Smoking Cessation and Short- and Longer-Term Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Smoking cessation reduces mortality and morbidity. However, the extent and rapidity at which cessation reduces contemporary death rates from smoking-related illnesses remain uncertain. METHODS: We pooled current or former versus never cigarette smoker hazard ratios from four national cohorts with linkage to death registries in the United States, United Kingdom, Norway, and Canada among adults 20 to 79 years of age from 1974 to 2018. We calculated excess risk differences and survival, comparing current or never smokers with age-specific cessation and cessation fewer than 3, 3 to 9, or 10 or more years earlier. RESULTS: Among 1.48 million adults followed for 15 years, 122,697 deaths occurred. Adjusting for age, education, alcohol use, and obesity, current smokers had higher hazard ratios for death compared with never smokers (2.8 for women, 2.7 for men). Survival between 40 and 79 years of age was 12 and 13 years less in women and men, respectively, who smoked compared with never smokers (about 24 to 26 years of life lost for smokers who died from smoking combined with zero loss for smokers who did not die from smoking). Former smokers showed lower hazard ratios (1.3 in both women and men). Short-term cessation for fewer than 3 years was associated with a lower excess risk of 95% in women and 90% in men younger than 40 years of age, with notable beneficial associations also in women and men 40 to 49 years of age (81% and 61%, respectively) and 50 to 59 years of age (63% and 54%, respectively). Cessation at every age was associated with longer survival, particularly cessation before 40 years of age. Among all ages and compared with continued smoking, cessation of fewer than 3 years potentially averted 5 years of life lost and cessation for 10 or more years averted about 10 years of life lost, yielding survival similar to that of never smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Quitting smoking at any age, but particularly in younger years, was associated with lower excess mortality overall and from vascular, respiratory, and neoplastic diseases. Beneficial associations were evident as early as 3 years after cessation. (Funded by Canadian Institutes of Health Research [FDN-154277].)

Prediagnostic serum glyceraldehyde-derived advanced glycation end products and mortality among colorectal cancer patients.

Glyceraldehyde-derived advanced glycation end products (glycer-AGEs) could contribute to colorectal cancer development and progression due to their pro-oxidative and pro-inflammatory properties. However, the association of glycer-AGEs with mortality after colorectal cancer diagnosis has not been previously investigated. Circulating glycer-AGEs were measured by competitive ELISA. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations of circulating glycer-AGEs concentrations with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 1034 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases identified within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study between 1993 and 2013. During a mean of 48 months of follow-up, 529 participants died (409 from CRC). Glycer-AGEs were statistically significantly positively associated with CRC-specific (HRQ5 vs Q1  = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.04-2.25, Ptrend  = .002) and all-cause (HRQ5 vs Q1  = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.16-2.26, Ptrend  < .001) mortality among individuals with CRC. There was suggestion of a stronger association between glycer-AGEs and CRC-specific mortality among patients with distal colon cancer (per SD increment: HRproximal colon  = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.74-1.42; HRdistal colon  = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.20-1.91; Peffect modification  = .02). The highest HR was observed among CRC cases in the highest body mass index (BMI) and glycer-AGEs category relative to lowest BMI and glycer-AGEs category for both CRC-specific (HR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.02-3.01) and all-cause mortality (HR = 2.15, 95% CI: 1.33-3.47), although no statistically significant effect modification was observed. Our study found that prediagnostic circulating glycer-AGEs are positively associated with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among individuals with CRC. Further investigations in other populations and stratifying by tumor location and BMI are warranted.

Smoking and pancreatic cancer: a sex-specific analysis in the Multiethnic Cohort study.

