Microplastics pollution in the rivers of a metropolitan city and its estimated dependency on surrounding developed land.

The spatial distribution and abundance of suspected microplastics (SMPs) in the surface water of a metropolitan city, as represented by four Hong Kong rivers, was studied during the dry season. Shing Mun River (SM), Lam Tsuen River (LT), and Tuen Mun River (TM) are located in urbanized areas, and SM and TM are tidal rivers. The fourth river, Silver River (SR) is situated in a rural area. TM had a significantly higher SMP abundance (53.80 ± 20.67 n/L) than the other rivers. The SMP abundance increased from upstream to downstream in non-tidal rivers (LT and SR), but not in tidal rivers (TM and SM), probably due to the tidal influence and a more homogeneous urban development along the tidal rivers. Inter-site differences in the SMP abundance were strongly correlated with the built area ratio (defined as the percentage of surrounding developed land area), human activities, and the nature of the river. About half (48.72 %) of the SMPs were <250 µm. Fibers and fragments were most abundant (>98 %), with most of them being transparent (58.54 %), black (14.68 %), or blue (12.12 %). Polyethylene terephthalate (26.96 %) and polyethylene (20.70 %) were the most common polymers. However, the MP abundance could be overestimated due to the presence of natural fibers. By contrast, an underestimation of the MP abundance could result from a smaller volume of water samples collected, due to a low filtration efficiency caused by high organic content and particle concentrations in the water. A more effective solid waste management strategy and upgrading of the sewage treatment facilities for removing microplastics are recommended to ameliorate the microplastic pollution in local rivers.

Estimating cetacean population trends from static acoustic monitoring data using Paired Year Ratio Assessment (PYRA).

The cetacean conservationist is often faced with evaluating population trends from abundance data that are either sparse or recorded at different times in different years. The presence of diel or seasonal patterns in the data together with unplanned gaps is often problematic. Such data are typical of those obtained from static acoustic monitoring. We present a simple and transparent non-parametric trend evaluation method, 'Paired Year Ratio Assessment (PYRA)' that uses only whole days of data wherever they are present in each of successive pairs of periods of 365 days. We provide a quantitative comparison of the performance of PYRA with traditional generalised additive models (GAMS) and nonparametric randomisation tests that require a greater level of skill and experience for both application and interpretation. We conclude that PYRA is a powerful tool, particularly in the context of identifying population trends which is often the main aim of conservation-targeted acoustic monitoring.

A geostatistical approach to joint stakeholder prioritization for tackling marine plastics pollution in Hong Kong.

The pressing need to solve marine plastics pollution as a multi-source and multi-stakeholder problem is an ongoing global issue. This presents a challenge to policy makers tasked with understanding and accommodating different stakeholder perceptions and weighting their alternative propositions for solutions. In the case of Hong Kong, pollution of the marine environment by discarded plastics, polystyrenes and other items is a cumulative and accelerating problem that has yet to be resolved. We demonstrate how a geostatistical mapping approach can achieve joint stakeholder prioritization at any such regional scale. Joint prioritized area mapping is a methodology that links perspectives of otherwise disparate stakeholders to ecosystem-based-management, thereby balancing ecological, socio-economic and governance principles across temporal and spatial scales. It can serve as a generic scoping tool to help assess any marine spatial planning problem.

Optimal health and disease management using spatial uncertainty: a geographic characterization of emergent artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum distributions in Southeast Asia.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites are now present across much of mainland Southeast Asia, where ongoing surveys are measuring and mapping their spatial distribution. These efforts require substantial resources. Here we propose a generic 'smart surveillance' methodology to identify optimal candidate sites for future sampling and thus map the distribution of artemisinin resistance most efficiently. METHODS: The approach uses the 'uncertainty' map generated iteratively by a geostatistical model to determine optimal locations for subsequent sampling. RESULTS: The methodology is illustrated using recent data on the prevalence of the K13-propeller polymorphism (a genetic marker of artemisinin resistance) in the Greater Mekong Subregion. CONCLUSION: This methodology, which has broader application to geostatistical mapping in general, could improve the quality and efficiency of drug resistance mapping and thereby guide practical operations to eliminate malaria in affected areas.

