Variability in the Timing of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Epidemics in Guatemala, 2008-2018.

BACKGROUND: The description of local seasonality patterns in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) incidence is important to guide the timing of administration of RSV immunization products. METHODS: We characterized RSV seasonality in Guatemala using the moving epidemic method (MEM) with absolute counts of RSV-associated acute respiratory infections (ARI) from hospital surveillance in Santa Rosa and Quetzaltenango departments of Guatemala. RESULTS: From Week 17 of 2008 through Week 16 of 2018, 8487 ARI cases tested positive for RSV by rRT-PCR. Season onsets varied up to 5 months; early seasons starting in late May to early August and finishing in September to November were most common, but late seasons starting in October to November and finishing in March to April were also observed. Both epidemic patterns had similar durations ranging from 4 to 6 months. Epidemic thresholds (the levels of virus activity that signal the onset and end of a seasonal epidemic) calculated prospectively using previous seasons' data captured between 70% and 99% of annual RSV detections. Onset weeks differed by 2-10 weeks, and offset weeks differed by 2-16 weeks between the two surveillance sites. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics in Guatemala demonstrates the difficulty in precisely predicting the timing of seasonal RSV epidemics based on onset weeks from past seasons and suggests that maximal reduction in RSV disease burden would be achieved through year-round vaccination and immunoprophylaxis administration to at-risk infants.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas or Biomass Cooking and Severe Infant Pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to household air pollution is a risk factor for severe pneumonia. The effect of replacing biomass cookstoves with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cookstoves on the incidence of severe infant pneumonia is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, controlled trial involving pregnant women 18 to 34 years of age and between 9 to less than 20 weeks' gestation in India, Guatemala, Peru, and Rwanda from May 2018 through September 2021. The women were assigned to cook with unvented LPG stoves and fuel (intervention group) or to continue cooking with biomass fuel (control group). In each trial group, we monitored adherence to the use of the assigned cookstove and measured 24-hour personal exposure to fine particulate matter (particles with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5]) in the women and their offspring. The trial had four primary outcomes; the primary outcome for which data are presented in the current report was severe pneumonia in the first year of life, as identified through facility surveillance or on verbal autopsy. RESULTS: Among 3200 pregnant women who had undergone randomization, 3195 remained eligible and gave birth to 3061 infants (1536 in the intervention group and 1525 in the control group). High uptake of the intervention led to a reduction in personal exposure to PM2.5 among the children, with a median exposure of 24.2 µg per cubic meter (interquartile range, 17.8 to 36.4) in the intervention group and 66.0 µg per cubic meter (interquartile range, 35.2 to 132.0) in the control group. A total of 175 episodes of severe pneumonia were identified during the first year of life, with an incidence of 5.67 cases per 100 child-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.55 to 7.07) in the intervention group and 6.06 cases per 100 child-years (95% CI, 4.81 to 7.62) in the control group (incidence rate ratio, 0.96; 98.75% CI, 0.64 to 1.44; P = 0.81). No severe adverse events were reported to be associated with the intervention, as determined by the trial investigators. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of severe pneumonia among infants did not differ significantly between those whose mothers were assigned to cook with LPG stoves and fuel and those whose mothers were assigned to continue cooking with biomass stoves. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; HAPIN ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02944682.).

Seroprevalence of high incidence congenital infections among pregnant women in Coatepeque, Guatemala and surrounding areas, 2017-2018.

Maternal infections during pregnancy can potentially cause birth defects and severe adverse effects in infants. From 2017 to 2018, we investigated the seroprevalence of five antibodies among 436 mother-infant pairs enrolled in a pregnancy cohort study in Coatepeque, Guatemala. Upon enrollment (< 20 weeks gestational age) and shortly after delivery, we measured the prevalence of IgG and IgM antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii (T. gondii), rubella, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) in mothers and newborns and used rapid tests to detect HIV and syphilis (Treponema pallidum) in mothers. The mean cohort age was 24.5 years. Maternal T. gondii IgM and IgG seropositivity was 1.9% and 69.7%, respectively. No women were positive for HIV, syphilis, or rubella IgM. Maternal rubella IgG seropositivity was 80.8% and significantly increased with age. Maternal CMV IgM and IgG seropositivity were 2.3% and 99.5%, respectively. Of the 323 women tested at both timepoints, IgM reactivation occurred in one woman for T. gondii infection and in eight for CMV. No newborn was seropositive for CMV IgM or rubella IgM. One newborn was seropositive for T. gondii IgM. Congenital T. gondii and CMV infections are important public health issues for pregnant women, newborns, and healthcare providers in Coatepeque and Guatemala.

