Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP-18.

This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non-attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach - multidimensional scaling - to visualize potential clustering (co-occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two-dimensional space show the clustering and co-occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non-attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non-attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational-theoretical model of the TRAP-18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre-offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.

The Relationships Between Victim Age, Gender, and Relationship Polymorphism and Sexual Recidivism.

Victim choice polymorphism refers to victim inconsistency in a series of offenses by the same perpetrator, such as in the domains of victim age, victim gender, and victim-offender relationship. Past studies have found that victim age polymorphic offenders have higher rates of sexual recidivism than offenders against adults only and offenders against children only. Few studies, however, have examined gender and relationship polymorphism, or accounted for the impact of the number of past victims. The present study analyzed the relationship between polymorphism and sexual recidivism, while controlling for the number of victims. The sample consisted of 751 male adult sexual offenders followed for an average of 10 years, 311 of whom were polymorphic (41% of the total sample). The main finding suggested that there was an association between sexual recidivism and age and relationship polymorphism; however, these associations were no longer significant after controlling for the number of victims.

Age Diversity Among Victims of Hebephilic Sexual Offenders.

Hebephilia refers to sexual interest in pubescent children who are beginning to show early signs of sexual development but are sexually immature. The present study examined the relationship between hebephilia and victim age choice in a sample of 2,238 adult male sexual offenders. On average, offenders were 39 years old at the time of their assessments, and approximately half (48%) were referred by probation or parole offices. Assessment data included self-report, sexual arousal measured by volumetric phallometry, and victims' ages. Results suggested that, similar to pedophilia, hebephilia had a medium sized association with a greater number of victims under age 11 and a small sized association with a greater number of victims ages 11 to 14. Unlike pedophilia, a small positive association was consistently found between hebephilia and a greater number of victims ages 15 or 16. Furthermore, a small positive association was observed between victim age polymorphism and hebephilia and pedophilia. The present results suggested that hebephilia was associated with a greater number of victims age 14 or younger and had similar victim age correlates to pedophiles.

Multiple indicators of sexual interest in prepubescent or pubescent children as predictors of sexual recidivism.

OBJECTIVE: Sexual interest in children is a well-known risk factor for sexual reoffending (recidivism). The present study examined the relationship between sexual interest in prepubescent children (pedophilia) or pubescent children (hebephilia) and sexual recidivism. It extended previous work by using multiple indicators of sexual interest, using a more sensitive phallometric procedure that measures change in penile blood volume, and examining both hebephilia alongside pedophilia, as well as noncontact sexual recidivism. METHOD: Six hundred fifty-six men who had committed a sexual offense underwent a comprehensive sexological assessment that included multiple sexual interest measures: volumetric phallometry, self-report, and sexual behavior. Criminal record data were acquired to examine recidivism. Offenders were followed for an average of 10 years of opportunity. RESULTS: Indicators of hebephilia and pedophilia were significantly associated with noncontact sexual recidivism, but inconsistently associated with contact recidivism. The relationship with phallometrically assessed pedophilia and contact sexual recidivism was significant after controlling for offender age statistically. Phallometrically assessed sexual arousal to children did not add to risk appraised by an actuarial measure. CONCLUSION: Both hebephilia and pedophilia were predictive of noncontact sexual recidivism. The results for contact sexual recidivism are discussed, including a potential confound in previous work on the assessment of sexual interest in children. (PsycINFO Database Record

Evidence of Construct Validity in the Assessment of Hebephilia.

Hebephilia refers to a persistent intense sexual interest in pubescent children. Although not as widely studied as pedophilia, studies of hebephilia have indicated convergence in self-report and sexual arousal. The present study expanded on previous work by examining convergent and divergent validity across indicators of hebephilia that included self-report, sexual behavior, and sexual arousal in a sample of 2238 men who had sexually offended. We included men who denied such interest and specifically examined the overlap between hebephilia and pedophilia and examined pedohebephilia (i.e., sexual interests in both prepubescent and pubescent children). Results indicated that there was considerable convergence across indicators of hebephilia. The results suggested poor divergent validity between hebephilia and pedophilia, as there was substantial overlap between the two constructs across analyses. Finally, a distinct pattern of sexual arousal was found in offenders with pedohebephilia. The results of the present study were discussed with a focus on implications for the assessment of sexual interest in children and the conceptualization of pedohebephilia.

Individual Community-Based Treatment of Offenders With Mental Illness: Relationship to Recidivism.