The association of melioidosis with climatic factors in Darwin, Australia: A 23-year time-series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Melioidosis is an often fatal disease in humans and animals and endemic in Southeast Asia and northern Australia. It is caused by the environmental bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei. We analysed weather and climate factors preceding new melioidosis cases in Darwin and compared the time between weather event and admission to hospital for severe and average wet season rainfall. METHODS: In a time-series analysis from 1990 to 2013 we applied a boosted regression tree and a negative binomial model to investigate the association between melioidosis cases and weather events. Fitted Fourier terms controlled for long-term seasonal trends. RESULTS: We found a rise in the dew point, cloud cover, rainfall, maximum temperature and groundwater to be associated with an increased risk to acquire melioidosis. A shorter 'putative' incubation period was evident after severe rainfall events. Rainfall occurring early in the wet season was linked to more cases as was an increase in the local sea surface temperature reflecting local weather dynamics and precipitation. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate a statistical association between frequency of recorded melioidosis cases and the nature and timing of rainfall related events and suggest a future rise in the sea surface and ambient temperature may lead to increased melioidosis.

Spread of artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in Myanmar: a cross-sectional survey of the K13 molecular marker.

BACKGROUND: Emergence of artemisinin resistance in southeast Asia poses a serious threat to the global control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Discovery of the K13 marker has transformed approaches to the monitoring of artemisinin resistance, allowing introduction of molecular surveillance in remote areas through analysis of DNA. We aimed to assess the spread of artemisinin-resistant P falciparum in Myanmar by determining the relative prevalence of P falciparum parasites carrying K13-propeller mutations. METHODS: We did this cross-sectional survey at malaria treatment centres at 55 sites in ten administrative regions in Myanmar, and in relevant border regions in Thailand and Bangladesh, between January, 2013, and September, 2014. K13 sequences from P falciparum infections were obtained mainly by passive case detection. We entered data into two geostatistical models to produce predictive maps of the estimated prevalence of mutations of the K13 propeller region across Myanmar. FINDINGS: Overall, 371 (39%) of 940 samples carried a K13-propeller mutation. We recorded 26 different mutations, including nine mutations not described previously in southeast Asia. In seven (70%) of the ten administrative regions of Myanmar, the combined K13-mutation prevalence was more than 20%. Geospatial mapping showed that the overall prevalence of K13 mutations exceeded 10% in much of the east and north of the country. In Homalin, Sagaing Region, 25 km from the Indian border, 21 (47%) of 45 parasite samples carried K13-propeller mutations. INTERPRETATION: Artemisinin resistance extends across much of Myanmar. We recorded P falciparum parasites carrying K13-propeller mutations at high prevalence next to the northwestern border with India. Appropriate therapeutic regimens should be tested urgently and implemented comprehensively if spread of artemisinin resistance to other regions is to be avoided. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust-Mahidol University-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Programme and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Water quality guidelines for chemicals: learning lessons to deliver meaningful environmental metrics.

Many jurisdictions around the globe have well-developed regulatory frameworks for the derivation and implementation of water quality guidelines (WQGs) or their equivalent (e.g. environmental quality standards, criteria, objectives or limits). However, a great many more still do not have such frameworks and are looking to introduce practical methods to manage chemical exposures in aquatic ecosystems. There is a potential opportunity for learning and sharing of data and information between experts from different jurisdictions in order to deliver efficient and effective methods to manage potential aquatic risks, including the considerable reduction in the need for aquatic toxicity testing and the rapid identification of common challenges. This paper reports the outputs of an international workshop with representatives from 14 countries held in Hong Kong in December 2011. The aim of the workshop and this paper was to identify 'good practice' in the development of WQGs to deliver to a range of environmental management goals. However, it is important to broaden this consideration to cover often overlooked facets of implementable WQGs, such as demonstrable field validation (i.e. does the WQG protect what it is supposed to?), fit for purpose of monitoring frameworks (often an on-going cost) and finally how are these monitoring data used to support management decisions in a manner that is transparent and understandable to stakeholders. It is clear that regulators and the regulated community have numerous pressures and constraints on their resources. Therefore, the final section of this paper addresses potential areas of collaboration and harmonisation. Such approaches could deliver a consistent foundation from which to assess potential chemical aquatic risks, including, for example, the adoption of bioavailability-based approaches for metals, whilst reducing administrative and technical burdens in jurisdictions.

Acclimation effect and fitness cost of copper resistance in the marine copepod Tigriopus japonicus.

