CALMS: Modelling the long-term health and economic impact of Covid-19 using agent-based simulation.

We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.

A route pruning algorithm for an automated geographic location graph construction.

Automated construction of location graphs is instrumental but challenging, particularly in logistics optimisation problems and agent-based movement simulations. Hence, we propose an algorithm for automated construction of location graphs, in which vertices correspond to geographic locations of interest and edges to direct travelling routes between them. Our approach involves two steps. In the first step, we use a routing service to compute distances between all pairs of L locations, resulting in a complete graph. In the second step, we prune this graph by removing edges corresponding to indirect routes, identified using the triangle inequality. The computational complexity of this second step is [Formula: see text], which enables the computation of location graphs for all towns and cities on the road network of an entire continent. To illustrate the utility of our algorithm in an application, we constructed location graphs for four regions of different size and road infrastructures and compared them to manually created ground truths. Our algorithm simultaneously achieved precision and recall values around 0.9 for a wide range of the single hyperparameter, suggesting that it is a valid approach to create large location graphs for which a manual creation is infeasible.

Uncertainty quantification of dynamic earthquake rupture simulations.

We present a tutorial demonstration using a surrogate-model based uncertainty quantification (UQ) approach to study dynamic earthquake rupture on a rough fault surface. The UQ approach performs model calibration where we choose simulation points, fit and validate an approximate surrogate model or emulator, and then examine the input space to see which inputs can be ruled out from the data. Our approach relies on the mogp_emulator package to perform model calibration, and the FabSim3 component from the VECMA toolkit to streamline the workflow, enabling users to manage the workflow using the command line to curate reproducible simulations on local and remote resources. The tools in this tutorial provide an example template that allows domain researchers that are not necessarily experts in the underlying methods to apply them to complex problems. We illustrate the use of the package by applying the methods to dynamic earthquake rupture, which solves the elastic wave equation for the size of an earthquake and the resulting ground shaking based on the stress tensor in the Earth. We show through the tutorial results that the method is able to rule out large portions of the input parameter space, which could lead to new ways to constrain the stress tensor in the Earth based on earthquake observations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Reliability and reproducibility in computational science: implementing verification, validation and uncertainty quantification in silico'.

The impact of uncertainty on predictions of the CovidSim epidemiological code.

Epidemiological modelling has assisted in identifying interventions that reduce the impact of COVID-19. The UK government relied, in part, on the CovidSim model to guide its policy to contain the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during March and April 2020; however, CovidSim contains several sources of uncertainty that affect the quality of its predictions: parametric uncertainty, model structure uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Here we report on parametric sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification of the code. From the 940 parameters used as input into CovidSim, we find a subset of 19 to which the code output is most sensitive-imperfect knowledge of these inputs is magnified in the outputs by up to 300%. The model displays substantial bias with respect to observed data, failing to describe validation data well. Quantifying parametric input uncertainty is therefore not sufficient: the effect of model structure and scenario uncertainty must also be properly understood.

Mastering the scales: a survey on the benefits of multiscale computing software.

In the last few decades, multiscale modelling has emerged as one of the dominant modelling paradigms in many areas of science and engineering. Its rise to dominance is primarily driven by advancements in computing power and the need to model systems of increasing complexity. The multiscale modelling paradigm is now accompanied by a vibrant ecosystem of multiscale computing software (MCS) which promises to address many challenges in the development of multiscale applications. In this paper, we define the common steps in the multiscale application development process and investigate to what degree a set of 21 representative MCS tools enhance each development step. We observe several gaps in the features provided by MCS tools, especially for application deployment and the preparation and management of production runs. In addition, we find that many MCS tools are tailored to a particular multiscale computing pattern, even though they are otherwise application agnostic. We conclude that the gaps we identify are characteristic of a field that is still maturing and features that enhance the deployment and production steps of multiscale application development are desirable for the long-term success of MCS in its application fields. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multiscale modelling, simulation and computing: from the desktop to the exascale'.

Community effort endorsing multiscale modelling, multiscale data science and multiscale computing for systems medicine.

Systems medicine holds many promises, but has so far provided only a limited number of proofs of principle. To address this road block, possible barriers and challenges of translating systems medicine into clinical practice need to be identified and addressed. The members of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action CA15120 Open Multiscale Systems Medicine (OpenMultiMed) wish to engage the scientific community of systems medicine and multiscale modelling, data science and computing, to provide their feedback in a structured manner. This will result in follow-up white papers and open access resources to accelerate the clinical translation of systems medicine.

