Toward a leading indicator of catastrophic shifts in complex systems: Assessing changing conditions in nation states.

The 20th century was characterized by substantial change on a global scale. There were multiple wars and unrest, social and political transitions, technological innovation and widespread development that impacted every corner of the earth. In order to assess the sustainability implications of these changes, we conducted a study of three advanced nations particularly affected during this time: France, Germany and the United States (USA). All three nation states withstood these changes and yet continued to thrive, which speaks to their resilience. However, we were interested in determining whether any of these countries underwent a regime shift during this period and if they did, whether there was advanced warning that transition was imminent. This study seeks to evaluate systemic trends in each country by exploring key variables that describe its condition over time. We use Fisher Information to assess changing conditions in the nation states based on trends in social, economic and environmental variables and employ Bayes Theorem as an objective means of determining whether declines in Fisher information provide early warning signals of critical transitions. Results indicate that while the United States was relatively stable and France experienced a great deal of change during this period, only Germany appeared to undergo a regime shift. Further, each country exhibited decreasing Fisher information when approaching significant events (e.g., World Wars, Great Depression), and reflected unique mechanisms linked to dynamic changes in each nation state. This study highlights the potential of using trends in Fisher information as a sentinel for evaluating dynamic change and assessing resilience in coupled human and natural systems.

Doing science, technology and society in the National Science Foundation : commentary on: "Engaged, embedded, enjoined: science and technology studies in the National Science Foundation".

The author describes his efforts to become a participant observer while he was a Program Director at the NSF. He describes his plans for keeping track of his reflections and his goals before he arrived at NSF, then includes sections from his reflective diary and comments after he had completed his two-year rotation. The influx of rotators means the NSF has to be an adaptive, learning organization but there are bureaucratic obstacles in the way.

Using expert elicitation to prioritize resource allocation for risk identification for nanosilver.

This article introduces a method to identify risks through expert elicitation, using silver nanotechnology as a case study. Unique features of the method include supplying experts with a list of silver nanotechnology products, and conducting the elicitation in an extended interview format that captures the experts' reasoning. The end result is a series of graphical representations of expert thinking from which high-risk scenarios and knowledge gaps can be reliably inferred. This methodology, combined with other approaches to expert elicitation, can help identify knowledge and oversight gaps, and can be used as part of an adaptive management strategy.

Introduction to cognition in science and technology.

Cognitive studies of science and technology have had a long history of largely independent research projects that have appeared in multiple outlets, but rarely together. The emergence of a new International Society for Psychology of Science and Technology suggests that this is a good time to put some of the latest work in this area into topiCS in a way that will both acquaint readers with the cutting edge in this domain and also give them a hint of its history. One core theme includes how scientists, inventors, and engineers represent and solve problems; another, related theme is the extent to which they distribute and share cognition. Methodologies include fine-grained studies of historical records, protocols of working scientists, observations and comparisons of engineering science laboratories, and computational simulations designed both to serve as research tools and also to improve scientific problem-solving. The series of articles will conclude with the Associate Editor's suggestions for future research.

Using trading zones and life cycle analysis to understand nanotechnology regulation.

This article reviews the public health and environmental regulations applicable to nanotechnology using a life cycle model from basic research through end-of-life for products. Given nanotechnology's immense promise and public investment, regulations are important, balancing risk with the public good. Trading zones and earth systems engineering management assist in explaining potential solutions to gaps in an otherwise complex, overlapping regulatory system.

Collaborating on convergent technologies: education and practice.

Converging technologies will require collaboration across disciplines. A good metaphor for such collaborations is the kind of trading zone that emerges whenever human beings from different cultures interact. NBIC must avoid trading zones that are dominated by one discipline or set of interests and instead encourage multiple stakeholders to form a shared mental model of what needs to be accomplished. An example is drawn from current work on societal dimensions of nanotechnology. Students need to gain experience working in such trading zones, in addition to acquiring disciplinary depth.