Survival analysis for a large-scale forest health issue: Missouri oak decline.

Survival analysis methodologies provide novel approaches for forest mortality analysis that may aid in detecting, monitoring, and mitigating of large-scale forest health issues. This study examined survivor analysis for evaluating a regional forest health issue - Missouri oak decline. With a statewide Missouri forest inventory, log-rank tests of the effects of covariates on the survivor function and equality of the survivor function among classes were conducted for selected oak species. Additionally, hazard functions were determined for diameter classes for damaged and undamaged oaks. Results indicate that mortality appears to vary significantly among some inventory classes such as oak species, but not among other classes such as ownership class. Indicators of individual tree vigor (i.e., crown class and ratio) were more significant predictors of oak tree mortality than site/stand attributes (i.e., density and aspect). Finally, results indicate that even fast-growing oak trees are at high risk of mortality if damaged by disease. Survival analyses, such as those applied in this study, may enable testing of forest health hypotheses using large-scale inventories. In the context of Missouri's oak forest decline, study results suggest management efforts should focus on limiting the spread of disease damage, increasing the vigor of residual trees, and emphasizing small trees when developing stand prescriptions.

Periodograms and pulse detection methods for pulsatile hormone data.

Pulse detection algorithms and spectral analysis are the two most common methods for analysing pulsatile hormone data. We compared a popular high quality pulse detection algorithm (CLUSTER) to spectral analysis on a data set comparing luteinizing hormone data in depressed and control women. For these data, periodogram analysis methods, in particular Fisher's periodicity test, were superior in distinguishing the groups. Extending the pulse detection method to include measures of intra-individual variability improved its discriminatory performance. The two methods complement each other.

Major depression in unexplained infertility.

Although a potential relationship between depression and infertility has been described throughout history, only recently has this topic been subjected to systematic investigation, and the literature is often confusing. The present study uses well-established structured psychiatric interviews--Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R (SCID), Beck and Family History-Research Diagnostic Criteria (Fh-RDC)--to investigate the prevalence of major depression in a small group of women with infertility of unknown origin, and a community control sample. There were significantly more women with current depression or a history of depression in the infertile group, and of these women the majority experienced their first depressive episode prior to their diagnosis of infertility.

Hypothalamic pituitary gonadal axis dysregulation in depressed women.

In order to examine HPG axis regulation in women with major depression, luteinizing hormone (LH) pulsativity was studied in 26 depressed and 24 normal women. Blood was sampled every 10 min for an 8-h period during the first week of their menstrual cycle. LH pulsatile release was analyzed using the computerized cluster analysis algorithm of Veldhuis and Johnson and spectral analysis. Compared to control women, depressed women had slower frequency dysrhythmic LH pulsatility. These results are consistent with a previously published pilot study which reported results of the first 23 subjects [Am. J. Psychiat. 154 (1997) 1454].

Obtaining event status at the close of the Treatment of Mild Hypertension Study: methods and implication for other trials.

The Treatment of Mild Hypertension Trial was a randomized, double-blind clinical trial conducted from 1986 to 1992 comparing the efficacy of six antihypertensive treatment regimens in 902 participants with stage I hypertension. To satisfy a secondary objective of the study, follow-up information on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity was collected. For this objective the aim was to ascertain the vital and cardiovascular event status as of the last day of the trial. This was accomplished by inviting each participant to attend a closeout visit shortly after the closeout date. In addition to serving as verification of vital status, this visit allowed data collection on nonfatal events that occurred between the last clinic visit and the closeout date. During this visit the patient was unblinded to study medication and given a medical summary of their participation during the trial, as well as a bottle of open-label medication. The advantages of a closeout visit are discussed along with a call for studies to provide clearer definitions of lost to follow-up and censoring times used in life-table analyses, especially when the primary event includes both fatal and nonfatal events. Control Clin Trials 2001;22:56-61