Copper (Cu) contamination is common and widespread in coastal marine environments. This study used the marine copepod Tigriopus japonicus to test whether Cu resistance can be developed through multigeneration acclimation to elevated Cu levels and whether the resistance has a fitness cost. T. japonicus (F0) were acclimated to three Cu concentrations (0, 10, and 100 microg l(-1)) and offspring (F1 and F2) of each treatment were subsequently acclimated at these three concentrations, respectively. Our results evidently indicated that Cu resistance of the copepod was increased even after one generation of acclimation to 100 microg Cu l(-1). The acquired Cu resistance had a fitness cost, as the intrinsic population growth rate of this Cu resistant lineage was significantly lower than the control. The Cu resistance of the offspring from Cu resistant copepods, when raised under control conditions, returned to a level comparable to the control implying a plastic physiological adaptation.

A Bayesian mixture model for estimating intergeneration chronic toxicity.

Understanding toxic effects on biological populations across generations is crucial for determining the long-term consequences of chemical pollution in aquatic environments. As a consequence, there is considerable demand for suitable statistical methods to analyze complex multigeneration experimental data. We demonstrate the application of a Bayesian mixture model (with random-effects) to assess the effect of intergeneration copper (Cu) exposure on the reproductive output of the copepod, Tigriopus japonicus, using experimental data across three generations. The model allowed us to appropriately specify the nonstandard statistical distribution of the data and account for correlations among data points. The approach ensured more robust inferences than standard statistical methods and, because of the model's mechanistic formulation, enabled us to test more subtle hypotheses. We demonstrate intergeneration Cu exposure effects on both components of reproductive output (1) the ovisac maturation rate, and (2) the number of nauplii per ovisac. Current and parent generation Cu exposures negatively affected current generation reproductive output However, in terms of reproductive output, there was also some evidence for adaptation to parental Cu exposures, but with an associated cost under Cu concentrations different from the parental exposure. Bayesian mixture and random-effects models present a robust framework for analyzing data of this kind and for better understanding chemical toxicity.

Chronic toxicity of tributyltin to development and reproduction of the European freshwater snail Lymnaea stagnalis (L.).

Chronic toxicity, growth and reproduction were measured in the freshwater gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis exposed to waterborne bis(tri-n-butyltin) oxide (TBTO) over a range of four nominal concentrations (0-10microg TBTl(-1)). Egg development was completely inhibited at 10microg TBTl(-1), whilst abnormal embryonic development was observed at 1microg TBTl(-1). For the solvent control and the 0.01microg TBTl(-1)treatment group, normal development of L. stagnalis was observed. Survivorship of hatchlings was significantly reduced by TBT at 1microgl(-1) while inhibition of shell growth of L. stagnalis was also observed at this concentration. The data were used to determine intrinsic growth rates (r) using two theoretical approaches (the Euler-Lotka equation and a Leslie Matrix). Both approaches showed that survival, fecundity and population growth rate were reduced at 1microg TBTl(-1). Interestingly, at 0.01microg TBTl(-1) snails showed a higher fecundity and growth rate than in the solvent control. The TBT concentration at which the r would equal zero (ECr(0)) and the population NOEC (No Observed Effect Concentration) were estimated. The population NOEC was defined as either the lower 95% confidence or lower 95% pointwise percentile limit of the ECr(0). Values obtained using the two different approaches were similar and thus a geometric mean was calculated to obtain a final representative population NOEC value for L. stagnalis of 2745ng TBTl(-1). The present data together with chronic toxicity TBT data for freshwater organisms, obtained from peer-reviewed literature, were used to construct a species sensitivity distribution (SSD). A predicted no effect concentration was then derived from the SSD (hazardous concentration at 5%, i.e., HC5 or 95% protection level). This SSD was compared with the SSD derived from saltwater species datasets. The HC5 value for saltwater species (3.55ng TBTl(-1); lower confidence limit: 1.93ng TBTl(-1)) was significantly lower than that for freshwater species (30.13ng TBTl(-1); lower confidence limit: 9.23ng TBTl(-1)), indicating that saltwater species are probably more susceptible to TBT than their freshwater counterparts.

Bayesian and time-independent species sensitivity distributions for risk assessment of chemicals.