Sensitivity and representativeness of one-health surveillance for diseases of zoonotic potential at health facilities relative to household visits in rural Guatemala.

Most human and animal disease notification systems are unintegrated and passive, resulting in underreporting. Active surveillance can complement passive efforts, but because they are resource-intensive, their attributes must be evaluated. We assessed the sensitivity and representativeness of One-Health surveillance conducted at health facilities compared to health facilities plus monthly household visits in three rural communities of Guatemala. From September 2017 to November 2018, we screened humans for acute diarrheal, febrile and respiratory infectious syndromes and canines, swine, equines and bovines for syndromic events or deaths. We estimated the relative sensitivity as the incidence rate ratio of detecting an event in health facility surveillance compared to household surveillance from Poisson models. We used interaction terms between the surveillance method and sociodemographic factors or time trends to assess effect modification as a measure of relative representativeness. We used generalized additive models with smoothing splines to model incidence over time by surveillance method. We randomized 216 households to health facility surveillance and 198 to health facility surveillance plus monthly household visits. Health facility surveillance alone was less sensitive than when combined with household surveillance by 0.42 (95% CI: 0.34, 0.53), 0.56 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.79), 0.02 (95% CI: 0.00, 0.10), 0.28 (95% CI: 0.15, 0.50) and 0.22 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.92) times for human acute infections, human severe acute infections, and deaths in canines, swine and equines, respectively. Health facility surveillance alone underrepresented Spanish speakers (interaction p-value = 0.0003) and persons in higher economic assets (interaction p-values = 0.0008). The trend in incidence over time was different between the two study groups, with a larger decrease in the group with household surveillance (all interaction p-values <0.10). Surveillance at health facilities under ascertains syndromes in humans and animals which leads to underestimation of the burden of zoonotic disease. The magnitude of under ascertainment was differentially by sociodemographic factors, yielding an unrepresentative sample of health events. However, it is less time-intensive, thus might be sustained over time longer than household surveillance. The choice between methodologies should be evaluated against surveillance goals and available resources.

Effectiveness of Gas and Chimney Biomass Stoves for Reducing Household Air Pollution Pregnancy Exposure in Guatemala: Sociodemographic Effect Modifiers.

Household air pollution (HAP) due to solid fuel use during pregnancy is associated with adverse birth outcomes. The real-life effectiveness of clean cooking interventions has been disappointing overall yet variable, but the sociodemographic determinants are not well described. We measured personal 24-h PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) thrice in pregnant women (n = 218) gravimetrically with Teflon filter, impactor, and personal pump setups. To estimate the effectiveness of owning chimney and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves (i.e., proportion of PM2.5 exposure that would be prevented) and to predict subject-specific typical exposures, we used linear mixed-effects models with log (PM2.5) as dependent variable and random intercept for subject. Median (IQR) personal PM2.5 in µg/m3 was 148 (90-249) for open fire, 78 (51-125) for chimney stove, and 55 (34-79) for LPG stoves. Adjusted effectiveness of LPG stoves was greater in women with ≥6 years of education (49% (95% CI: 34, 60)) versus <6 years (26% (95% CI: 5, 42)). In contrast, chimney stove adjusted effectiveness was greater in women with <6 years of education (50% (95% CI: 38, 60)), rural residence (46% (95% CI: 34, 55)) and lowest SES (socio-economic status) quartile (59% (95% CI: 45, 70)) than ≥6 years education (16% (95% CI: 22, 43)), urban (23% (95% CI: -164, 42)) and highest SES quartile (-44% (95% CI: -183, 27)), respectively. A minority of LPG stove owners (12%) and no chimney owner had typical exposure below World Health Organization Air Quality guidelines (35 µg/m3). Although having a cleaner stove alone typically does not lower exposure enough to protect health, understanding sociodemographic determinants of effectiveness may lead to better targeting, implementation, and adoption of interventions.