Effect of calcium supplementation on serum cholesterol and blood pressure. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: To test the effect of daily supplemental calcium on serum total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels and blood pressure in adults. DESIGN: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial; adjunct study to a trial of calcium and colon cell proliferation in patients with sporadic adenoma. SETTING: Outpatient clinic. PATIENTS: A total of 193 men and women, aged 30 to 74 years. INTERVENTION: Treatment with 1.0 and 2.0 g/d of elemental calcium vs placebo over a 4-month period for cholesterol determinations and 6 months for blood pressure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum total cholesterol and HDL-C levels, systolic and diastolic blood pressure. RESULTS: Because there were no apparent differences in responses between the 1.0-g and 2.0-g calcium groups, their data were combined and compared with those of the placebo group. Among all participants, the mean total cholesterol level dropped 0.07 mmol/L (2.9 mg/dL) (1.3%) (P = .43) more, and the mean HDL-C level dropped 0.01 mmol/L (0.4 mg/dL) (1.1%) (P = .71) less in the calcium group than in the placebo group. Among participants without a history of hypercholesterolemia, the mean total cholesterol level dropped 0.18 mmol/L (6.8 mg/dL) (3.3%) (P = .10) and the HDL-C level dropped 0.02 mmol/L (0.6 mg/dL) (1.5%) (P = .61) more in the calcium group than in the placebo group. Among all participants, there was no apparent change in blood pressure until 6 months, when the mean systolic blood pressure dropped 0.8 mm Hg (0.6%) (P = .85) and the mean diastolic blood pressure dropped 0.4 mm Hg (0.5%) (P = .80) more in the calcium group than in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: There were no substantial or statistically significant effects of calcium supplementation on total cholesterol or HDL-C levels or on blood pressure. There was a suggestion (not statistically significant) of a 0.07 to 0.18 mmol/L (3-7 mg/dL) or 2% to 4% drop in the total cholesterol level, a finding similar to that reported in other studies, which indicates the need for further study.

Colorectal adenomatous and hyperplastic polyps: smoking and N-acetyltransferase 2 polymorphisms.

Arylamine N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) is involved in both the detoxification and bioactivation of carcinogenic arylamines and other mutagens. This enzyme is polymorphic, and the fast and slow phenotypes are thought to be risk factors for colon and bladder cancer, respectively. Here, we report on a case-control study of adenomatous and hyperplastic polyps, with particular attention to tobacco smoking, a known risk factor for adenomas, and polymorphisms of NAT2. All participants underwent complete colonoscopy and were subsequently divided into case and control groups on the basis of pathology. Cases were diagnosed with confirmed adenomas (n = 527) or hyperplastic polyps (n = 200); controls (n = 633) had no history of colonic neoplasia and no polyps at colonoscopy. NAT2 genotype was determined using an oligonucleotide ligation assay and fast, intermediate, or slow phenotype imputed. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were computed using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and hormone replacement therapy use. Smoking was associated with an increased risk of adenomas [current versus never smoking OR = 2.0 (95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.9)] and hyperplastic polyps [current versus never smoking OR = 4.1 (2.6-6.5)]. NAT2 status among adenomatous polyp patients and hyperplastic polyp patients, respectively, showed ORs of 1.1 (0.8-1.4) and 1.2 (0.8-1.6; intermediate versus slow) and 1.1 (0.6-1.9) and 0.9 (0.4-1.9; fast versus slow). There were no differences in risk when adenoma patients were stratified on multiplicity, size, or histopathological subtype of polyps. Never-smokers showed no variation in risk across acetylator status for either species of polyp, whereas current smokers showed ORs of 2.0 (1.2-3.2) and 2.3 (1.4-3.9) for adenomas and 3.9 (2.1-7.1) and 4.9 (2.6-9.4) for hyperplastic polyps for slow and intermediate/fast NAT2, respectively, compared with slow-NAT2 never-smokers. Risks of both multiple [OR = 4.3 (2.1-8.8)] and large [OR = 3.8 (1.9-7.5)] adenomas were somewhat elevated in current smokers with an intermediate/fast phenotype compared with smokers with a slow NAT2 phenotype, but the interaction was not statistically significant. Risk of hyperplastic polyps and adenomatous polyps is strongly related to smoking. There is little suggestion of interaction between NAT2 status and smoking and no relationship with NAT2 genotype alone.

Rationale and design for the Controlled ONset Verapamil INvestigation of Cardiovascular Endpoints (CONVINCE) Trial.

