Predictors of mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients and risk score formulation for prioritizing tertiary care-An experience from South India.

BACKGROUND: We retrospectively data-mined the case records of Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 patients hospitalized to a tertiary care centre to derive mortality predictors and formulate a risk score, for prioritizing admission. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data on clinical manifestations, comorbidities, vital signs, and basic lab investigations collected as part of routine medical management at admission to a COVID-19 tertiary care centre in Chengalpattu, South India between May and November 2020 were retrospectively analysed to ascertain predictors of mortality in the univariate analysis using their relative difference in distribution among 'survivors' and 'non-survivors'. The regression coefficients of those factors remaining significant in the multivariable logistic regression were utilised for risk score formulation and validated in 1000 bootstrap datasets. Among 746 COVID-19 patients hospitalised [487 "survivors" and 259 "non-survivors" (deaths)], there was a slight male predilection [62.5%, (466/746)], with a higher mortality rate observed among 40-70 years age group [59.1%, (441/746)] and highest among diabetic patients with elevated urea levels [65.4% (68/104)]. The adjusted odds ratios of factors [OR (95% CI)] significant in the multivariable logistic regression were SaO2<95%; 2.96 (1.71-5.18), Urea ≥50 mg/dl: 4.51 (2.59-7.97), Neutrophil-lymphocytic ratio (NLR) >3; 3.01 (1.61-5.83), Age ≥50 years;2.52 (1.45-4.43), Pulse Rate ≥100/min: 2.02 (1.19-3.47) and coexisting Diabetes Mellitus; 1.73 (1.02-2.95) with hypertension and gender not retaining their significance. The individual risk scores for SaO2<95-11, Urea ≥50 mg/dl-15, NLR >3-11, Age ≥50 years-9, Pulse Rate ≥100/min-7 and coexisting diabetes mellitus-6, acronymed collectively as 'OUR-ARDs score' showed that the sum of scores ≥ 25 predicted mortality with a sensitivity-90%, specificity-64% and AUC of 0.85. CONCLUSIONS: The 'OUR ARDs' risk score, derived from easily assessable factors predicting mortality, offered a tangible solution for prioritizing admission to COVID-19 tertiary care centre, that enhanced patient care but without unduly straining the health system.

Predictors of unfavorable responses to therapy in rifampicin-sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis using an integrated approach of radiological presentation and sputum mycobacterial burden.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the exalted status of sputum mycobacterial load for gauging pulmonary tuberculosis treatment and progress, Chest X-rays supplement valuable information for taking instantaneous therapeutic decisions, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though literature on individual parameters is overwhelming, few studies have explored the interaction between radiographic parameters denoting severity with mycobacterial burden signifying infectivity. By using a sophisticated approach of integrating Chest X-ray parameters with sputum mycobacterial characteristics, evaluated at all the three crucial time points of TB treatment namely pre-treatment, end of intensive phase and completion of treatment, utilizing the interactive Cox Proportional Hazards model, we aimed to precisely deduce predictors of unfavorable response to TB treatment. MATERIALS AND METHOD: We extracted de-identified data from well characterized clinical trial cohorts that recruited rifampicin-sensitive Pulmonary TB patients without any comorbidities, taking their first spell of anti-tuberculosis therapy under supervision and meticulous follow up for 24 months post treatment completion, to accurately predict TB outcomes. Radiographic data independently obtained, interpreted by two experienced pulmonologists was collated with demographic details and, sputum smear and culture grades of participants by an independent statistician and analyzed using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, to not only adjust for confounding factors including treatment effect, but also explore the interaction between radiological and bacteriological parameters for better therapeutic application. RESULTS: Of 667 TB patients with data available, cavitation, extent of involvement, lower zone involvement, smear and culture grade at baseline were significant parameters predisposing to an unfavorable TB treatment outcome in the univariate analysis. Reduction in radiological lesions in Chest X-ray by at least 50% at 2 months and 75% at the end of treatment helped in averting unfavorable responses. Smear and Culture conversion at the end of 2 months was highly significant as a predictor (p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the adjusted hazards ratios (HR) for an unfavorable response to TB therapy for extent of involvement, baseline cavitation and persistence (post treatment) were 1.21 (95% CI: 1.01-1.44), 1.73 (95% CI: 1.05-2.84) and 2.68 (95% CI: 1.4-5.12) respectively. A 3+ smear had an HR of 1.94 (95% CI: 0.81-4.64). Further probing into the interaction, among patients with 3+ and 2+ smears, HRs for cavitation were 3.26 (95% CI: 1.33-8.00) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.80-4.60) while for >2 zones, were 3.05 (95% CI: 1.12-8.23) and 1.92 (95% CI: 0.72-5.08) respectively. Patients without cavitation, zonal involvement <2, and a smear grade less than 2+ had a better prognosis and constituted minimal disease. CONCLUSION: Baseline Cavitation, Opacities occupying >2 zones and 3+ smear grade individually and independently forecasted a poorer TB outcome. The interaction model revealed that Zonal involvement confined to 2 zones, without a cavity and smear grade up to 2+, constituting "minimal disease", had a better prognosis. Radiological clearance >50% along with smear conversion at the end of intensive phase of treatment, observed to be a reasonable alternative to culture conversion in predicting a successful outcome. These parameters may potentially take up key positions as stratification factors for future trials contemplating on shorter TB regimens.

