An agent-based model of the spread of behavioural risk-factors for cardiovascular disease in city-scale populations.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality globally, and is the second main cause of mortality in the UK. Four key modifiable behaviours are known to increase CVD risk, namely: tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity and harmful use of alcohol. Behaviours that increase the risk of CVD can spread through social networks because individuals consciously and unconsciously mimic the behaviour of others they relate to and admire. Exploiting these social influences may lead to effective and efficient public health interventions to prevent CVD. This project aimed to construct and validate an agent-based model (ABM) of how the four major behavioural risk-factors for CVD spread through social networks in a population, and examine whether the model could be used to identify targets for public health intervention and to test intervention strategies. Previous ABMs have typically focused on a single risk factor or considered very small populations. We created a city-scale ABM to model the behavioural risk-factors of individuals, their social networks (spousal, household, friendship and workplace), the spread of behaviours through these social networks, and the subsequent impact on the development of CVD. We compared the model output (predicted CVD events over a ten year period) to observed data, demonstrating that the model output is realistic. The model output is stable up to at least a population size of 1.2M agents (the maximum tested). We found that there is scope for the modelled interventions targeting the spread of these behaviours to change the number of CVD events experienced by the agents over ten years. Specifically, we modelled the impact of workplace interventions to show that the ABM could be useful for identifying targets for public health intervention. The model itself is Open Source and is available for use or extension by other researchers.

Integrating environmental DNA monitoring to inform eel (Anguilla anguilla) status in freshwaters at their easternmost range-A case study in Cyprus.

Despite significant population declines and targeted European Union regulations aimed at Anguilla anguilla conservation, little attention has been given to their status at their easternmost range. This study applies wide-scale integrated monitoring to uncover the present-day eel distribution in Cyprus' inland freshwaters. These are subject to increasing pressures from water supply requirements and dam construction, as seen throughout the Mediterranean. We applied environmental DNA metabarcoding of water samples to determine A. anguilla distribution in key freshwater catchments. In addition, we present this alongside 10 years of electrofishing/netting data. Refuge traps were also deployed to establish the timing of glass eel recruitment. These outputs are used together, alongside knowledge of the overall fish community and barriers to connectivity, to provide eel conservation and policy insights. This study confirm the presence of A. anguilla in Cyprus' inland freshwaters, with recruitment occurring in March. Eel distribution is restricted to lower elevation areas, and is negatively associated with distance from coast and barriers to connectivity. Many barriers to connectivity are identified, though eels were detected in two reservoirs upstream of dams. The overall fish community varies between freshwater habitat types. Eels are much more widespread in Cyprus than previously thought, yet mostly restricted to lowland intermittent systems. These findings make a case to reconsider the requirement for eel management plans. Environmental DNA-based data collected in 2020 indicate that "present-day" eel distribution is representative of 10-year survey trends. Suggesting that inland freshwaters may act as an unrealized refuge at A. anguilla's easternmost range. Conservation efforts in Mediterranean freshwaters should focus on improving connectivity, therefore enabling eels to access inland perennial refugia. Thus, mitigating the impact of climate change and the growing number of fragmented artificially intermittent river systems.

Influence of traffic context and information presentation on evaluation of autonomous highway journeys.

Previous research into perceptions of autonomous vehicles has largely focused on a priori attitudes, with little work on the perception of specific traffic situations, context and driving styles. The present study used three simulator experiments (total N = 150) to examine the combined effects of vehicle speed, lane position, information presentation and traffic context on occupants' levels of satisfaction with autonomous highway journeys. Overall, occupants preferred being in a vehicle that was mostly overtaking compared to being overtaken, regardless of whether the overtaking vehicles were exceeding the speed limit. This finding remained even when occupants were given additional reminders that they themselves were travelling at an appropriate speed (Experiments 1 & 2). Experiment 3 found that occupants preferred overtaking to being overtaken when following another car, but this preference disappeared when they were following a lorry, suggesting that occupants' sensitivity to position amongst the traffic was partially context dependent. Overall, the findings suggest that journey satisfaction is sensitive to overtaking contexts and the inappropriate behaviour of other drivers (e.g., speeding) can reduce journey satisfaction for occupants in autonomous vehicles that drive within the speed limit, depending on the specific traffic situation. Potential implications for the integration of autonomous vehicles with other traffic and the need for in-vehicle presentation of information are discussed.

Environmental DNA metabarcoding provides enhanced detection of the European eel Anguilla anguilla and fish community structure in pumped river catchments.

The European eel Anguilla anguilla (eel hereafter) is critically endangered and has a catadromous life cycle, which means adult eels that live in pumped catchments must pass through pumps during their downstream spawning migration. Policy makers are currently lacking detailed site-by-site eel distribution information to estimate the overall impact of individual pumping stations on eel escapement, and as such lack the data to enable informed prioritisation of pumping station management and targeted mitigation. This study investigated whether environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding can provide increased detection sensitivity for eel and fish community structure in highly regulated pumped catchments, when compared directly to current standard practice fish survey protocols (seine netting/electric fishing). Eels were detected in 14 of 17 sites (82.4%) using eDNA metabarcoding in contrast to 3 of 17 sites (17.6%) using traditional catch methods. In addition, when using eDNA monitoring, species richness was higher in 16 of 17 sites (94.1%), and site occupancy was greater than or equal to traditional methods for 23 of 26 of the fish species detected (88.5%). Although eDNA methods presented significantly higher average species richness and species site occupancy overall, eDNA and catch methods were positively correlated in terms of species richness and site occupancy. It was therefore found that eDNA metabarcoding was a high-sensitivity method for detecting eels in pumped catchments while also increasing the detection of overall fish community structure compared to traditional catch methods. In addition, this study highlights how eDNA monitoring is especially suited to increase the detection of particular species, with traditional methods sufficient for others. This high sensitivity, coupled with the ability to sample multiple sites in a short time frame, suggests that eDNA metabarcoding workflows could be invaluable tools when prioritising pumping station management.

Manipulating concept spread using concept relationships.

The propagation of concepts in a population of agents is a form of influence spread, which can be modelled as a cascade from a set of initially activated individuals. The study of such influence cascades, in particular the identification of influential individuals, has a wide range of applications including epidemic control, viral marketing and the study of social norms. In real-world environments there may be many concepts spreading and interacting. These interactions can affect the spread of a given concept, either boosting it and allowing it to spread further, or inhibiting it and limiting its capability to spread. Previous work does not consider how the interactions between concepts affect concept spread. Taking concept interactions into consideration allows for indirect concept manipulation, meaning that we can affect concepts we are not able to directly control. In this paper, we consider the problem of indirect concept manipulation, and propose heuristics for indirectly boosting or inhibiting concept spread in environments where concepts interact. We define a framework that allows for the interactions between any number of concepts to be represented, and present a heuristic that aims to identify important influence paths for a given target concept in order to manipulate its spread. We compare the performance of this heuristic, called maximum probable gain, against established heuristics for manipulating influence spread.

Negotiating the Traffic: Can Cognitive Science Help Make Autonomous Vehicles a Reality?

To drive safely among human drivers, cyclists and pedestrians, autonomous vehicles will need to mimic, or ideally improve upon, humanlike driving. Yet, driving presents us with difficult problems of joint action: 'negotiating' with other users over shared road space. We argue that autonomous driving provides a test case for computational theories of social interaction, with fundamental implications for the development of autonomous vehicles.

A vision for children. Interview by Anita Pati.

The opening of a paediatric assessment and decision area (Panda) unit at Salford A&E means sick children and their families do not have to be transfered to other hospitals for treatment.