This study explores the effectiveness of psychological intervention at reducing the risk of recidivism among a group of high-risk, high-need offenders housed in a Community Correctional Centre (CCC) operated by the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC). File reviews on 136 male federal offenders living in a CCC in a large metropolitan area were included in the present investigation. Previous research on this sample by our team indicated that the majority of this sample met diagnostic criteria for a variety of psychiatric conditions. Data on the number of individual counseling sessions received and progress in treatment were collected from official file information for the purpose of the present investigation. After accounting for actuarially assessed risk, moderate doses of treatment were found to be associated with 7.7 times less likelihood of recidivism, and high doses of treatment were found to be associated with 11.6 times less likelihood of recidivism, when compared with offenders who received no treatment or were only assessed for treatment. These results are discussed in the context of correctional models of offender risk assessment and rehabilitation. It is notable that a very simple measure of global mental health treatment attendance, with no consideration of such factors as responsiveness, added considerable incremental predictive validity to the results after having statistically accounted for actuarially assessed risk of recidivism.

Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders.

Summary cortisol reactivity indicators: Interrelations and meaning.

Research on the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis has involved a proliferation of cortisol indices. We surveyed recently published HPA-related articles and identified 15 such indices. We sought to clarify their biometric properties, specifically, how they interrelate and what they mean, because such information is rarely offered in the articles themselves. In the present article, the primary samples consist of community mothers and their infants (N = 297), who participated in two challenges, the Toy Frustration Paradigm and the Strange Situation Procedure. We sought to cross-validate findings from each of these samples against the other, and also against a clinically depressed sample (N = 48) and a sample of healthy older adults (N = 51) who participated in the Trier Social Stress Test. Cortisol was collected from all participants once before and twice after the challenges. These heterogenous samples were chosen to obtain the greatest possible range in cortisol levels and stress response regulation. Using these data, we computed the 15 summary cortisol indices identified in our literature survey. We assessed inter-relations amongst indices and determined their underlying dimensions via principal component analysis (PCA). The PCAs consistently extracted two components, accounting for 79%-93% of the variance. These components represent "total cortisol production" and "change in cortisol levels." The components were highly congruent across challenge, time, and sample. High variable loadings and explained factor variance suggest that all indices represent their underlying dimensions very well. Thus the abundance of summary cortisol indices currently represented in the literature appears superfluous.

An examination of distress intolerance in undergraduate students high in symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder.

People with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) engage in maladaptive coping strategies to reduce or avoid distress. Evidence suggests that uncertainty and negative emotions are triggers for distress in people with GAD; however, there may also be other triggers. Recent conceptualizations have highlighted six types of experiences that people report having difficulty withstanding: uncertainty, negative emotions, ambiguity, frustration, physical discomfort, and the perceived consequences of anxious arousal. The present study examined the extent to which individuals high in symptoms of GAD are intolerant of these distress triggers, compared to individuals high in depressive symptoms, and individuals who are low in GAD and depressive symptoms. Undergraduate students (N = 217) completed self-report measures of GAD symptoms, depressive symptoms, and distress intolerance. Individuals high in GAD symptoms reported greater intolerance of all of the distress triggers compared to people low in symptoms of GAD and depression. Individuals high in GAD symptoms reported greater intolerance of physical discomfort compared to those high in depressive symptoms. Furthermore, intolerance of physical discomfort was the best unique correlate of GAD status, suggesting that it may be specific to GAD (versus depression). These findings support continued investigation of the transdiagnosticity and specificity of distress intolerance.

An examination of the relationship between childhood emotional abuse and borderline personality disorder features: the role of difficulties with emotion regulation.

Childhood abuse has been consistently linked with borderline personality disorder (BPD) and recent studies suggest that some forms of childhood abuse might be uniquely related to both BPD and BPD features. In addition, difficulties with emotion regulation have been found to be associated with childhood abuse, BPD, as well as BPD features. The present study examined (1) whether frequency of childhood emotional abuse is uniquely associated with BPD feature severity when controlling for other forms of childhood abuse and (2) whether difficulties with emotion regulation accounts for the relationship between childhood emotional abuse and BPD feature severity. A sample of undergraduates (n=243) completed the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire - Short Form, Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale, and Borderline Symptom List-23. Multiple regression analyses and Structural Equation Modeling were conducted. Results indicated that frequency of childhood emotional abuse (and not sexual or physical abuse) was uniquely associated with BPD feature severity. In addition, while there was no direct path between childhood emotional abuse, childhood physical abuse, or childhood sexual abuse and BPD features, there was an indirect relationship between childhood emotional abuse and BPD features through difficulties with emotion regulation. These findings suggest that, of the different forms of childhood abuse, emotional abuse specifically, may have a developmental role in BPD pathology. Prevention and treatment of BPD pathology might benefit from the provision of emotion regulation strategies.