Validation of Patient-Specific Cerebral Blood Flow Simulation Using Transcranial Doppler Measurements.

We present a validation study comparing results from a patient-specific lattice-Boltzmann simulation to transcranial Doppler (TCD) velocity measurements in four different planes of the middle cerebral artery (MCA). As part of the study, we compared simulations using a Newtonian and a Carreau-Yasuda rheology model. We also investigated the viability of using downscaled velocities to reduce the required resolution. Simulations with unscaled velocities predict the maximum flow velocity with an error of less than 9%, independent of the rheology model chosen. The accuracy of the simulation predictions worsens considerably when simulations are run at reduced velocity, as is for example the case when inflow velocities from healthy individuals are used on a vascular model of a stroke patient. Our results demonstrate the importance of using directly measured and patient-specific inflow velocities when simulating blood flow in MCAs. We conclude that localized TCD measurements together with predictive simulations can be used to obtain flow estimates with high fidelity over a larger region, and reduce the need for more invasive flow measurement procedures.

Impact of immigrants on a multi-agent economical system.

We consider a multi-agent model of a simple economical system and study the impacts of a wave of immigrants on the stability of the system. Our model couples a labor market with a goods market. We first create a stable economy with N agents and study the impact of adding n new workers in the system. The time to reach a new equilibrium market is found to obey a power law in n. The new wages and market prices are observed to decrease as 1/n, whereas the wealth of agents remains unchanged.

A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations.

In recent years, global forced displacement has reached record levels, with 22.5 million refugees worldwide. Forecasting refugee movements is important, as accurate predictions can help save refugee lives by allowing governments and NGOs to conduct a better informed allocation of humanitarian resources. Here, we propose a generalized simulation development approach to predict the destinations of refugee movements in conflict regions. In this approach, we synthesize data from UNHCR, ACLED and Bing Maps to construct agent-based simulations of refugee movements. We apply our approach to develop, run and validate refugee movement simulations set in three major African conflicts, estimating the distribution of incoming refugees across destination camps, given the expected total number of refugees in the conflict. Our simulations consistently predict more than 75% of the refugee destinations correctly after the first 12 days, and consistently outperform alternative naive forecasting techniques. Using our approach, we are also able to reproduce key trends in refugee arrival rates found in the UNHCR data.

Anatomy and Physiology of Multiscale Modeling and Simulation in Systems Medicine.

Systems medicine is the application of systems biology concepts, methods, and tools to medical research and practice. It aims to integrate data and knowledge from different disciplines into biomedical models and simulations for the understanding, prevention, cure, and management of complex diseases. Complex diseases arise from the interactions among disease-influencing factors across multiple levels of biological organization from the environment to molecules. To tackle the enormous challenges posed by complex diseases, we need a modeling and simulation framework capable of capturing and integrating information originating from multiple spatiotemporal and organizational scales. Multiscale modeling and simulation in systems medicine is an emerging methodology and discipline that has already demonstrated its potential in becoming this framework. The aim of this chapter is to present some of the main concepts, requirements, and challenges of multiscale modeling and simulation in systems medicine.

Mechanism of Exfoliation and Prediction of Materials Properties of Clay-Polymer Nanocomposites from Multiscale Modeling.

We describe the mechanism that leads to full exfoliation and dispersion of organophilic clays when mixed with molten hydrophilic polymers. This process is of fundamental importance for the production of clay-polymer nanocomposites with enhanced materials properties. The chemically specific nature of our multiscale approach allows us to probe how chemistry, in combination with processing conditions, produces such materials properties at the mesoscale and beyond. In general agreement with experimental observations, we find that a higher grafting density of charged quaternary ammonium surfactant ions promotes exfoliation, by a mechanism whereby the clay sheets slide transversally over one another. We can determine the elastic properties of these nanocomposites; exfoliated and partially exfoliated morphologies lead to substantial enhancement of the Young's modulus, as found experimentally.

Science hackathons for developing interdisciplinary research and collaborations.

Science hackathons can help academics, particularly those in the early stage of their careers, to build collaborations and write research proposals.

Chemically specific multiscale modeling of clay-polymer nanocomposites reveals intercalation dynamics, tactoid self-assembly and emergent materials properties.