PURPOSE: To examine whether the detrimental smoking-related association with pancreatic cancer (PC) is the same for women as for men. METHODS: We analyzed data from 192,035 participants aged 45-75 years, enrolled in the Multiethnic Cohort study (MEC) in 1993-1996. We identified PC cases via linkage to the Hawaii and California Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program cancer registries through December 2017. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 19.2 years, we identified 1,936 incident PC cases. Women smokers smoked on average less than men smokers. In multivariate Cox regression models, as compared with sex-specific never smokers, current smokers had a similar elevated risk of PC for women, hazard ratio (HR) 1.49 (95% CI 1.24, 1.79) and as for men, HR 1.48 (95% CI 1.22, 1.79) (pheterogeneity: 0.79). Former smokers showed a decrease in risk of PC for men within 5 years, HR 0.74 (95% CI 0.57, 0.97) and for women within 10 years after quitting, HR 0.70 (95% CI 0.50, 0.96), compared with their sex-specific current smokers. Both sexes showed a consistent, strong, positive dose-response association with PC for the four measures (age at initiation, duration, number of cigarettes per day, number of pack-years) of smoking exposure among current smokers and an inverse association for years of quitting and age at smoking cessation among former smokers (all ptrend's < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although MEC women smoke on average less than their men counterparts, the smoking-related increase in PC risk and the benefits of cessation seem to be of similar magnitudes for women as for men.

Factors associated with predictors of smoking cessation from a Norwegian internet-based smoking cessation intervention study.

INTRODUCTION: We examined if we could identify predictors for smoking cessation at six months post cessation, among smokers enrolled in a large Norwegian population-based intervention study. METHODS: We followed 4333 (72.1% women) smokers who enrolled in an internet-based smoking cessation intervention during 2010-2012. The baseline questionnaire collected information on sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, including current snus use. The cessation outcome was self-reported no smoking past seven days, at six months. We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals, to identify predictors of smoking cessation, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Women (OR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.01-1.69) compared with men, and those with medium (OR=1.31; 95% CI: 1.02-1.68) and longer (OR=1.42; 95% CI: 1.06-1.90) education compared with those with shorter education, were more likely to be successful quitters.Overall, being a student (OR=0.56; 95% CI: 0.37-0.85) compared with having full-time work, and a moderate to high Fagerström test for nicotine dependence (FTND) score (OR=0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.87) compared with a low score, were predictors for unsuccessful cessation. Current snus use was a predictor for unsuccessful cessation compared to no snus use for both men (OR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.28-0.88) and women (OR=0.49; 95% CI: 0.32-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies female sex and longer education as predictors for successful smoking cessation, while a medium or high FTND score, being a student, and current snus use, were predictors for unsuccessful smoking cessation. Only current snus use was a predictor for unsuccessful cessation for both sexes. Our results indicate that smokers should be warned that snus use may prevent successful smoking cessation.

Cigarette Smoking and Endometrial Cancer Risk: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: Current epidemiologic evidence indicates that smoking is associated with a lower endometrial cancer risk. However, it is unknown if this association is causal or confounded. To further elucidate the role of smoking in endometrial cancer risk, we conducted complementary observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. METHODS: The observational analyses included 286,415 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition and 179,271 participants in the UK Biobank, and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used. In two-sample MR analyses, genetic variants robustly associated with lifetime amount of smoking (n = 126 variants) and ever having smoked regularly (n = 112 variants) were selected and their association with endometrial cancer risk (12,906 cancer/108,979 controls from the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium) was examined. RESULTS: In the observational analysis, lifetime amount of smoking and ever having smoked regularly were associated with a lower endometrial cancer risk. In the MR analysis accounting for body mass index, a genetic predisposition to a higher lifetime amount of smoking was not associated with endometrial cancer risk (OR per 1-SD increment: 1.15; 95% confidence interval: 0.91-1.44). Genetic predisposition to ever having smoked regularly was not associated with risk of endometrial cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking was inversely associated with endometrial cancer in the observational analyses, although unsupported by the MR. Additional studies are required to better understand the possible confounders and mechanisms underlying the observed associations between smoking and endometrial cancer. IMPACT: The results from this analysis indicate that smoking is unlikely to be causally linked with endometrial cancer risk.