Pulmonary Mycobacterium kyorinense disease: A case report and review of literature.

We report here the first case of pulmonary infection due to Mycobacterium kyorinense in a 55-year-old hypertensive woman treated for pulmonary tuberculosis earlier on two occasions. She presented with productive cough, intermittent episode of left-sided chest pain, loss of appetite, low-grade fever, and breathlessness. Sputum cultures revealed non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM). She remained persistently symptomatic with sputum cultures positive for acid-fast bacilli even after 6 months of treatment. Hence, a 16SrRNA gene amplification and sequencing were done that revealed M. kyorinense. Based on the guidelines of the American Thoracic Society, she was started on weight-based dosing of clarithromycin, levofloxacin, ethambutol, isoniazid and injection amikacin daily. The patient improved symptomatically and became culture-negative after 3 months of therapy with the above regimen and continued to be culture negative for 12 months of treatment. She continues to remain symptom-free without evidence of any clinical or bacteriological relapse.

Daily vs Intermittent Antituberculosis Therapy for Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Patients With HIV: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The benefit of daily over thrice-weekly antituberculosis therapy among HIV-positive patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) who are receiving antiretroviral therapy remains unproven. Objective: To compare the efficacy and safety of daily, part-daily, and intermittent antituberculosis therapy regimens in the treatment of HIV-associated pulmonary TB. Design, Setting, and Participants: This open-label, randomized clinical trial was conducted by the National Institute for Research in Tuberculosis, south India. Adults infected with HIV with newly diagnosed, culture-positive, pulmonary TB were enrolled between September 14, 2009, and January 18, 2016. Interventions: Patients were randomized to daily, part-daily, and intermittent antituberculosis therapy regimens, stratified by baseline CD4 lymphocyte count and sputum smear grade. Antiretroviral therapy was initiated as per national guidelines. Clinical and sputum microbiological examinations of patients were performed monthly until 18 months after randomization. Adverse events were recorded using standard criteria. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was favorable response, defined as treatment completion with all available sputum cultures negative for Mycobacterium tuberculosis during the last 2 months of treatment. Unfavorable responses included treatment failures, dropouts, deaths, and toxic effects among regimens. Results: Of 331 patients (251 [76%] male; mean [SD] age, 39 [9] years; mean [SD] HIV viral load, 4.9 [1.2] log10 copies/mL; and median [interquartile range] CD4 lymphocyte count, 138 [69-248] cells/µL), favorable responses were experienced by 91% (89 of 98), 80% (77 of 96), and 77% (75 of 98) in the daily, part-daily, and intermittent regimens, respectively. With the difference in outcome between daily and intermittent regimens crossing the O'Brien-Fleming group sequential boundaries and acquired rifampicin resistance emergence (n = 4) confined to the intermittent group, the data safety monitoring committee halted the study. A total of 18 patients died and 18 patients dropped out during the treatment period in the 3 regimens. Six, 4, and 6 patients in the daily, part-daily, and intermittent regimens, respectively, had TB recurrence. Conclusions and Relevance: Among HIV-positive patients with pulmonary TB receiving antiretroviral therapy, a daily anti-TB regimen proved superior to a thrice-weekly regimen in terms of efficacy and emergence of rifampicin resistance. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00933790.

