observational cohort study of people with newly diagnosed seizures. We investigated seizure outcome and survival in people presenting with a single seizure and in those presenting with >2 seizures (epilepsy). RESULTS: 695 people (median follow-up 23.6 years) had unprovoked epileptic seizures. For seizure analysis we excluded 38 people with missing data leaving 657 (309 male, and 249 aged <18 years). Seizures recurred in 67%. The 354 people with epilepsy were only slightly more likely to have further seizure recurrence than the 302 people with a single seizure at presentation (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.59). In 327 people with complete follow-up, 268 (82%, 95% CI 77% to 86%) were in terminal remission; (80%, (95% CI 73% to 85%) in those with epilepsy at presentation). Premature mortality was increased in people with epilepsy (standardised mortality ratio 1.67; 95% CI 1.40 to 1.99) and those with a single seizure at presentation (standardised mortality ratio 2.65; 95% CI 2.23 to 3.15). It is also high in those with early remission. CONCLUSIONS: People with epilepsy and with single seizures at presentation in the community generally have good prognosis for seizure control with prolonged follow-up. The risk of premature mortality is significantly increased in both groups.

The contribution of British general practice to our knowledge of epilepsy and its effects on people.

INTRODUCTION: British general practice is a good base for epidemiological research which is evidenced by the study of epilepsy. SOURCES OF DATA: A comprehensive search of PubMed using various keywords for articles on epilepsy research performed in British general practice. AREAS OF AGREEMENT: Studies in the setting of general practice have contributed significantly to knowledge in the field of epilepsy, especially in relation to epidemiology, studies of prognosis and treatment patterns and psychosocial aspects. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: The extent to which epilepsy can be managed in general practice. GROWING POINTS: The importance of primary care research and the importance of collaborative studies between general practice, hospital and university departments. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: The effects of interventions at general practice level on seizure control, morbidity and mortality.

Longitudinal cohort studies of the prognosis of epilepsy: contribution of the National General Practice Study of Epilepsy and other studies.

Longitudinal cohort studies of prognosis in epilepsy have been carried out since the late 1970s and these have transformed our understanding of prognosis in epilepsy. This paper reviews the contribution of such studies and focuses particularly on the National General Practice Study of Epilepsy, a prospective population-based cohort study of 1195 patients that was initiated in 1983. The National General Practice Study of Epilepsy and other studies have shown that: (i) epilepsy has an often good prognosis with 65-85% of cases eventually entering long-term remission, and an even higher proportion of cases entering a short-term remission; (ii) the likelihood of long-term remission of seizures is much better in newly diagnosed cases than in patients with chronic epilepsy; (iii) the early response to treatment is a good guide to longer term prognosis (although not inevitably so, as in a minority of cases seizure remission can develop after prolonged activity); (iv) the longer is the remission (and follow-up), the less likely is subsequent recurrence; (v) the longer an epilepsy is active, the poorer is the longer term outlook; (vi) that delaying treatment, even for many years, does not worsen long-term prognosis; (vii) the 'continuous' and 'burst' patterns are more common than the 'intermittent' seizure pattern; (viii) epilepsy has a mortality that is highest in the early years after diagnosis, and in the early years is largely due to the underlying cause, however, higher mortality rates than expected are observed throughout the course of an epilepsy; (ix) the prognosis of febrile seizures is generally good, with ~6-7% developing later epilepsy; and (x) clinical factors associated with outcome have been well studied, and those consistently found to predict a worse outcome include: the presence of neurodeficit, high frequency of seizures before therapy (seizure density), poor response to initial therapy, some epilepsy syndromes.