The Controlled ONset Verapamil INvestigation of Cardiovascular Endpoints (CONVINCE) Trial is a randomized, prospective, double-blind, parallel-group, two-arm, actively controlled, multicenter, international 5-year clinical trial involving 15,000 patients. CONVINCE will compare the incidence of fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), fatal or nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular-disease-related death in two antihypertensive treatment regimens. One treatment arm begins with controlled onset-extended release (COER)-verapamil, which has its major antihypertensive effect 6-12 hours after administration. The other arm (standard of care (SOC)) begins with either hydrochlorothiazide (HCTZ) or atenolol, one of which is preselected by the investigator for an individual patient prior to randomization. Secondary objectives include comparisons of the regimens for each of the components of the primary endpoint (separately), death or hospitalization related to cardiovascular disease, efficacy in lowering blood pressure to goal, primary events occurring between 6 am and noon, all-cause mortality, withdrawals from blinded therapy, cancer, and hospitalizations due to bleeding. Patients may be enrolled if they are hypertensive and at least 55 years of age and have an established second risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Initial medications include COER-verapamil (180 mg/d), HCTZ (12.5 mg/d), or atenolol (50 mg/d). Initial doses are doubled if blood pressure (BP) does not reach goal (systolic BP < 140 mm and diastolic BP < 90 mm Hg). If BP is not controlled by the higher dose of the initial medication, HCTZ is added to COER-verapamil, or the SOC choice not initially selected is added in the SOC arm. An ACE-inhibitor is recommended (although nearly any open-label medication is allowed) as the third step for patients whose BP is not adequately controlled or who have a contraindication to one of the two SOC medications. Patients take two sets of tablets daily, one in the morning and one in the evening. Although most patients switch from an established antihypertensive medication to randomized treatment, untreated patients with stages I-III hypertension (SBP between 140 and 190 or DBP between 90 and 110 mm Hg) are eligible. Outcomes are monitored by an independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board. Enrollment began during the third quarter of 1996, and follow-up is to be completed in the third quarter of 2002.

Methodological findings and considerations in measuring colorectal epithelial cell proliferation in humans.

The methodological issues for measuring colorectal epithelial cell proliferation, an intermediate end point for studies of colon neoplasia, in epidemiological studies are deceptively numerous and complex, with few methodological data available. Accordingly, during our experience with measuring colorectal epithelial cell proliferation from nearly 500 participants attending over 1300 study visits over a 6-year period, we recorded data on a variety of measurement variations. Methods investigated included rectal biopsy technique, general histological and labeling procedures [including the tritiated thymidine, 5-bromodeoxyuridine (BrdUrd), and the proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) immunohistochemical techniques used to label S-phase cells in colonic crypts in rectal biopsy specimens], biopsy scoring procedures, and summary scoring methods. Findings include that the PCNA technique was the simplest, most economical, and least time-consuming. The BrdUrd labeling failure rate was 15% versus < 1% for PCNA. The percentage of labeled cells (labeling index) was highest using PCNA in biopsies processed without prior incubation, intermediate using PCNA in biopsies processed with prior incubation as for BrdUrd, and lowest using BrdUrd. The percentage of labeled cells that were in the upper 40% of the crypt (phi h) was higher using BrdUrd than PCNA; visit-to-visit correlations were higher using PCNA (r = 0.51 versus 0.35), and visit-to-visit variability was lower and between-person variability was higher using PCNA. Intra- and inter-rater reliabilities for the techniques were comparable (PCNA intra-rater r = 0.93, inter-rater r = 0.92). The PCNA technique, compared to the BrdUrd technique, is more feasible and reliable, provides a more accurate estimate of the labeling index, and cell proliferation measures determined with PCNA have statistical properties that are generally more favorable for detecting differences in clinical trials. Thus, the PCNA technique may be preferable to techniques requiring incubation of biopsies. Other methodological findings lead us to recommend that, for larger studies measuring colorectal epithelial cell proliferation on outpatient rectal biopsies, biopsies should be taken 10 cm above the anus using a flexible, preferably jumbo cup, endoscopic forceps through a rigid sigmoidoscope, and histological sections should be 3 microns thick taken 50 microns apart.

Colorectal epithelial cell proliferative kinetics and risk factors for colon cancer in sporadic adenoma patients.

