Influence of social determinants of health and county vaccination rates on machine learning models to predict COVID-19 case growth in Tennessee.

INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed health disparities throughout the USA, particularly among racial and ethnic minorities. As a result, there is a need for data-driven approaches to pinpoint the unique constellation of clinical and social determinants of health (SDOH) risk factors that give rise to poor patient outcomes following infection in US communities. METHODS: We combined county-level COVID-19 testing data, COVID-19 vaccination rates and SDOH information in Tennessee. Between February and May 2021, we trained machine learning models on a semimonthly basis using these datasets to predict COVID-19 incidence in Tennessee counties. We then analyzed SDOH data features at each time point to rank the impact of each feature on model performance. RESULTS: Our results indicate that COVID-19 vaccination rates play a crucial role in determining future COVID-19 disease risk. Beginning in mid-March 2021, higher vaccination rates significantly correlated with lower COVID-19 case growth predictions. Further, as the relative importance of COVID-19 vaccination data features grew, demographic SDOH features such as age, race and ethnicity decreased while the impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors, including access to healthcare and transportation, increased. CONCLUSION: Incorporating a data framework to track the evolving patterns of community-level SDOH risk factors could provide policy-makers with additional data resources to improve health equity and resilience to future public health emergencies.

Predictive modeling of COVID-19 case growth highlights evolving racial and ethnic risk factors in Tennessee and Georgia.

INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has exposed the need to understand the risk drivers that contribute to uneven morbidity and mortality in US communities. Addressing the community-specific social determinants of health (SDOH) that correlate with spread of SARS-CoV-2 provides an opportunity for targeted public health intervention to promote greater resilience to viral respiratory infections. METHODS: Our work combined publicly available COVID-19 statistics with county-level SDOH information. Machine learning models were trained to predict COVID-19 case growth and understand the social, physical and environmental risk factors associated with higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Tennessee and Georgia counties. Model accuracy was assessed comparing predicted case counts to actual positive case counts in each county. RESULTS: The predictive models achieved a mean R2 of 0.998 in both states with accuracy above 90% for all time points examined. Using these models, we tracked the importance of SDOH data features over time to uncover the specific racial demographic characteristics strongly associated with COVID-19 incidence in Tennessee and Georgia counties. Our results point to dynamic racial trends in both states over time and varying, localized patterns of risk among counties within the same state. For example, we find that African American and Asian racial demographics present comparable, and contrasting, patterns of risk depending on locality. CONCLUSION: The dichotomy of demographic trends presented here emphasizes the importance of understanding the unique factors that influence COVID-19 incidence. Identifying these specific risk factors tied to COVID-19 case growth can help stakeholders target regional interventions to mitigate the burden of future outbreaks.

Predictive Modeling of COVID-19 Case Growth Highlights Evolving Demographic Risk Factors in Tennessee and Georgia.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the need to understand the unique risk drivers that contribute to uneven morbidity and mortality in US communities. Addressing the community-specific social determinants of health that correlate with spread of SARS-CoV-2 provides an opportunity for targeted public health intervention to promote greater resilience to viral respiratory infections in the future. Our work combined publicly available COVID-19 statistics with county-level social determinants of health information. Machine learning models were trained to predict COVID-19 case growth and understand the unique social, physical and environmental risk factors associated with higher rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Tennessee and Georgia counties. Model accuracy was assessed comparing predicted case counts to actual positive case counts in each county. The predictive models achieved a mean r-squared (R2) of 0.998 in both states with accuracy above 90% for all time points examined. Using these models, we tracked the social determinants of health, with a specific focus on demographics, that were strongly associated with COVID-19 case growth in Tennessee and Georgia counties. The demographic results point to dynamic racial trends in both states over time and varying, localized patterns of risk among counties within the same state. Identifying the specific risk factors tied to COVID-19 case growth can assist public health officials and policymakers target regional interventions to mitigate the burden of future outbreaks and minimize long-term consequences including emergence or exacerbation of chronic diseases that are a direct consequence of infection.

Illuminating an Invisible Epidemic: A Systemic Review of the Clinical and Economic Benefits of Early Diagnosis and Treatment in Inflammatory Disease and Related Syndromes.

Healthcare expenditures in the United States are growing at an alarming level with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) projecting that they will reach $5.7 trillion per year by 2026. Inflammatory diseases and related syndromes are growing in prevalence among Western societies. This growing population that affects close to 60 million people in the U.S. places a significant burden on the healthcare system. Characterized by relatively slow development, these diseases and syndromes prove challenging to diagnose, leading to delayed treatment against the backdrop of inevitable disability progression. Patients require healthcare attention but are initially hidden from clinician's view by the seemingly generalized, non-specific symptoms. It is imperative to identify and manage these underlying conditions to slow disease progression and reduce the likelihood that costly comorbidities will develop. Enhanced diagnostic criteria coupled with additional technological innovation to identify inflammatory conditions earlier is necessary and in the best interest of all healthcare stakeholders. The current total cost to the U.S. healthcare system is at least $90B dollars annually. Through unique analysis of financial cost drivers, this review identifies opportunities to improve clinical outcomes and help control these disease-related costs by 20% or more.