Economic and labour market impacts of migration in Austria: an agent-based modelling approach.

This study examines the potential economic and labour market impacts of a hypothetical but plausible migration scenario of 250,000 new migrants inspired by Austria's experience in 2015. Using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Poledna et al. (Eur Econ Rev, 151:104306, 2023. 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2022.104306, the study explores the detailed labour market outcomes for different groups in Austria's population and the macroeconomic effects of the migration scenario. The analysis suggests that Austria's economy and labour market have the potential to be resilient to the simulated migration influx. The results indicate a positive impact on GDP due to increased aggregate consumption and investment. The labour market experiences an increase in the unemployment rates of natives and previous migrants. In some industries, the increase in the unemployment rates is more significant, potentially indicating competition among different groups of migrants. This research provides insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Austria and other countries that may face the challenge of managing large-scale migration in the near future. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40878-024-00374-3.

Projections of adult skills and the effect of COVID-19.

In this paper, we project Skills in Literacy Adjusted Mean Years of Schooling (SLAMYS) for the working age population in 45 countries and quinquennial time periods until 2050 according to various population scenarios. Moreover, we integrate the effect of school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic on these projections. Adult skills are projected using the cohort components method. They can help in assessing the potential consequences of the recent trends for the adult population, particularly the workforce, whose skills are essential for the jobs contributing to economic growth and development outlooks. Our projections are novel as they take into account both the amount of schooling and quality of education and also consider the changes in adult skills through lifetime. Projections show that the adult skills gap between countries in the Global North and countries in the Global South will likely continue to exist by 2050, even under very optimistic assumptions-but may widen or narrow depending on the demographic development trajectories specific to each country. Moreover, the loss of learning due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbates inequalities between countries. Particularly, in countries where schools have been closed for a prolonged period of time and the infrastructure for effective online schooling is lacking, the skills of cohorts who were in school during the pandemic have been severely affected. The fact that the duration of school closures has been longer in many low- and middle-income countries is a serious concern for achieving global human capital equality. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is projected to erase decades-long gains in adult skills for affected cohorts unless policies to mitigate learning loss are implemented immediately.

The relative importance of women's education on fertility desires in sub-Saharan Africa: A multilevel analysis.

Lowering desired family size is a necessary precondition for fertility declines in high-fertility settings. Although accumulated evidence links socio-economic developments to changing fertility desires, little research has disentangled the relative importance of key socio-economic determinants. Combining individual- and community-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys in 34 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, we compare the relative role of different socio-economic factors on fertility desires at the individual, community, and country levels. Results show that at the individual level, women's education has a stronger effect than household wealth and area of residence. The high levels of reported desired family size in rural parts of SSA are mainly a consequence of relatively lower levels of education. The relative impact of women's education is even stronger at the community level. Our findings are robust to alternative measures of fertility preferences and strengthen previous findings regarding the relationship between fertility and women's education.

Demographic and territorial characteristics of COVID-19 cases and excess mortality in the European Union during the first wave.

This article explores for a large number of countries in the European Union (plus the United Kingdom) the main demographic differentials in positive tested COVID-19 cases and excess mortality during the first wave in 2020, accounting for differences at territorial level, where population density and size play a main role in the diffusion and effects of the disease in terms of morbidity and mortality. This knowledge complements and refines the epidemiological information about the spread and impact of the virus. For this analysis, we rely on the descriptive exploration of (1) data from The European Surveillance System (TESSy) database developed at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) on the number of cases and fatality rates and (2) of weekly mortality data collected by Eurostat. The analysis at territorial level studies the changes in R0-the basic reproduction number-and median excess mortality, across territories with different levels of urbanization. The unique findings of this study encompassing most European Union Member States confirm and define the demographic and territorial differential impacts in terms of infections and fatalities during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020. The information is important for stakeholders at European Union, national and sub-national levels in charge of designing containment measures for COVID-19 and adaptation policies for the future by anticipating the rebound for certain segments of the population with differential medical and economic needs.

Skills-adjusted human capital shows rising global gap.

Human capital, broadly defined as the skills acquired through formal education, is acknowledged as one of the key drivers of economic growth and social development. However, its measurement for the working-age populations, on a global scale and over time, is still unsatisfactory. Most indicators either only consider the quantity dimension of education and disregard the actual skills or are demographically inconsistent by applying the skills of the young cohorts in school to represent the skills of the working-age population at the same time. In the case of rapidly expanding or changing school systems, this assumption is untenable. However, an increasing number of countries have started to assess the literacy skills of their adult populations by age and sex directly. Drawing on this literacy data, and by using demographic backprojection and statistical estimation techniques, we here present a demographically consistent indicator for adult literacy skills, the skills in literacy adjusted mean years of schooling (SLAMYS). The measure is given for the population aged 20 to 64 in 185 countries and for the period 1970 to 2015. Compared to the conventional mean years of schooling (MYS)-which has strongly increased for most countries over the past decades, and in particular among poor countries-the trends in SLAMYS exhibit a widening global skills gap between low- and high-performing countries.