Colorectal epithelial cell proliferative kinetics are altered in patients at increased risk for colon cancer: proliferation rates [labeling index (LI)] are higher and there is a shift of the proliferative zone from one confined to the lower 60% of the colonic crypt to one that includes the entire crypt (higher phi(h)). To assess factors associated with LI and phi(h), we performed a cross-sectional analysis using baseline rectal mucosal biopsies from sporadic adenoma patients participating in a chemoprevention trial. Biopsies (taken without preparatory cleansing) were taken 10 cm above the level of the anus, and proliferation was assessed by detection of endogenous S-phase-associated proliferating cell nuclear antigen by immunohistochemical methods. High-quality, scorable biopsies were obtained for 115 patients, and using analysis of covariance and multiple linear regression, the LI and phi(h) were evaluated in relation to diet and other lifestyle factors, demographics, anthropometrics, family history of colon cancer, and polyp history. Statistically significant findings included the following: (a) The LI for those in the upper versus the lowest tertile of vegetable and fruit consumption was, proportionately, 35% lower (3.4% versus 5.3%; P < 0.001); for vitamin supplement users versus nonusers, it was 36% lower (3.3 versus 5.2%; P < 0.001); for recurrent versus incident polyp patients, it was 36% higher (6.2 versus 4.0%; P < 0.001); and for those with rectal polyps only versus those with colon polyps only, it was 28% higher (6.0 versus 4.3%; P = 0.05); and (b) the phi(h) for those in the upper versus the lowest tertile of sucrose consumption was, proportionately, 48% higher (7.1% versus 3.7%; P = 0.01). These results indicate that (a) colorectal epithelial cell proliferation rates are higher in recurrent adenoma patients than in incident adenoma patients and in patients with rectal adenomas only versus those with colon adenomas only, but they are lower in patients with higher intakes of vegetables and fruit and in those who take vitamin/mineral supplements, and (b) the distribution of proliferating cells is shifted toward more inclusion of the upper 40% of the crypt in patients with higher intakes of sucrose. The pattern of positive, negative, and null associations of potential risk factors with cell proliferation is similar to that commonly found with colonic neoplasms.

Hormone replacement therapy is associated with lower risk of adenomatous polyps of the large bowel: the Minnesota Cancer Prevention Research Unit Case-Control Study.

Evidence of a role for steroid hormones and reproduction in colon neoplasia remains tantalizing but unclear. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been reported in a number of recent studies to be associated with a reduced risk of colon cancer. A case-control study was undertaken to establish whether HRT is associated with lower risk of adenomatous polyps. This case-control study was undertaken as a project of the Minnesota Cancer Prevention Research Unit. Cases (n = 219) were women, ages 30-74 years with colonoscopy-proven, pathology-confirmed, adenomatous polyps of colon and rectum recruited at Digestive Healthcare PA (Minneapolis, MN). Two control groups were selected: women without polyps at colonoscopy (n = 438) at Digestive Healthcare and age- and zip code-matched women selected from the general community (n = 247). Response rates were 68% among those colonoscoped and 65% among community controls. Parity, age at first live birth, and oral contraceptive use did not distinguish cases from either control group. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence limits for use of HRT for less than 5 years (compared with never use) among postmenopausal women were 0.52 (0.32-0.85) versus colonoscopy-negative controls and 0.74 (0.44-1.26) versus community controls. For 5 years of use or greater, the corresponding figures were 0.39 (0.23-0.67) and 0.61 (0.34-1.07). These results were not materially different when stratified on body mass index, oophorectomy, hysterectomy, aspirin use, or family history. There is no marked increase in risk even 5 years after cessation of HRT use. HRT appears to lower risk of colorectal adenomatous polyps, suggesting that it acts quite early in the neoplastic process. Mechanisms remain unclear. Reduction of risk of colorectal neoplasia is an additional benefit of postmenopausal HRT.

Diagnostic plots to reveal functional form for covariates in multiplicative intensity models.

We show how plots based on the residuals from a proportional hazards model may be used to reveal the correct functional form for covariates in the model. A smoothed plot of the martingale residues was suggested for this purpose by Therneau, Grambsch, and Fleming (1990, Biometrika 77, 147-160); however, its consistency required that the covariates be independent. They also noted that the plot could be biased for large covariate effects. We introduce two refinements which overcome these difficulties. The first is based on a ratio of scatter plot smooths, where the numerator is the smooth of the observed count plotted against the covariate, and the denominator is a smooth of the expected count. This is related to the Arjas goodness-of-fit plot (1988, Journal of the American Statistical Association 83, 204-212). The second technique smooths the martingale residuals divided by the expected count, using expected count as a weight. This latter approach is related to a GLM partial residual plot, as well as to the iterative methods of Hastie and Tibshirani (1990, Biometrics 46, 1005-1016) and Gentleman and Crowley (1991, Biometrics 47, 1283-1296). Applications to survival data sets are given.