Current trends and intricacies in the management of HIV-associated pulmonary tuberculosis.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic has undoubtedly increased the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) globally, posing a formidable global health challenge affecting 1.2 million cases. Pulmonary TB assumes utmost significance in the programmatic perspective as it is readily transmissible as well as easily diagnosable. HIV complicates every aspect of pulmonary tuberculosis from diagnosis to treatment, demanding a different approach to effectively tackle both the diseases. In order to control these converging epidemics, it is important to diagnose early, initiate appropriate therapy for both infections, prevent transmission and administer preventive therapy. Liquid culture methods and nucleic acid amplification tests for TB confirmation have replaced conventional solid media, enabling quicker and simultaneous detection of mycobacterium and its drug sensitivity profile Unique problems posed by the syndemic include Acquired rifampicin resistance, drug-drug interactions, malabsorption of drugs and immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome or paradoxical reaction that complicate dual and concomitant therapy. While the antiretroviral therapy armamentarium is constantly reinforced by discovery of newer and safer drugs every year, only a few drugs for anti tuberculosis treatment have successfully emerged. These include bedaquiline, delamanid and pretomanid which have entered phase III B trials and are also available through conditional access national programmes. The current guidelines by WHO to start Antiretroviral therapy irrespective of CD4+ cell count based on benefits cited by recent trials could go a long way in preventing various complications caused by the deadly duo. This review provides a consolidated gist of the advancements, concepts and updates that have emerged in the management of HIV-associated pulmonary TB for maximizing efficacy, offering latest solutions for tackling drug-drug interactions and remedial measures for immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome.

Tuberculosis-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV: from pathogenesis to prediction.

Tuberculosis-immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (TB-IRIS) is an exaggerated, dysregulated immune response against dead or viable antigens of Mycobacterium tuberculosis that frequently occurs after initiation of antiretroviral therapy despite an effective suppression of HIV viremia. Scientific advances in IRIS pathogenesis have led researchers and clinicians to postulate risk factors that could possibly predict this syndrome, in an attempt to reduce the incidence and the severity of IRIS, with appropriate anti-inflammatory therapy. This review is a summary of the available literature on pathogenic mechanisms involved from the macro to the micro level, the clinical spectrum, available predictors and the scope of these biomarkers to function as specific therapeutic targets, that could effectively modulate or ameliorate this syndrome in future.

Efficacy of a six-month versus a 36-month regimen for prevention of tuberculosis in HIV-infected persons in India: a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of preventive therapy for tuberculosis (TB) among HIV-infected persons in TB-endemic countries is unknown. METHODS: An open-label randomized clinical trial was performed and analyzed for equivalence. Seven hundred and twelve HIV-infected, ART-naïve patients without active TB were randomized to receive either ethambutol 800 mg and isoniazid 300 mg daily for six-months (6EH) or isoniazid 300 mg daily for 36-months (36H). Drugs were dispensed fortnightly and adherence checked by home visits. Patients had chest radiograph, sputum smear and culture performed every six months, in addition to investigations if they developed symptoms. The primary endpoint was incident TB while secondary endpoints were all-cause mortality and adverse events. Survival analysis was performed on the modified intent to treat population (m-ITT) and rates compared. FINDINGS: Tuberculosis developed in 22 (6.4%) of 344 subjects in the 6EH arm and 13 (3.8%) of 339 subjects in the 36H arm with incidence rates of 2.4/100 py (95%CI- 1.4-3.5) and 1.6/100 py (95% CI-0.8-3.0) with an adjusted rate ratio (aIRR) of 1.6 (0.8-3.2). Among TST-positive subjects, the aIRR of 6EH was 1.7 (0.6-4.3) compared to 36H, p = 0.8. All-cause mortality and toxicity were similar in the two arms. Among 15 patients with confirmed TB, 4 isolates were resistant to isoniazid and 2 were multidrug-resistant. INTERPRETATION: Both regimens were similarly effective in preventing TB, when compared to historical incidence rates. However, there was a trend to lower TB incidence with 36H. There was no increase in isoniazid resistance compared to the expected rate in HIV-infected patients. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00351702.

Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in HIV-infected patients with and without prior tuberculosis.

We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) to identify risk factors and common manifestations of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) and to validate the Robertson criteria for IRIS prediction. HIV-infected patients at the Tuberculosis Research Centre clinics, Chennai and Madurai, India, initiating ART between July 2004 and June 2005 were prospectively studied. Of 97 patients (62% men, median age 32 years, median CD4 count 63 cells/µL) included, 34 developed IRIS. IRIS was more common in patients with a prior history of tuberculosis (74% versus 52%, P = 0.04), median time to development was 46 days and the sensitivity and specificity of the Robertson criteria to predict IRIS were 91% and 22%, respectively. In this population, IRIS was a common event, more so among patients with prior tuberculosis, and neither the rate of CD4 increase nor the Robertson criteria were useful in predicting its development.