Assessing changes in costs of maternal postpartum services between 2013 and 2014 in Burkina Faso.

INTRODUCTION: In Africa, a majority of women bring their infant to health services for immunization, but few are checked in the postpartum (PP) period. The Missed opportunities for maternal and infant health (MOMI) EU-funded project has implemented a package of interventions at community and facility levels to uptake maternal and infant postpartum care (PPC). One of these interventions is the integration of maternal PPC in child clinics and infant immunization services, which proved to be successful for improving maternal and infant PPC. AIM: Taking stock of the progress achieved in terms of PPC with the implementation of the interventions, this paper assesses the economic cost of maternal PPC services, for health services and households, before and after the project start in Kaya health district (Burkina Faso). METHODS: PPC costs to health services are estimated using secondary data on personnel and infrastructure and primary data on time allocation. Data from two household surveys collected before and after one year intervention among mothers within one year PP are used to estimate the household cost of maternal PPC visits. We also compare PPC costs for households and health services with or without integration. We focus on the costs of the PPC intervention at days 6-10 that was most successful. RESULTS: The average unit cost of health services for days 6-10 maternal PPC decreased from 4.6 USD before the intervention in 2013 (Jan-June) to 3.5 USD after the intervention implementation in 2014. Maternal PPC utilization increased with the implementation of the interventions but so did days 6-10 household mean costs. Similarly, the household costs increased with the integration of maternal PPC to BCG immunization. CONCLUSION: In the context of growing reproductive health expenditures from many funding sources in Burkina Faso, the uptake of maternal PPC led to a cost reduction, as shown for days 6-10, at health services level. Further research should determine whether the increase in costs for households would be deterrent to the use of integrated maternal and infant PPC.

Stalls in Africa's fertility decline partly result from disruptions in female education.

Population projections for sub-Saharan Africa have, over the past decade, been corrected upwards because in a number of countries, the earlier declining trends in fertility stalled around 2000. While most studies so far have focused on economic, political, or other factors around 2000, here we suggest that in addition to those period effects, the phenomenon also matched up with disruptions in the cohort trends of educational attainment of women after the postindependence economic and political turmoil. Disruptions likely resulted in a higher proportion of poorly educated women of childbearing age in the late 1990s and early 2000s than there would have been otherwise. In addition to the direct effects of education on lowering fertility, these less-educated female cohorts were also more vulnerable to adverse period effects around 2000. To explore this hypothesis, we combine individual-level data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 18 African countries with and without fertility stalls, thus creating a pooled dataset of more than two million births to some 670,000 women born from 1950 to 1995 by level of education. Statistical analyses indicate clear discontinuities in the improvement of educational attainment of subsequent cohorts of women and stronger sensitivity of less-educated women to period effects. We assess the magnitude of the effect of educational discontinuity through a comparison of the actual trends with counterfactual trends based on the assumption of no education stalls, resulting in up to half a child per woman less in 2010 and 13 million fewer live births over the 1995-2010 period.

Integration of postpartum care into child health and immunization services in Burkina Faso: findings from a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The Missed Opportunities for Maternal and Infant Health (MOMI) project, which aimed at upgrading maternal and infant postpartum care (PPC), implemented a package of interventions including the integration of maternal PPC in infant immunization services in 12 health facilities in Kaya Health district in Burkina Faso from 2013 to 2015. This paper assesses the coverage and the quality of combined mother-infant PPC in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services (RMNCH). METHODS: We conducted a mixed methods study with cross-sectional surveys before and after the intervention in the Kaya health and demographic surveillance system. On the quantitative side, two household surveys were performed in 2012 (N = 757) and in 2014 (N = 754) among mothers within one year postpartum. The analysis examines the result of the intervention by the date of delivery at three key time points in the PPC schedule: the first 48 h, days 6-10 and during weeks 6-8 and beyond. On the qualitative side, in depth interviews, focus group discussions and observations were conducted in four health facilities in 2012 and 2015. They involved mothers in the postpartum period, facility and community health workers, and other stakeholders. We performed a descriptive analysis and a two-sample test of proportions of the quantitative data. The qualitative data were recorded, transcribed and analysed along the themes relevant for the intervention. RESULTS: The findings show that the WHO guidelines, in terms of content and improvement of maternal PPC, were followed for physical examinations and consultations. They also show a significant increase in the coverage of maternal PPC services from 50% (372/752) before the intervention to 81% (544/672) one year after the start of the intervention. However, more women were assessed at days 6-10 than at later visits. Integration of maternal PPC was low, with little improvements in history taking and physical examination of mothers in immunization services. While health workers are polyvalent, difficulties in restructuring and organizing services hindered the integration. CONCLUSION: Unless a comprehensive strategy of integration within RMNCH services is implemented to address the primary health care challenges within the health system, integration will not yield the desired results.