Calcium and colorectal epithelial cell proliferation in sporadic adenoma patients: a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The kinetics of colorectal epithelial cell proliferation is altered in patients at increased risk for colon cancer. Calcium administration ameliorates such proliferative changes in rodents. Findings in preliminary clinical trials have suggested similar effects in humans. PURPOSE: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial was designed to determine whether calcium supplementation will reduce the colorectal epithelial cell proliferation rate and normalize the distribution of proliferating cells within colorectal crypts (i.e., shift the zone of proliferation from the entire crypt to the lower 60% of the crypt, which is thought to be the normal proliferative zone of the crypt) in patients with sporadic adenomas. METHODS: Sporadic adenoma patients (n = 193) were treated with placebo (n = 66), 1.0 g calcium (n = 64), or 2.0 g calcium (n = 63) daily for 6 months. Rectal mucosa biopsy specimens were obtained at base line and at 1-, 2-, and 6-month follow-up. Cell proliferation was measured by detection of S-phase-associated proliferating cell nuclear antigen by immunohistochemical methods. The cell proliferation rate, called labeling index (LI), was calculated as the proportion of labeled cells in the crypts. The deviation of the proliferative zone from the normal location in the lower 60% of the crypt was calculated as the proportion of labeled cells in the upper 40% of the crypt, called distributional index (phi h). The effects of calcium treatment on the LI and phi h were expressed as relative effects--(calcium follow-up/calcium base line)/(placebo follow-up/placebo base line). Calculations and inference testing of the relative effects were accomplished using a repeated-measures mixed model on log-transformed LI and phi h values. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Scorable biopsy specimens were obtained on 170 patients at base line, 164 at 1 month, 161 at 2 months, and 163 at 6 months. The difference in the change in the LI between the combined calcium groups and the placebo group was insignificant, with a relative effect of calcium versus placebo of 0.97 (P = .87). However, for the phi h, the relative effect of calcium versus placebo was 0.50 (P = .05) in the combined calcium groups, 0.56 (P = .16) in the 1.0-g calcium group, and 0.44 (P = .05) in the 2.0-g calcium group. CONCLUSIONS: Calcium supplementation normalizes the distribution of proliferating cells without affecting the proliferation rate in the colorectal mucosa of sporadic adenoma patients. IMPLICATIONS: These results support further study of whether alterations in colon cell proliferative kinetics represent true intermediate steps in colon carcinogenesis that can be used to investigate the etiology and prevention of, and whether a higher calcium consumption can reduce the risk of, colon cancer.

Statistical analysis of proliferative index data in clinical trials.

Measurements of proliferative activity in colonic epithelial cells are being used as surrogate endpoints in clinical trials for colon cancer prevention. Proliferative index data exemplify an important type of clinical trial endpoint. The outcome variable is a proportion in which the denominator is an ancillary statistic and in which measurement error and technician judgement are important sources of variability. The paper proposes a statistical model for a repeated measures clinical trial with this type of endpoint, in the context of proliferative activity data. The model is a two-stage random effects linear model in the log scale. In addition to fixed effects covariates, it explicitly incorporates two major sources of variability: the number of epithelial cells counted and the reader effect. Although the resulting likelihood is complicated, one can fit an approximate likelihood with minimal loss of efficiency using standard packages. We apply the model to a pilot randomized clinical trial.

Primary biliary cirrhosis: prediction of short-term survival based on repeated patient visits.

The progression of primary biliary cirrhosis was studied in 312 patients who were seen at the Mayo Clinic between January 1974 and May 1984. Follow-up was extended to April 30, 1988, by which time 140 of the patients had died and 29 had undergone orthotopic liver transplantation. These patients generated 1,945 patient visits that enabled us to study the change in the prognostic variables of primary biliary cirrhosis (age, bilirubin value, albumin value, prothrombin time and edema) from the time of referral. Also, using this database and the Cox proportional-hazards regression model, we developed an updated model for primary biliary cirrhosis that can be used to predict short-term survival at any time in the course of the disease. This model uses the values of the prognostic variables measured at the latest patient visit. Comparison of predicted survival from the update model and the natural history model of primary biliary cirrhosis showed that the updated model was superior to the original model for predicting short-term survival. This finding applied to both the Mayo Clinic patients and an independent set of 83 Dutch patients. The Mayo updated model is recommended for improving the accuracy of predictions of survival during the 2 yr after a patient visit.