Circulating inflammatory biomarkers, adipokines and breast cancer risk-a case-control study nested within the EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status. METHODS: Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration. RESULTS: Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77-1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76-1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75-1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05-1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01-1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99-1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68-1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66-0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72-1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96-1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89-1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92-1.16)]. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Long-term weight change and risk of breast cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

BACKGROUND: The role of obesity and weight change in breast-cancer development is complex and incompletely understood. We investigated long-term weight change and breast-cancer risk by body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years, menopausal status, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and hormone-receptor status. METHODS: Using data on weight collected at three different time points from women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we investigated the association between weight change from age 20 years until middle adulthood and risk of breast cancer. RESULTS: In total, 150 257 women with a median age of 51 years at cohort entry were followed for an average of 14 years (standard deviation = 3.9) during which 6532 breast-cancer cases occurred. Compared with women with stable weight (±2.5 kg), long-term weight gain >10 kg was positively associated with postmenopausal breast-cancer risk in women who were lean at age 20 [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.22-1.65] in ever HRT users (HR = 1.23; 1.04-1.44), in never HRT users (HR = 1.40; 1.16-1.68) and in oestrogen-and-progesterone-receptor-positive (ER+PR+) breast cancer (HR = 1.46; 1.15-1.85). CONCLUSION: Long-term weight gain was positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer in women who were lean at age 20, both in HRT ever users and non-users, and hormone-receptor-positive breast cancer.

Never-smokers and the fraction of breast cancer attributable to second-hand smoke from parents during childhood: the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study 1991-2018.

BACKGROUND: Second-hand smoke (SHS) is not an established risk factor for breast cancer. We examined exposure to SHS from parents during childhood and breast-cancer risk overall and by oestrogen- and progesterone-receptor status in the Norwegian Women and Cancer Study. Furthermore, we utilized our nationally representative prospective cohort study to estimate the fraction of breast cancer attributable to parental SHS during childhood. METHODS: We followed 45 923 never-smoking women, aged 34-70 years, who completed a baseline questionnaire between 1991 and 2007 through linkages to national registries through December 2018. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to estimate age-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We estimated the attributable and the population attributable fraction of breast cancer with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 19.8 (6.8) years, 2185 women developed invasive breast cancer, confirmed by histology. Women exposed to SHS from parents during childhood had an 11% higher (95% CI: 1.02-1.22) risk of breast cancer compared with those who were not. No difference was found for oestrogen (Pheterogeneity = 0.31) and progesterone (Pheterogeneity = 0.95) receptor status. For women exposed, the attributable fraction was 10.3% (95% CI: 1.8-18.0), whereas the population attributable fraction of breast cancer was 7.0% (95% CI: 1.0-13.0). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that 1 in 14 breast-cancer cases could have been avoided in the absence of SHS exposure from parents during childhood in a population of never-smoking women. The cancer burden attributable to SHS may be underestimated.

Prospective evaluation of 92 serum protein biomarkers for early detection of ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: CA125 is the best available yet insufficiently sensitive biomarker for early detection of ovarian cancer. There is a need to identify novel biomarkers, which individually or in combination with CA125 can achieve adequate sensitivity and specificity for the detection of earlier-stage ovarian cancer. METHODS: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, we measured serum levels of 92 preselected proteins for 91 women who had blood sampled ≤18 months prior to ovarian cancer diagnosis, and 182 matched controls. We evaluated the discriminatory performance of the proteins as potential early diagnostic biomarkers of ovarian cancer. RESULTS: Nine of the 92 markers; CA125, HE4, FOLR1, KLK11, WISP1, MDK, CXCL13, MSLN and ADAM8 showed an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of ≥0.70 for discriminating between women diagnosed with ovarian cancer and women who remained cancer-free. All, except ADAM8, had shown at least equal discrimination in previous case-control comparisons. The discrimination of the biomarkers, however, was low for the lag-time of >9-18 months and paired combinations of CA125 with any of the 8 markers did not improve discrimination compared to CA125 alone. CONCLUSION: Using pre-diagnostic serum samples, this study identified markers with good discrimination for the lag-time of 0-9 months. However, the discrimination was low in blood samples collected more than 9 months prior to diagnosis, and none of the markers showed major improvement in discrimination when added to CA125.

Dietary Intake of Advanced Glycation End Products (AGEs) and Mortality among Individuals with Colorectal Cancer.

