Introduction to focus issue: Synchronization in large networks and continuous media-data, models, and supermodels.

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic systems has increasingly found applications to large networks of differential equations and to models of continuous media. These applications are at the core of the present Focus Issue. Synchronization between a system and its model, based on limited observations, gives a new perspective on data assimilation. Synchronization among different models of the same system defines a supermodel that can achieve partial consensus among models that otherwise disagree in several respects. Finally, novel methods of time series analysis permit a better description of synchronization in a system that is only observed partially and for a relatively short time. This Focus Issue discusses synchronization in extended systems or in components thereof, with particular attention to data assimilation, supermodeling, and their applications to various areas, from climate modeling to macroeconomics.

Detecting causality in policy diffusion processes.

A universal question in network science entails learning about the topology of interaction from collective dynamics. Here, we address this question by examining diffusion of laws across US states. We propose two complementary techniques to unravel determinants of this diffusion process: information-theoretic union transfer entropy and event synchronization. In order to systematically investigate their performance on law activity data, we establish a new stochastic model to generate synthetic law activity data based on plausible networks of interactions. Through extensive parametric studies, we demonstrate the ability of these methods to reconstruct networks, varying in size, link density, and degree heterogeneity. Our results suggest that union transfer entropy should be preferred for slowly varying processes, which may be associated with policies attending to specific local problems that occur only rarely or with policies facing high levels of opposition. In contrast, event synchronization is effective for faster enactment rates, which may be related to policies involving Federal mandates or incentives. This study puts forward a data-driven toolbox to explain the determinants of legal activity applicable to political science, across dynamical systems, information theory, and complex networks.

Survivability of Deterministic Dynamical Systems.

The notion of a part of phase space containing desired (or allowed) states of a dynamical system is important in a wide range of complex systems research. It has been called the safe operating space, the viability kernel or the sunny region. In this paper we define the notion of survivability: Given a random initial condition, what is the likelihood that the transient behaviour of a deterministic system does not leave a region of desirable states. We demonstrate the utility of this novel stability measure by considering models from climate science, neuronal networks and power grids. We also show that a semi-analytic lower bound for the survivability of linear systems allows a numerically very efficient survivability analysis in realistic models of power grids. Our numerical and semi-analytic work underlines that the type of stability measured by survivability is not captured by common asymptotic stability measures.

Collective relaxation dynamics of small-world networks.

Complex networks exhibit a wide range of collective dynamic phenomena, including synchronization, diffusion, relaxation, and coordination processes. Their asymptotic dynamics is generically characterized by the local Jacobian, graph Laplacian, or a similar linear operator. The structure of networks with regular, small-world, and random connectivities are reasonably well understood, but their collective dynamical properties remain largely unknown. Here we present a two-stage mean-field theory to derive analytic expressions for network spectra. A single formula covers the spectrum from regular via small-world to strongly randomized topologies in Watts-Strogatz networks, explaining the simultaneous dependencies on network size N, average degree k, and topological randomness q. We present simplified analytic predictions for the second-largest and smallest eigenvalue, and numerical checks confirm our theoretical predictions for zero, small, and moderate topological randomness q, including the entire small-world regime. For large q of the order of one, we apply standard random matrix theory, thereby overarching the full range from regular to randomized network topologies. These results may contribute to our analytic and mechanistic understanding of collective relaxation phenomena of network dynamical systems.

Small-world network spectra in mean-field theory.

Collective dynamics on small-world networks emerge in a broad range of systems with their spectra characterizing fundamental asymptotic features. Here we derive analytic mean-field predictions for the spectra of small-world models that systematically interpolate between regular and random topologies by varying their randomness. These theoretical predictions agree well with the actual spectra (obtained by numerical diagonalization) for undirected and directed networks and from fully regular to strongly random topologies. These results may provide analytical insights to empirically found features of dynamics on small-world networks from various research fields, including biology, physics, engineering, and social science.