A quantitative description is presented of the dynamical process of polymer intercalation into clay tactoids and the ensuing aggregation of polymer-entangled tactoids into larger structures, obtaining various characteristics of these nanocomposites, including clay-layer spacings, out-of-plane clay-sheet bending energies, X-ray diffractograms, and materials properties. This model of clay-polymer interactions is based on a three-level approach, which uses quantum mechanical and atomistic descriptions to derive a coarse-grained yet chemically specific representation that can resolve processes on hitherto inaccessible length and time scales. The approach is applied to study collections of clay mineral tactoids interacting with two synthetic polymers, poly(ethylene glycol) and poly(vinyl alcohol). The controlled behavior of layered materials in a polymer matrix is centrally important for many engineering and manufacturing applications. This approach opens up a route to computing the properties of complex soft materials based on knowledge of their chemical composition, molecular structure, and processing conditions.

Choice of boundary condition for lattice-Boltzmann simulation of moderate-Reynolds-number flow in complex domains.

Modeling blood flow in larger vessels using lattice-Boltzmann methods comes with a challenging set of constraints: a complex geometry with walls and inlets and outlets at arbitrary orientations with respect to the lattice, intermediate Reynolds (Re) number, and unsteady flow. Simple bounce-back is one of the most commonly used, simplest, and most computationally efficient boundary conditions, but many others have been proposed. We implement three other methods applicable to complex geometries [Guo, Zheng, and Shi, Phys. Fluids 14, 2007 (2002); Bouzidi, Firdaouss, and Lallemand, Phys. Fluids 13, 3452 (2001); Junk and Yang, Phys. Rev. E 72, 066701 (2005)] in our open-source application hemelb. We use these to simulate Poiseuille and Womersley flows in a cylindrical pipe with an arbitrary orientation at physiologically relevant Re number (1-300) and Womersley (4-12) numbers and steady flow in a curved pipe at relevant Dean number (100-200) and compare the accuracy to analytical solutions. We find that both the Bouzidi-Firdaouss-Lallemand (BFL) and Guo-Zheng-Shi (GZS) methods give second-order convergence in space while simple bounce-back degrades to first order. The BFL method appears to perform better than GZS in unsteady flows and is significantly less computationally expensive. The Junk-Yang method shows poor stability at larger Re number and so cannot be recommended here. The choice of collision operator (lattice Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook vs multiple relaxation time) and velocity set (D3Q15 vs D3Q19 vs D3Q27) does not significantly affect the accuracy in the problems studied.

Computer simulations reveal complex distribution of haemodynamic forces in a mouse retina model of angiogenesis.

There is currently limited understanding of the role played by haemodynamic forces on the processes governing vascular development. One of many obstacles to be overcome is being able to measure those forces, at the required resolution level, on vessels only a few micrometres thick. In this paper, we present an in silico method for the computation of the haemodynamic forces experienced by murine retinal vasculature (a widely used vascular development animal model) beyond what is measurable experimentally. Our results show that it is possible to reconstruct high-resolution three-dimensional geometrical models directly from samples of retinal vasculature and that the lattice-Boltzmann algorithm can be used to obtain accurate estimates of the haemodynamics in these domains. We generate flow models from samples obtained at postnatal days (P) 5 and 6. Our simulations show important differences between the flow patterns recovered in both cases, including observations of regression occurring in areas where wall shear stress (WSS) gradients exist. We propose two possible mechanisms to account for the observed increase in velocity and WSS between P5 and P6: (i) the measured reduction in typical vessel diameter between both time points and (ii) the reduction in network density triggered by the pruning process. The methodology developed herein is applicable to other biomedical domains where microvasculature can be imaged but experimental flow measurements are unavailable or difficult to obtain.

Impact of blood rheology on wall shear stress in a model of the middle cerebral artery.

Perturbations to the homeostatic distribution of mechanical forces exerted by blood on the endothelial layer have been correlated with vascular pathologies, including intracranial aneurysms and atherosclerosis. Recent computational work suggests that, in order to correctly characterize such forces, the shear-thinning properties of blood must be taken into account. To the best of our knowledge, these findings have never been compared against experimentally observed pathological thresholds. In this work, we apply the three-band diagram (TBD) analysis due to Gizzi et al. (Gizzi et al. 2011 Three-band decomposition analysis of wall shear stress in pulsatile flows. Phys. Rev. E 83, 031902. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.83.031902)) to assess the impact of the choice of blood rheology model on a computational model of the right middle cerebral artery. Our results show that, in the model under study, the differences between the wall shear stress predicted by a Newtonian model and the well-known Carreau-Yasuda generalized Newtonian model are only significant if the vascular pathology under study is associated with a pathological threshold in the range 0.94-1.56 Pa, where the results of the TBD analysis of the rheology models considered differs. Otherwise, we observe no significant differences.