Advanced glycation end-products (AGEs) may promote oxidative stress and inflammation and have been linked to multiple chronic diseases, including cancer. However, the association of AGEs with mortality after colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosis has not been previously investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals for associations between dietary intake of AGEs with CRC-specific and all-cause mortality among 5801 participant cases diagnosed with CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study between 1993 and 2013. Dietary intakes of AGEs were estimated using country-specific dietary questionnaires, linked to an AGE database, that accounted for food preparation and processing. During a median of 58 months of follow-up, 2421 cases died (1841 from CRC). Individually or combined, dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with all-cause and CRC-specific mortality among cases. However, there was a suggestion for a positive association between AGEs and all-cause or CRC-specific mortality among CRC cases without type II diabetes (all-cause, Pinteraction = 0.05) and CRC cases with the longest follow-up between recruitment and cancer diagnosis (CRC-specific, Pinteraction = 0.003; all-cause, Pinteraction = 0.01). Our study suggests that pre-diagnostic dietary intakes of AGEs were not associated with CRC-specific or all-cause mortality among CRC patients. Further investigations using biomarkers of AGEs and stratifying by sex, diabetes status, and timing of exposure to AGEs are warranted.

Polyphenol Intake and Epithelial Ovarian Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Study.

Despite some epidemiological evidence on the protective effects of polyphenol intake on epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk from case-control studies, the evidence is scarce from prospective studies and non-existent for several polyphenol classes. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the associations between the intake of total, classes and subclasses of polyphenols and EOC risk in a large prospective study. The study was conducted in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, which included 309,129 adult women recruited mostly from the general population. Polyphenol intake was assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires and the Phenol-Explorer database. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 1469 first incident EOC cases (including 806 serous, 129 endometrioid, 102 mucinous, and 67 clear cell tumours) were identified. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, the hazard ratio in the highest quartile of total polyphenol intake compared with the lowest quartile (HRQ4vsQ1) was 1.14 (95% CI 0.94-1.39; p-trend = 0.11). Similarly, the intake of most classes and subclasses of polyphenols were not related to either overall EOC risk or any EOC subtype. A borderline statistically significant positive association was observed between phenolic acid intake (HRQ4vsQ1 = 1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.43; p-trend = 0.02) and EOC risk, especially for the serous subtype and in women with obesity, although these associations did not exceed the Bonferroni correction threshold. The current results do not support any association between polyphenol intake and EOC in our large European prospective study. Results regarding phenolic acid intake need further investigation.

Prospective analysis of circulating metabolites and endometrial cancer risk.

BACKGROUND: Endometrial cancer is strongly associated with obesity and dysregulation of metabolic factors such as estrogen and insulin signaling are causal risk factors for this malignancy. To identify additional novel metabolic pathways associated with endometrial cancer we performed metabolomic analyses on pre-diagnostic plasma samples from 853 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: A total of 129 metabolites (acylcarnitines, amino acids, biogenic amines, glycerophospholipids, hexoses, and sphingolipids) were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Conditional logistic regression estimated the associations of metabolites with endometrial cancer risk. An analysis focusing on clusters of metabolites using the bootstrap lasso method was also employed. RESULTS: After adjustment for body mass index, sphingomyelin [SM] C18:0 was positively (OR1SD: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.05-1.33), and glycine, serine, and free carnitine (C0) were inversely (OR1SD: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.80-0.99; OR1SD: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.79-1.00 and OR1SD: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.81-1.00, respectively) associated with endometrial cancer risk. Serine, C0 and two sphingomyelins were selected by the lasso method in >90% of the bootstrap samples. The ratio of esterified to free carnitine (OR1SD: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.28) and that of short chain to free acylcarnitines (OR1SD: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.00-1.25) were positively associated with endometrial cancer risk. Further adjustment for C-peptide or other endometrial cancer risk factors only minimally altered the results. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that variation in levels of glycine, serine, SM C18:0 and free carnitine may represent specific pathways linked to endometrial cancer development. If causal, these pathways may offer novel targets for endometrial cancer prevention.

Inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of breast cancer in the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study.

The role of chronic inflammation on breast cancer (BC) risk remains unclear beyond as an underlying mechanism of obesity and physical activity. We aimed to evaluate the association between the inflammatory potential of the diet and risk of BC overall, according to menopausal status and tumour subtypes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 318,686 women were followed for 14 years, among whom 13,246 incident BC cases were identified. The inflammatory potential of the diet was characterized by an inflammatory score of the diet (ISD). Multivariable Cox regression models were used to assess the potential effect of the ISD on BC risk by means of hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). ISD was positively associated with BC risk. Each increase of one standard deviation (1-Sd) of the score increased by 4% the risk of BC (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.07). Women in the highest quintile of the ISD (indicating a most pro-inflammatory diet) had a 12% increase in risk compared with those in the lowest quintile (HR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.04-1.21) with a significant trend. The association was strongest among premenopausal women, with an 8% increased risk for 1-Sd increase in the score (HR = 1.08; 95% CI 1.01-1.14). The pattern of the association was quite homogeneous by BC subtypes based on hormone receptor status. There were no significant interactions between ISD and body mass index, physical activity, or alcohol consumption. Women consuming more pro-inflammatory diets as measured by ISD are at increased risk for BC, especially premenopausal women.

Causal Effects of Lifetime Smoking on Breast and Colorectal Cancer Risk: Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Observational evidence has shown that smoking is a risk factor for breast and colorectal cancer. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine causal associations between smoking and risks of breast and colorectal cancer. METHODS: Genome-Wide Association Study summary data were used to identify genetic variants associated with lifetime amount of smoking (n = 126 variants) and ever having smoked regularly (n = 112 variants). Using two-sample MR, we examined these variants in relation to incident breast (122,977 cases/105,974 controls) and colorectal cancer (52,775 cases/45,940 controls). RESULTS: In inverse-variance weighted models, a genetic predisposition to higher lifetime amount of smoking was positively associated with breast cancer risk [OR per 1-SD increment: 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.26; P = 0.04]; although heterogeneity was observed. Similar associations were found for estrogen receptor-positive and estrogen receptor-negative tumors. Higher lifetime amount of smoking was positively associated with colorectal cancer (OR per 1-SD increment, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.40; P = 0.01), colon cancer (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11-1.55; P < 0.01), and rectal cancer (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.07-1.73; P = 0.01). Ever having smoked regularly was not associated with risks of breast (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.14; P = 0.85) or colorectal cancer (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.86-1.10; P = 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with prior observational evidence and support a causal role of higher lifetime smoking amount in the development of breast and colorectal cancer. IMPACT: The results from this comprehensive MR analysis indicate that lifetime smoking is a causal risk factor for these common malignancies.

Red Blood Cell Fatty Acids and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND: A growing body of evidence suggests that alterations of dietary fatty acid (FA) profiles are associated with colorectal cancer risk. However, data from large-scale epidemiologic studies using circulating FA measurements to objectively assess individual FA and FA categories are scarce. METHODS: We investigate the association between red blood cell (RBC) membrane FAs and risk of colorectal cancer in a case-control study nested within a large prospective cohort. After a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 1,069 incident colorectal cancer cases were identified and matched to 1,069 controls among participants of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The FA composition of RBC phospholipids (in mol%) was analyzed by gas chromatography, and their association with risk of colorectal cancer was estimated by multivariable adjusted conditional logistic regression models. RESULTS: After correction for multiple testing, subjects with higher concentrations of RBC stearic acid were at higher risk for colorectal cancer (OR = 1.23; 95% CI = 1.07-1.42, per 1 mol%). Conversely, colorectal cancer incidence decreased with increasing proportions of RBC n-3 PUFA, particularly eicosapentaenoic acid (0.75; 0.62-0.92, per 1 mol%). The findings for the n-6 PUFA arachidonic acid were inconsistent. CONCLUSIONS: The positive association between prediagnostic RBC stearic acid and colorectal cancer reflects putative differences in FA intake and metabolism between cancer cases and matched controls, which deserve further investigation. The inverse relationship between EPA and colorectal cancer is in line with the repeatedly reported protective effect of fish consumption on colorectal cancer risk. IMPACT: These findings add to the evidence on colorectal cancer prevention.

