Spatiotemporal Analysis of Serogroup C Meningococcal Meningitis Spread in Niger and Nigeria and Implications for Epidemic Response.

BACKGROUND: After the re-emergence of serogroup C meningococcal meningitis (MM) in Nigeria and Niger, we aimed to re-evaluate the vaccination policy used to respond to outbreaks of MM in the African meningitis belt by investigating alternative strategies using a lower incidence threshold and information about neighboring districts. METHODS: We used data on suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases in Niger and Nigeria from 2013 to 2017. We calculated global and local Moran's I-statistics to identify spatial clustering of districts with high MM incidence. We used a Pinner model to estimate the impact of vaccination campaigns occurring between 2015 and 2017 and to evaluate the impact of 3 alternative district-level vaccination strategies, compared with that currently used. RESULTS: We found significant clustering of high incidence districts in every year, with local clusters around Tambuwal, Nigeria in 2013 and 2014, Niamey, Niger in 2016, and in Sokoto and Zamfara States in Nigeria in 2017.We estimate that the vaccination campaigns implemented in 2015, 2016, and 2017 prevented 6% of MM cases. Using the current strategy but with high coverage (85%) and timely distribution (4 weeks), these campaigns could have prevented 10% of cases. This strategy required the fewest doses of vaccine to prevent a case. None of the alternative strategies we evaluated were more efficient, but they would have prevented the occurrence of more cases overall. CONCLUSIONS: Although we observed significant spatial clustering in MM in Nigeria and Niger between 2013 and 2017, there is no strong evidence to support a change in methods for epidemic response in terms of lowering the intervention threshold or targeting neighboring districts for reactive vaccination.

Meningococcal Meningitis Outbreaks in the African Meningitis Belt After Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine Introduction, 2011-2017.

BACKGROUND: In 2010-2017, meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) was introduced in 21 African meningitis belt countries. Neisseria meningitidis A epidemics have been eliminated here; however, non-A serogroup epidemics continue. METHODS: We reviewed epidemiological and laboratory World Health Organization data after MACV introduction in 20 countries. Information from the International Coordinating Group documented reactive vaccination. RESULTS: In 2011-2017, 17 outbreaks were reported (31 786 suspected cases from 8 countries, 1-6 outbreaks/year). Outbreaks were of 18-14 542 cases in 113 districts (median 3 districts/outbreak). The most affected countries were Nigeria (17 375 cases) and Niger (9343 cases). Cumulative average attack rates per outbreak were 37-203 cases/100 000 population (median 112). Serogroup C accounted for 11 outbreaks and W for 6. The median proportion of laboratory confirmed cases was 20%. Reactive vaccination was conducted during 14 outbreaks (5.7 million people vaccinated, median response time 36 days). CONCLUSION: Outbreaks due to non-A serogroup meningococci continue to be a significant burden in this region. Until an affordable multivalent conjugate vaccine becomes available, the need for timely reactive vaccination and an emergency vaccine stockpile remains high. Countries must continue to strengthen detection, confirmation, and timeliness of outbreak control measures.

Case-Fatality Rates and Sequelae Resulting from Neisseria meningitidis Serogroup C Epidemic, Niger, 2015.

We describe clinical symptoms, case-fatality rates, and prevalence of sequelae during an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C infection in a rural district of Niger. During home visits, we established that household contacts of reported case-patients were at higher risk for developing meningitis than the general population.

Retrospective determination of whether famine existed in Niger, 2005: two stage cluster survey.

OBJECTIVE: To apply the famine scale by Howe and Devereux to the situation in Niger, west Africa, in 2005 to retrospectively determine whether famine existed. DESIGN: Two stage cluster survey. SETTING: Survey of households in each of Niger's eight regions. PARTICIPANTS: 4003 households. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude mortality, mortality in children under 5, and the proportion of caregivers both nationally and regionally adopting coping strategies to deal with insufficient food needs. RESULTS: The estimated national crude mortality rate was 0.4 (0.4 to 0.5) deaths per 10,000 per day and under 5 mortality rate was 1.7 (1.4 to 1.9) deaths per 10,000 per day. Nationally, 22.3% (95% confidence interval 19.9% to 24.8%) of caregivers of under 5s did not resort to any coping strategies to deal with insufficient food needs. Reversible coping strategies were, however, used by 5.8% (4.7% to 7.0%) of caregivers, whereas 49.4% (46.9% to 51.8%) relied on irreversible coping strategies and 22.6% (20.0% to 25.4%) on survival strategies. CONCLUSION: On the basis of the famine scale proposed by Howe and Devereux, most regions in Niger experienced food crisis conditions and some areas approached famine proportions.

Epidemiological patterns of meningococcal meningitis in Niger in 2003 and 2004: under the threat of N. meningitidis serogroup W135.

Since the Neisseria meningitidis serogroup W135 epidemic in Burkina Faso in 2002, the neighbouring countries dread undergoing outbreaks. Niger has strongly enhanced the microbiological surveillance, especially by adding the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay to the national framework of the surveillance system. During the 2003 epidemic season, 8113 clinically suspected cases of meningitis were notified and nine districts of the 42 crossed the epidemic threshold, while during the 2004 season, the number of cases was 3521 and four districts notified epidemics. In 2003 and 2004, serogroup A was identified in most N. meningitidis from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens (89.7% of 759 and 87.2% of 406, respectively). Although serogroup W135 represented only 8.3% of the meningococcal meningitis in 2003 and 7.9% in 2004, and was not involved in outbreaks, it was widespread in various areas of the country. In the regions that notified epidemics, the proportion of serogroup W135 was tiny while it exceeded 40% in several non-epidemic regions. Despite the wide distribution of W135 serogroup in Niger and the fears expressed in 2001, the threat of a large epidemic caused by N. meningitidis W135 seems to have been averted in Niger so far. There is no clear indication whether this serogroup will play a lasting role in the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis or not. As early as in the 1990s, a significant but transient increase in the incidence of N. meningitidis serogroup X was observed. Close microbiological surveillance is crucial for monitoring the threat and for identifying at the earliest the serogroups involved in epidemics.