Piecewise exponential survival curves with smooth transitions.

Several models of a population survival curve composed of two piecewise exponential distributions are developed. In one formulation the hazard rate changes at a point that is an unobservable random variable that varies between individuals. The population hazard function may decrease with age even when all individuals' hazards are increasing. In a second formulation, the population hazard function is modeled directly. Several models are fit to the survival history of a cohort of 5751 highly inbred male Drosophila melanogaster and the British coal mining disaster data.

Association between survival time and ordinal covariates.

An application of the method of rank correlation is proposed for testing independence between a censored survival time and an ordinal covariate. The test statistic counts the number of concordances minus the number of discordances at each time with event(s) and adds across times; it is expressible as a score statistic within the proportional hazards framework. The proposed test includes, as a special case, a generalization of Jonckheere's test against ordered alternatives and as applied to the analysis of categorical data, it can be seen as a generalization of the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.

Calcium and colorectal epithelial cell proliferation: a preliminary randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Colonic epithelial cell proliferation is increased in patients at high risk for colon cancer. Calcium administration has ameliorated the proliferative changes in rodents, and findings in small, uncontrolled clinical trials have suggested similar effects in humans. PURPOSE: This preliminary, double-blind, randomized clinical trial was designed 1) to investigate whether supplemental calcium will reduce colonic epithelial cell proliferation in patients with sporadic adenomas who consume a high-fat, Western-style diet; 2) to determine the sample size (number of scorable crypts per person) needed to achieve adequate statistical power; and 3) to evaluate the feasibility of full-scale clinical trials. METHODS: Twenty-one sporadic adenoma patients were treated daily with placebo or 1200 mg of supplemental calcium. To determine colonic epithelial cell proliferation, we used tritiated thymidine labeling of colon crypt epithelial cells in rectal biopsy specimens and calculated the percentage of labeled cells (labeling index [LI]). Two pathology technician "readers" independently scored each specimen, and inter-reader reliability was determined. Subjects remained on their usual diet during the study, and intake of calories, calcium, total fat, and vitamin D did not differ substantially among them. We calculated curves for statistical power to determine the number of scorable crypts needed per person for detection of a statistically significant difference (P < .05) of 1.0% in mean LI. RESULTS: The pooled baseline LI was 4.7%. In the calcium-treated group, the LI increased 0.6% (proportional increase, 12.8%); in the placebo-treated group, it decreased 0.5% (proportional decrease, 10.6%). The difference between change in the mean LI from baseline to 8 weeks' follow-up in the placebo group versus the calcium group was not statistically significant. The intraclass correlation coefficient for inter-reader reliability for the baseline LI was .66. Analyses indicated scoring eight crypts sufficient for estimates of the LI adequate for between-group comparisons, a level achieved in 81% of biopsy specimens. CONCLUSIONS: Calcium carbonate supplements delivering 1200 mg elemental calcium daily may not decrease colonic epithelial cell proliferation over an 8-week period in sporadic adenoma patients. In future trials measuring the LI, consideration should be given to ensuring adequate numbers of scorable crypts and to the impact of inadequate biopsy procedures, labeling failure, reader reliability, and participant withdrawal. Our findings support the feasibility of a full-scale clinical trial to further study the relationships among dietary calcium, colonic epithelial cell proliferation, and colorectal cancer.

Primary sclerosing cholangitis: refinement and validation of survival models.

The natural history of primary sclerosing cholangitis was studied in 426 patients from five medical centers. The median follow-up time was 3.0 years (range, 0.01-16.6 years); 100 patients had died by the time of last follow-up. Survival analysis (Cox proportional-hazards regression) was used to identify the variables most useful in predicting survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. Serum bilirubin concentration, histological stage on liver biopsy, age, and the presence of splenomegaly were independent predictors of a high risk of dying. A mathematical model to predict survival of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (based on referral values of those predictors) was statistically validated using two methods. Confidence intervals for predicting patient-specific survival probabilities are also presented. This model to predict survival could be used to stratify participants in therapeutic trials, counsel patients and their families, decide on candidacy for and timing of liver transplantation, and provide mathematical controls for evaluating the efficacy of therapies for primary sclerosing cholangitis, including transplantation.