A cross-sectional mixed study of the opportunity to improve maternal postpartum care in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health services in the Kaya health district of Burkina Faso.

OBJECTIVE: To propose a rationale to improve maternal postpartum care in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) services. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional mixed study in the Kaya health district in Burkina Faso based on two data collection exercises conducted between December 2012 and May 2013. A household survey of 757 mothers in their first year after delivery was processed. It was complemented with a qualitative analysis using in-depth interviews with key informants, focus group discussions with mothers, and participant observation. RESULTS: Postpartum services showed serious weaknesses. Overall, 52% (n=384) of mothers did not receive any maternal postpartum care; however among them, 47% (n= 349) received infant postpartum care. CONCLUSION: We suggest the integration of maternal postpartum care in RMNCH services as a key step to improving postpartum care. The intervention would require the overcoming of challenges related to the quality and cost of services, and to reaching the poor populations with low education and a high parity.

Human Capital, Values, and Attitudes of Persons Seeking Refuge in Austria in 2015.

Since its inception in 2010, the Arab Spring has evolved into a situation of violent conflict in many countries, leading to high levels of migration from the affected region. Given the social impact of the large number of individuals applying for asylum across Europe in 2015, it is important to study who these persons are in terms of their skills, motivations, and intentions. DiPAS (Displaced Persons in Austria Survey) aims to uncover the socio-demographic characteristics of the persons seeking refuge who arrived in Austria in 2015, mainly originating from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Particular focus is on human capital, attitudes and values. This survey, the first of its kind in Austria and possibly in Europe, was carried out among adult displaced persons, mostly residing in Vienna, yielding 514 completed interviews. Information gathered on spouses and children allows for the analysis of 972 persons living in Austria, and of further 419 partners and children abroad. Results indicate that the surveyed population comprised mainly young families with children, particularly those coming from Syria and Iraq. Their educational level is high compared with the average level in their country of origin. A vast majority of respondents are Muslims, rating their religiosity at medium levels. Judging from stated attitudes towards gender equity, interviewed men seem to have more liberal attitudes than their compatriots. The majority of respondents do not intend to return to their home countries, mostly because of the perception of permanent threat. DiPAS provides data for political decision-making and the on-going societal dialogue. Its findings can help to inform assessments about the integration potential of the displaced population into the host society. In addition, the applied methodological technique and experiences during the fieldwork provide valuable insights on sampling asylum seekers and refugees in the current European context.

American political affiliation, 2003-43: a cohort component projection.

The recent rise in identification with American political parties has focused interest on the long-term dynamics of party support. Liberal commentators cite immigration and youth as forces that will produce a natural advantage for the Democrats in the future, while conservative writers highlight the importance of high fertility amongst Republicans in securing growth. These opinions are not based on demographic analysis. We addressed this omission by undertaking the first ever cohort component projection (up to 2043) of populations by American party allegiance, based on survey and census data. On current trends, we predict that American partisanship will change much less than the nation's ethnic composition because the parties are similar in age structure. Nevertheless, our projections suggest that the Democrats will gain 2-3 per cent more support than the Republicans by 2043, mainly through immigration, although the higher fertility of Republicans may eventually offset that advantage.

Estimating least-developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years.

When will least developed countries be most vulnerable to climate change, given the influence of projected socio-economic development? The question is important, not least because current levels of international assistance to support adaptation lag more than an order of magnitude below what analysts estimate to be needed, and scaling up support could take many years. In this paper, we examine this question using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events, as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance. We develop a set of 50-year scenarios for these losses in one country, Mozambique, using high-resolution climate projections, and then extend the results to a sample of 23 least-developed countries. Our approach takes into account both potential changes in countries' exposure to climatic extreme events, and socio-economic development trends that influence countries' own adaptive capacities. Our results suggest that the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure in the second quarter of the century, and that it is in the period between now and then that vulnerability will rise most quickly. This implies an urgency to the need for international assistance to finance adaptation.