Availability of over-the-counter antibiotics in Guatemalan corner stores.

Widespread availability of antibiotics without prescription potentially facilitates overuse and contributes to selection pressure for antimicrobial resistant bacteria. Prior to this study, anecdotal observations in Guatemala identified corner stores as primary antibiotic dispensaries, where people purchase antibiotics without prescriptions. We carried out a cross sectional study to document the number and types of antibiotics available in corner stores, in four study areas in Guatemala. A total of 443 corner stores were surveyed, of which 295 (67%) sold antibiotics. The most commonly available antibiotics were amoxicillin, found in 246/295 (83%) stores, and tetracycline, found in 195/295 (66%) stores. Over the counter sales result from laissez-faire enforcement of antibiotic dispensing regulations in Guatemala combined with patient demand. This study serves as a baseline to document changes in the availability of antibiotics in informal establishments in light of new pharmacy regulations for antibiotic dispensing, which were adopted after this study was completed.

Maternal height associated with cesarean section. A cross-sectional study using the 2014-2015 national maternal-child health survey in Guatemala.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status is associated with cesarean section (CS). Maternal height, however, may be another related factor to CS. In Guatemala, a quarter of women between 15 and 49 years of age are shorter than 145 cm. Therefore, this study aims to examine the association of maternal height with cesarean section in Guatemala. METHODS: We carried out a secondary analysis study using data from the 2014-15 Guatemalan national maternal and child health survey-9542 mothers aged 15-49 and 12,426 live births were analyzed. We obtained the prevalence ratio of the association between maternal height and CS based on three Poisson regression models. One model included all live births, another the first live birth, and a third model the last live birth. For each model, we accounted for covariates and sampling design. RESULTS: The national prevalence of CS was 26.3% (95%CI: 25.0, 27.7). The adjusted prevalence ratio of CS, including all live births, was 1.63 (95%CI: 1.37, 1.94) more likely in mothers shorter than 145 cm compared with those equal or greater than 170 cm. This figure was 1.45 (95%CI: 1.19, 1.76) in the model with the first live birth. In the model with the last birth, maternal height was not associated with CS after accounting for previous CS as one of the covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of CS in this setting was high and above international recommendations. Further, very short mothers were more likely to experience CS compared to taller mothers after accounting for covariates, except when a previous CS was present. Maternal height should be included in clinical assessments during prenatal care.

Modelling subject-specific childhood growth using linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines.

BACKGROUND: Childhood growth is a cornerstone of pediatric research. Statistical models need to consider individual trajectories to adequately describe growth outcomes. Specifically, well-defined longitudinal models are essential to characterize both population and subject-specific growth. Linear mixed-effect models with cubic regression splines can account for the nonlinearity of growth curves and provide reasonable estimators of population and subject-specific growth, velocity and acceleration. METHODS: We provide a stepwise approach that builds from simple to complex models, and account for the intrinsic complexity of the data. We start with standard cubic splines regression models and build up to a model that includes subject-specific random intercepts and slopes and residual autocorrelation. We then compared cubic regression splines vis-à-vis linear piecewise splines, and with varying number of knots and positions. Statistical code is provided to ensure reproducibility and improve dissemination of methods. Models are applied to longitudinal height measurements in a cohort of 215 Peruvian children followed from birth until their fourth year of life. RESULTS: Unexplained variability, as measured by the variance of the regression model, was reduced from 7.34 when using ordinary least squares to 0.81 (p < 0.001) when using a linear mixed-effect models with random slopes and a first order continuous autoregressive error term. There was substantial heterogeneity in both the intercept (p < 0.001) and slopes (p < 0.001) of the individual growth trajectories. We also identified important serial correlation within the structure of the data (ρ = 0.66; 95 % CI 0.64 to 0.68; p < 0.001), which we modeled with a first order continuous autoregressive error term as evidenced by the variogram of the residuals and by a lack of association among residuals. The final model provides a parametric linear regression equation for both estimation and prediction of population- and individual-level growth in height. We show that cubic regression splines are superior to linear regression splines for the case of a small number of knots in both estimation and prediction with the full linear mixed effect model (AIC 19,352 vs. 19,598, respectively). While the regression parameters are more complex to interpret in the former, we argue that inference for any problem depends more on the estimated curve or differences in curves rather than the coefficients. Moreover, use of cubic regression splines provides biological meaningful growth velocity and acceleration curves despite increased complexity in coefficient interpretation. CONCLUSIONS: Through this stepwise approach, we provide a set of tools to model longitudinal childhood data for non-statisticians using linear mixed-effect models.