Species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) are increasingly used to analyze toxicity data but have been criticized for a lack of consistency in data inputs, lack of relevance to the real environment, and a lack of transparency in implementation. This paper shows how the Bayesian approach addresses concerns arising from frequentist SSD estimation. Bayesian methodologies are used to estimate SSDs and compare results obtained with time-dependent (LC50) and time-independent (predicted no observed effect concentration) endpoints for the insecticide chlorpyrifos. Uncertainty in the estimation of each SSD is obtained either in the form of a pointwise percentile confidence interval computed by bootstrap regression or an associated credible interval. We demonstrate that uncertainty in SSD estimation can be reduced by applying a Bayesian approach that incorporates expert knowledge and that use of Bayesian methodology permits estimation of an SSD that is more robust to variations in data. The results suggest that even with sparse data sets theoretical criticisms of the SSD approach can be overcome.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment: the UK experience.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.

An evaluation of United Kingdom environmental bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment.

As a member of the group of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been causally associated with a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. Given the many uncertainties on the transmission and persistence of TSE pathogens in the environment, quantitative assessment of risks to humans and animals continues to remain a public health issue. This paper reviews quantitative BSE risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom since 1997 to address the potential for human exposure and theoretical health risks through environmental pathways. The review focuses on how model assumptions and methodology may influence the results.

Chronic toxicity of tributyltin on development and reproduction of the hermaphroditic snail Physa fontinalis: Influence of population density.

Tributyltin (TBT) is toxic to aquatic organisms and occurs widely in sediments and surface waters of American and European rivers and lakes. This study investigated TBT effects on development and population growth rate (r) of the common, hermaphroditic European freshwater snail Physa fontinalis. Egg ropes of similar age (1-3 days old) were exposed to a control (solvent only) and nominal concentrations of 0.01, 1.0 and 10 microg TBT l(-1) in triplicate. Hatching and mortality were recorded during 0-40 days of exposure. At day 40, 18 juveniles were randomly selected from each concentration (i.e., six from each test vessel) and individually exposed to the same concentration of TBT in 50 ml beakers. A cohort of 20 juveniles was allowed to continue developing in the original test vessels, so that individual and grouped results could be compared. Mortality and reproduction were recorded at 48-h intervals throughout the study period (110 days). Abnormal embryonic development was observed at 1 and 10 microg TBT l(-1). Although 50% of eggs hatched at 10 microg TBT l(-1), all these hatchlings failed to survive. Survivorship of hatchlings was significantly reduced by TBT at 1 microgl(-1). In general, there was a delay in egg production in isolated snails when compared with the grouped snails. Survival, fecundity and population growth rate (r) were reduced in both individual and grouped P. fontinalis at 1.0 microg TBT l(-1). Only a decline in r was observed in snails exposed individually to 0.01 microg TBT l(-1).

Uptake and depuration of 4-nonylphenol by the benthic invertebrate Gammarus pulex: how important is feeding rate?

The major exposure and uptake route for soluble toxins by aquatic organisms is generally considered to be through the water column. In the case of hydrophobic chemicals, exposure and uptake through diet often take on greater importance as the chemicals adsorb onto organic sediments and food. A chemical that has recently come under close scrutiny because of its toxicity and possible endocrine disrupting effects in aquatic life is 4-nonylphenol (NP). It has been detected in environmental water and sediment samples and is a persistent and hydrophobic (log KOW = 4.48) contaminant in many aquatic systems. In this study, the relative importance of NP uptake through accumulation from diet and water was examined for the detritus-feeding freshwater shrimp Gammarus pulex. Using a bootstrap nonlinear regression technique, the level of toxin present in G. pulex at any time during or after initial exposure was estimated. Heterogeneity, together with assumptions on feeding rate, was shown to affect the determination of NP uptake substantially. Because of its lifestyle as a benthic organism, the main exposure route was at first assumed to be through sediments and food. However, the results suggest that major uptake may also occur through water. The statistical and modeling methodology may be applied to uptake and depuration assessments for any aquatic organisms exhibiting a variable feeding phase.

Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment of pesticides in the UK: chlorpyrifos use on top fruit.