Risk Prediction for Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) has the potential to improve disease outcomes. No screening program for sporadic RCC is in place. Given relatively low incidence, screening would need to focus on people at high risk of clinically meaningful disease so as to limit overdiagnosis and screen-detected false positives. METHODS: Among 192,172 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (including 588 incident RCC cases), we evaluated a published RCC risk prediction model (including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status) in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (observed probability as a function of predicted probability). We used a flexible parametric survival model to develop an expanded model including age, sex, BMI, and smoking status, with the addition of self-reported history of hypertension and measured blood pressure. RESULTS: The previously published model yielded well-calibrated probabilities and good discrimination (C-statistic [95% CI]: 0.699 [0.679-0.721]). Our model had slightly improved discrimination (0.714 [0.694-0.735], bootstrap optimism-corrected C-statistic: 0.709). Despite this good performance, predicted risk was low for the vast majority of participants, with 70% of participants having 10-year risk less than 0.0025. CONCLUSIONS: Although the models performed well for the prediction of incident RCC, they are currently insufficiently powerful to identify individuals at substantial risk of RCC in a general population. IMPACT: Despite the promising performance of the EPIC RCC risk prediction model, further development of the model, possibly including biomarkers of risk, is required to enable risk stratification of RCC.

Soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End-products (sRAGE) and Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Case-Control Study Nested within a European Prospective Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Overexpression of the receptor for advanced glycation end-product (RAGE) has been associated with chronic inflammation, which in turn has been associated with increased colorectal cancer risk. Soluble RAGE (sRAGE) competes with RAGE to bind its ligands, thus potentially preventing RAGE-induced inflammation. METHODS: To investigate whether sRAGE and related genetic variants are associated with colorectal cancer risk, we conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Plasma sRAGE concentrations were measured by ELISA in 1,361 colorectal cancer matched case-control sets. Twenty-four SNPs encoded in the genes associated with sRAGE concentrations were available for 1,985 colorectal cancer cases and 2,220 controls. Multivariable adjusted ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using conditional and unconditional logistic regression for colorectal cancer risk and circulating sRAGE and SNPs, respectively. RESULTS: Higher sRAGE concentrations were inversely associated with colorectal cancer (ORQ5vs.Q1, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59-1.00). Sex-specific analyses revealed that the observed inverse risk association was restricted to men (ORQ5vs.Q1, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.42-0.94), whereas no association was observed in women (ORQ5vs.Q1, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.68-1.48; P heterogeneity for sex = 0.006). Participants carrying minor allele of rs653765 (promoter region of ADAM10) had lower colorectal cancer risk (C vs. T, OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.82-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Prediagnostic sRAGE concentrations were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in men, but not in women. An SNP located within ADAM10 gene, pertaining to RAGE shedding, was associated with colorectal cancer risk. IMPACT: Further studies are needed to confirm our observed sex difference in the association and better explore the potential involvement of genetic variants of sRAGE in colorectal cancer development.

Ovarian Cancer Risk Factor Associations by Primary Anatomic Site: The Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancers have shared developmental pathways. Few studies have prospectively examined heterogeneity in risk factor associations across these three anatomic sites. METHODS: We identified 3,738 ovarian, 337 peritoneal, and 176 fallopian tube incident cancer cases in 891,731 women from 15 prospective cohorts in the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium. Associations between 18 putative risk factors and risk of ovarian, peritoneal, and fallopian tube cancer, overall and for serous and high-grade serous tumors, were evaluated using competing risks Cox proportional hazards regression. Heterogeneity was assessed by likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: Most associations did not vary by tumor site (P het ≥ 0.05). Associations between first pregnancy (P het = 0.04), tubal ligation (P het = 0.01), and early-adult (age 18-21 years) body mass index (BMI; P het = 0.02) and risk differed between ovarian and peritoneal cancers. The association between early-adult BMI and risk further differed between peritoneal and fallopian tube cancer (P het = 0.03). First pregnancy and tubal ligation were inversely associated with ovarian, but not peritoneal, cancer. Higher early-adult BMI was associated with higher risk of peritoneal, but not ovarian or fallopian tube, cancer. Patterns were generally similar when restricted to serous and high-grade serous cases. CONCLUSIONS: Ovarian, fallopian tube, and primary peritoneal cancers appear to have both shared and distinct etiologic pathways, although most risk factors appear to have similar associations by anatomic site. IMPACT: Further studies on the mechanisms underlying the differences in risk profiles may provide insights regarding the developmental origins of tumors arising in the peritoneal cavity and inform prevention efforts.