A cross-sectional study of determinants of indoor environmental exposures in households with and without chronic exposure to biomass fuel smoke.

BACKGROUND: Burning biomass fuels indoors for cooking is associated with high concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO). More efficient biomass-burning stoves and chimneys for ventilation have been proposed as solutions to reduce indoor pollution. We sought to quantify indoor PM and CO exposures in urban and rural households and determine factors associated with higher exposures. A secondary objective was to identify chronic vs. acute changes in cardiopulmonary biomarkers associated with exposure to biomass smoke. METHODS: We conducted a census survey followed by a cross-sectional study of indoor environmental exposures and cardiopulmonary biomarkers in the main household cook in Puno, Peru. We measured 24-hour indoor PM and CO concentrations in 86 households. We also measured PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations gravimetrically for 24 hours in urban households and during cook times in rural households, and generated a calibration equation using PM2.5 measurements. RESULTS: In a census of 4903 households, 93% vs. 16% of rural vs. urban households used an open-fire stove; 22% of rural households had a homemade chimney; and <3% of rural households participated in a national program encouraging installation of a chimney. Median 24-hour indoor PM2.5 and CO concentrations were 130 vs. 22 µg/m3 and 5.8 vs. 0.4 ppm (all p<0.001) in rural vs. urban households. Having a chimney did not significantly reduce median concentrations in 24-hour indoor PM2.5 (119 vs. 137 µg/m3; p=0.40) or CO (4.6 vs. 7.2 ppm; p=0.23) among rural households with and without chimneys. Having a chimney did not significantly reduce median cook-time PM2.5 (360 vs. 298 µg/m3, p=0.45) or cook-time CO concentrations (15.2 vs. 9.4 ppm, p=0.23). Having a thatched roof (p=0.007) and hours spent cooking (p=0.02) were associated with higher 24-hour average PM concentrations. Rural participants had higher median exhaled CO (10 vs. 6 ppm; p=0.01) and exhaled carboxyhemoglobin (1.6% vs. 1.0%; p=0.04) than urban participants. CONCLUSIONS: Indoor air concentrations associated with biomass smoke were six-fold greater in rural vs. urban households. Having a homemade chimney did not reduce environmental exposures significantly. Measures of exhaled CO provide useful cardiopulmonary biomarkers for chronic exposure to biomass smoke.

Short report: concurrent detection of Trypanosoma cruzi lineages I and II in domestic Triatoma dimidiata from Guatemala.

The agent of Chagas disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, is phylogenetically divided into two lineages, T. cruzi I (TCI) and II (TCII). TCI is found in sylvatic and domestic habitats across South America. Despite a high prevalence of TCII in domestic habitats in South America, it has been rarely found in domestic habitats in Central America and Mexico. This may be caused by limitations in detection tests previously used. A modified hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction assay was developed to improve detection of TCI and TCII mini-exon genes. This method detected TCI and II concurrently in 84% of 44 cultured isolates from Triatoma dimidiata specimens collected inside homes across the disease-endemic area in Guatemala.