The use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for examining chemical impacts has become an important area of debate within the European Union. This paper describes a case study on probabilistic techniques to assess pesticide risks in the UK aquatic environment. The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate both the potential strengths and weaknesses of PRA for assessing pesticides when compared with the conventional deterministic approach, and to examine whether PRA is useful within the European regulatory context. The organophosphate insecticide, chlorpyrifos, was selected as a model compound and toxicity exposure ratios calculated using Monte Carlo analysis and different distributions of spray drift and toxicity values following application to top fruit. Chlorpyrifos is highly toxic to arthropods but less toxic to fishes. Species sensitivity followed a log-normal distribution when fitted to all toxicity data. Toxicity data quantity had little influence on species sensitivity distribution model parameters when n was greater than 10 species. Below this, estimates were less accurate and precise, possibly because of the inclusion of data from many different sources. Estimates of chlorpyrifos exposure derived from the standard spray drift model differed substantially from measurements of chlorpyrifos in European surface waters. When a distribution based on measured concentrations was used in a PRA, the risk of acute fish mortality was low, and the risk of acute arthropod mortality was lower than in other scenarios, although not negligible. If PRA is used to assess pesticides, risk managers need further guidance on how to conduct a PRA and what constitutes 'unacceptable risk' under EC Directive 91/414/EEC, as judgement is required when simple trigger values are no longer used.

Estimating the effects of 17alpha-ethinylestradiol on populations of the fathead minnow Pimephales promelas: are conventional toxicological endpoints adequate?

Environmental benchmarks have recently been proposed for several steroids including the synthetic steroid, 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE2). These benchmarks are based on extrapolation from studies involving long-term exposure of various fish species to EE2. One of the critical studies was a complete life-cycle experiment performed with the fathead minnow Pimephales promelas over a 289 day exposure period. The lowest observed effect concentration (LOEC) and the no observed effect concentration (NOEC) for gonad histology were 4 and 1 ng L(-1) respectively. This was because no testicular tissue could be found in any fish exposed to 4 ng L(-1). In the present paper, the survival and reproduction data from that study are reanalyzed to determine the effects of EE2 on the intrinsic rate of population growth (r = In (lambda)), a parameter of demographic importance. We estimate critical threshold concentrations with respect to r and compare these with those previously derived from conventional toxicity test summaries. Further, we assess the influence of individual variability on threshold estimates using a combination of bootstrap and regression approaches, together with a suite of perturbation analyses. These yield ErC100 values (the concentration estimated to reduce intrinsic growth rate to zero) of 3.11 ng L(-1) (linear model) and 3.41 ng L(-1) (quadratic model), comparable with a maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) of 2 ng L(-1) for feminization of exposed fish calculated by Laenge et al. Our results indicate that reduction in population growth rate with increasing concentration occurred more through EE2 acting to reduce fertility than survival rates. The significance of these summary statistics when deriving environmental benchmarks for steroid estrogens is discussed in the context of affording protection to populations following long-term exposure.

Estimation of demographic toxicity through the double bootstrap.

Toxicity to organisms is usually expressed in terms of an observable effect on individuals from which a summary endpoint (such as the NOEC or ECx) is derived for risk assessment and environmental quality standards. However, toxicity evaluated in terms of a demographic endpoint may be more relevant to such regulatory applications. In this paper the effect of toxicity on population growth rate r is explored in tandem with a 'double bootstrap' to incorporate uncertainty. Exemplifying the approach with a set of individualized life table response data obtained for Daphnia magna exposed to zinc sulphate solution, the influence of increasing concentrations is assessed. A demographic-based metric for r, the ErCx (effect on r concentration percentage), is defined to permit alternative population level estimation of a 'safe effect' concentration.

Time should be considered in developmental ecotoxicity test.

Developmental toxicity tests are often used for the hazard assessment of chemicals and environmental media. One of the most widely used is the oyster embryo larval test (OEL), in which the development of oyster larvae is arrested at a single fixed time (e.g. 24 or 48 h) of toxic exposure, and the proportion of normal larvae measured. However, a major problem with this conventional approach is the lack of information on temporal trends in development. In this study, Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas embryos were exposed to nominal concentrations of copper (CUSO4) of <0.001 (control), 0.60,1.25,2.5, 5.0, 10.0 and 20.0 microg l(-1) (at 20 degrees C, salinity 35 per thousand and pH 8.1). Three replicates from each group were arrested and examined every 8 h during 24-72 h of exposure, and the number of viable larvae developed to D-shape was determined. The results revealed that the number of viable D-shape larvae in the control increased rapidly and reached an optimum at 32 h, before declining gradually due to starvation. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) showed that larval developmental rates during 0-32 h were significantly inhibited by Cu at all concentrations. This paper demonstrates that arrest and measurement at different time periods are important and should be incorporated into the OEL test. This would maximise the sensitivity of the test in detecting developmental effects in spiked or environmental samples.