Predictors of immigrant children's mental health in Canada: selection, settlement contingencies, culture, or all of the above?

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: A previous publication from the New Canadian Children and Youth Study, a national study of immigrant children and youth in Canada, showed a gradient of levels of emotional distress with children from Hong Kong (HK) at the most severe end, Filipino children at the least severe, and children from the People's Republic of China (PRC) in between. Based on the premise that country of origin can be regarded as an index for differing immigration trajectories, the current study examines the extent to which arrival characteristics, resettlement contingencies and cultural factors account for country of origin variations in immigrant children's mental health. Arrival characteristics included child's age at arrival, parental education, parental fluency in English or French, and assistance from family at arrival. Resettlement contingencies included parental mental health, intra-familial conflict, settlement stress, separations from parents and child's age when mother started working outside the home. Cultural factors included one-child family composition and parenting styles. METHODS: A national survey of 2,031 families with at least one child between the ages of 4 and 6 or 11 and 13 from HK, the PRC and the Philippines was conducted with the Person Most Knowledgeable (PMK) in snowball-generated samples in 6 different cities across Canada. Predictors of the dependent variable, emotional problems (EP), were examined in a hierarchical block regression analysis. EP was regressed on ethnic and country of origin group in model 1; arrival characteristics were added in model 2; resettlement contingencies in model 3 and cultural factors in model 4. RESULTS: The final set of predictor variables accounted for 19.3 % of the variance in EP scores among the younger cohort and 23.2 % in the older. Parental human and social capital variables accounted for only a small amount of the overall variance in EP, but there were statistically significant inverse relationships between EP and PMK fluency in English or French. Settlement contingencies accounted for a significant increase in the explanatory power of the regression equation, net of the effects of country of origin and selection characteristics. This block of variables also accounted for the Filipino mental health advantage. Levels of parent's depression and somatization, harsh parenting, intrafamilial conflict, and resettlement stress each varied directly with levels of children's EP. Cultural variables made a significant contribution to explaining the variance in EP scores. Harsh parenting was significantly associated with increased levels of EP in both age groups, and supportive parenting was a mental health protective factor for younger children. CONCLUSIONS: Immigrant family human and social capital, according to which immigrants are selected for admission to Canada, play a relatively small role in determining children's mental health. These effects are overshadowed by resettlement contingencies and cultural influences. Concentrating on trying to find a formula to select the "right" immigrants while neglecting settlement and culture is likely to pay limited dividends for ensuring the mental health of children.

Applying crime scene analysis to the prediction of sexual recidivism in stranger rapes.

The current study sought to improve the predictive accuracy of sexual recidivism using the Static-99 risk assessment tool by the addition of detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was carried out using a Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach, the gold-standard in CSA. BTA was conducted on a sample of 167 stranger rape cases using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and sexual exploitation, consistent with previous research in sexual offending CSA. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the criminality theme was significantly predictive of sexual recidivism and also significantly correlated with previous sexual offense history. Further, the criminality theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism.

Comparing recidivism rates of treatment responders/nonresponders in a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed community-based sex offender treatment in the United kingdom.

Analysis of psychometric data from a sample of 413 child molesters who had completed a U.K. probation-based sex offender treatment program was carried out to assess (a) the effectiveness of therapy in the short term and (b) the longer term implications of treatment in relation to sexual recidivism. It was found that 12% (51 offenders) of the sample had recidivated within 2 to 4 years. Of these recidivists, 86% (44 offenders) had been reconvicted for a sexually related offense. One hundred thirty-five offenders (33%) demonstrated a treated profile (i.e., demonstrated no offense-specific problems and few, or no, socioaffective problems at the posttreatment stage). This group was compared with a sample of offenders deemed as not responding to treatment, matched by their levels of pretreatment risk/need. It was found that a significantly smaller proportion (n = 12, 9%) of treatment responders had recidivated, compared to the treatment nonresponders (n = 20, 15%), indicating a 40% reduction in recidivism in those who had responded to treatment (effect size = .18). Matching length of treatment to the offenders' level of pretreatment risk/need (i.e., higher risk/treatment-need offenders typically undertook longer treatment) reduced the rate of recidivism among this group to the level of recidivism observed among the lower risk/need offenders.