Dietary and Circulating Fatty Acids and Ovarian Cancer Risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Fatty acids impact obesity, estrogens, and inflammation, which are risk factors for ovarian cancer. Few epidemiologic studies have investigated the association of fatty acids with ovarian cancer. METHODS: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 1,486 incident ovarian cancer cases were identified. Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for ovarian cancer risk factors were used to estimate HRs of ovarian cancer across quintiles of intake of fatty acids. False discovery rate was computed to control for multiple testing. Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs of ovarian cancer across tertiles of plasma fatty acids among 633 cases and two matched controls in a nested case-control analysis. RESULTS: A positive association was found between ovarian cancer and intake of industrial trans elaidic acid [HR comparing fifth with first quintileQ5-Q1 = 1.29; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03-1.62; P trend = 0.02, q-value = 0.06]. Dietary intakes of n-6 linoleic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.10; 95% CI = 1.01-1.21; P trend = 0.03) and n-3 α-linolenic acid (HRQ5-Q1 = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.05-1.34; P trend = 0.007) from deep-frying fats were also positively associated with ovarian cancer. Suggestive associations were reported for circulating elaidic (OR comparing third with first tertileT3-T1 = 1.39; 95% CI = 0.99-1.94; P trend = 0.06) and α-linolenic acids (ORT3-T1 = 1.30; 95% CI = 0.98-1.72; P trend = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher intakes and circulating levels of industrial trans elaidic acid, and higher intakes of linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid from deep-frying fat, may be associated with greater risk of ovarian cancer. IMPACT: If causal, eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids could offer a straightforward public health action for reducing ovarian cancer risk.

Association of prediagnostic vitamin D status with mortality among colorectal cancer patients differs by common, inherited vitamin D-binding protein isoforms.

Lower prediagnostic circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D)-considered the best marker of total vitamin D exposure-is associated with higher mortality risk among colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. However, it is unknown whether this association differs by the vitamin D-binding protein (GC) isoform Gc2 (encoded by GC rs4588*C>A, Thr436Lys), which may substantially affect vitamin D metabolism and modify associations of 25(OH)D with colorectal neoplasm risk. Prediagnostic 25(OH)D-mortality associations according to Gc2 isoform were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression among 1281 CRC cases (635 deaths, 483 from CRC) from two large prospective cohorts conducted in the United States (Cancer Prevention Study-II) and Europe (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). 25(OH)D measurements were calibrated to a single assay, season standardized, and categorized using Institute of Medicine recommendations (deficient [<30], insufficient [30 - <50], sufficient [≥50 nmol/L]). In the pooled analysis, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CRC-specific mortality associated with deficient relative to sufficient 25(OH)D concentrations were 2.24 (95% CI 1.44-3.49) among cases with the Gc2 isoform, and 0.94 (95% CI 0.68-1.22) among cases without Gc2 (Pinteraction = .0002). The corresponding HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.80 (95% CI 1.24-2.60) among those with Gc2, and 1.12 (95% CI 0.84-1.51) among those without Gc2 (Pinteraction = .004). Our findings suggest that the association of prediagnostic vitamin D status with mortality among CRC patients may differ by functional GC isoforms, and patients who inherit the Gc2 isoform (GC rs4588*A) may particularly benefit from higher circulating 25(OH)D for improved CRC prognosis.