Examining the influence of denial, motivation, and risk on sexual recidivism.

This study examined the relationship between denial, motivation, static risk (Risk Matrix 2000), and sexual recidivism. Denial was measured in three ways: A Denial Index (resulting from the combination of several measures of different aspects of denial), Absolute Denial, and Denial of Risk. Motivation for treatment was also examined. Logistic regression analyses in a sample of 180 sex offenders using a fixed 10-year follow-up found that risk moderated the relationships between the Denial Index, Absolute Denial, and sexual recidivism. In particular, among high-risk offenders, denial predicted decreased sexual recidivism. An opposite pattern was observed for the low-risk offenders who were in denial, although these differences were not significant. In terms of Denial of Risk, those who were denying they presented a future risk for offending (i.e., higher on Denial of Risk) were less likely to reoffend than those who reported seeing themselves as presenting a high risk. Motivation for treatment was positively correlated with recidivism, but the effect disappeared once static risk was controlled.

The impact of outcome knowledge, role, and quality of information on the perceived legitimacy of lethal force decisions in counter-terrorism operations.

According to the phenomenon of hindsight bias, once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to have biased estimates of the probability that the event would have occurred. In this study, we investigated whether hindsight bias affected judgements about the legitimacy of lethal force decisions in police shooting incidents for counter-terrorism operations. We also assessed to what extent this hindsight bias was mediated by factors such as role and information quality. Four hundred and eighty participants completed a short questionnaire that manipulated role (as senior police officer, Independent Police Complaints Commissioner, or family member, plus a "no role" control group), information quality (detailed/good or vague/ambiguous), and outcome knowledge (knowledge of outcome/hindsight versus no knowledge of outcome/foresight) in a 4 x 2 x 2 design. Results indicated that outcome knowledge affected the perception of threat and decision quality but not the blameworthiness of the senior police officer. Quality of information had a significant effect on all three dependent variables and role had a significant impact on judgements as to whether the decision to shoot was correct and also the perceived threat, though not on perceived blameworthiness. These findings indicate that people who have to judge the liability of lethal force decisions are not able to ignore outcome information, and are strongly influenced by the quality of information and by the role in which they are receiving the information.

What works in offender profiling? A comparison of typological, thematic, and multivariate models.

Utilizing a sample of 85 stranger rapists, three models (Hazelwood's (1987) Power and Anger FBI model, the Behavioral Thematic evaluation of Canter, Bennell, Alison, and Reddy (2003), and the Massachusetts Treatment Center: Rape classification system revision 3 (MTC:R3, Knight & Prentky, 1990)) were contrasted with a multivariate regression approach to assess their ability to predict an offender's previous convictions from crime scene information. In respect of the three aforementioned models, logistic regression and AUC analysis indicated that the Power and Anger FBI model was the most effective, followed by the MTC:R3, and then the Behavioral Thematic evaluation. However, predictive analyses based on a multivariate approach using a mixture of crime scene behaviors, as opposed to the grouping of behaviors into themes or types as in the three models, far exceeded the predictive ability of the three models under AUC analysis. The results suggest that emphasis should be placed on further exploration of the predictive validity of each of the individual behaviors that comprise existing thematic, typological, and multivariate classification systems, especially those that are subject to inter-situational variation.

When is profiling possible? Offense planning and aggression as moderators in predicting offender age from victim age in stranger rape.

Debate continues with regard to the possibility of inferring an offender's characteristic features from crime scene details (the process of so-called "offender profiling"). We argue that psychology generally has benefited from appreciating context in predicting behavior. In the same way, profiling would benefit from an appreciation of context in predicting characteristics. This "reverse" process is contingent on various "if...then" relationships. As one example, this paper demonstrates how profiling offender age from victim age is contingent on (i) the level of planning and (ii) the level of aggression displayed during the offense. Eighty-five stranger rape case records formed the data set. Moderated regression analysis revealed that victim age is a significant predictor of offender age only in cases where the offender has (i) shown evidence of planning the attack and/or (ii) acts in a gratuitously aggressive manner. The theoretical bases for these findings may lie in the extent to which offenders disparately plan and target victims and how extreme aggressiveness in stranger rapes may relate to a near-peer proxy for an offender's anger. The implications of the results for the processes and methods involved in offender profiling suggest that certain crime scene factors can have differential moderating effects on predictive outcomes.