A machine learning personalized treatment rule to optimize assignment to psychotherapies for grief among veterans.

BACKGROUND: Complex grief patterns are associated with significant suffering, functional impairments, health and mental health problems, and increased healthcare use. This burden may be even more pronounced among veterans. Behavioral Activation and Therapeutic Exposure (BATE-G) and Cognitive Therapy for Grief (CT-G) are two evidence-based interventions for grief. The goal of this study was to use a precision medicine approach to develop a personalized treatment rule to optimize assignment among these psychotherapies. METHODS: We analyzed data (N = 155) from a randomized clinical trial comparing BATE-G and CT-G. Outcome weighted learning was used to estimate an optimal personalized treatment rule. Baseline characteristics including demographics, social support, variables related to the death, and psychopathology dimensions were used as prescriptive factors of treatment assignment. RESULTS: The estimated rule assigned 72 veterans to CT-G and 56 to BATE-G. Assigning participants according to this rule was estimated to lead to markedly lower mean grief level following 6 months from treatment compared to assigning everyone to either BATE-G (Vdopt - VBATE-G = -18.57 [95 % CI: -29.41, -7.72]) or CT-G (Vdopt - VBATE-G = -20.89 [95 % CI: -30.7, -11.07]) regardless of their characteristics. LIMITATIONS: Participants were primarily male veterans, and identified with Black or White race. The estimated rule was not externally validated. CONCLUSION: The estimated rule used relatively simple, easily accessible, client characteristics to personalize assignment to treatment using a precision medicine approach based on machine learning and causal inference. Upon further validation, such a rule can be easily implemented in clinical practice to prescriptively maximize treatment benefits.

Differential relations between breathing retraining, in vivo exposure, and imaginal exposure homework completion and treatment outcomes in veterans receiving prolonged exposure for PTSD.

OBJECTIVES: Limited research exists that outlines the predictive relevance of the treatment components of prolonged exposure (PE) for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on PTSD and depression symptom outcomes. The goal of the present study was to investigate relations between participant completion of breathing retraining, in vivo exposure, and imaginal exposure exercises and symptom outcomes. METHODS: A total of 58 participants completed a trial of PE as part of a larger trial on peer involvement and treatment adherence. Diagnostic and self-report measures were completed throughout treatment. Participants also recorded weekly completion of breathing retraining, in vivo exposure, and imaginal exposure exercises. Pearson correlations and hierarchical regression analyses were used to investigate relations between average weekly treatment component completion and treatment outcomes, controlling for relevant variables. RESULTS: Although breathing retraining and in vivo exposures were associated with PTSD outcomes in the correlational findings, use of breathing retraining, in vivo exposures, and imaginal exposures were not reliably associated with PTSD symptom outcomes when controlling for other variables in the regression analysis. However, when investigating changes in comorbid symptoms of depression, greater use of breathing retraining was associated with decreased symptoms of depression at posttreatment. CONCLUSIONS: Present findings demonstrate the differential relations between participation in various PE treatment components and posttreatment symptom outcomes. The importance of breathing retraining in addressing comorbid depressive symptoms is discussed, with emphasis on potentially increasing relaxation and positive activities more broadly to encourage further treatment benefits.

Exploring trajectories in transdiagnostic behavior therapy.

Transdiagnostic treatments have been designed to target common processes for clusters of disorders. One such treatment, transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT), targets avoidance across emotional disorders, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depressive disorders, and anxiety disorders, and has demonstrated efficacy in randomized controlled trials. The current study was designed to examine whether distinct treatment trajectories would emerge in a sample of 112 veterans receiving TBT and whether diagnostic comorbidity, baseline levels of several transdiagnostic risk factors, or treatment engagement influence trajectory membership. Growth mixture modeling revealed three distinct trajectories across depression, ds = 0.55-1.09; PTSD ds = -0.07-1.43; and panic disorder symptoms, ds = -0.13-1.09. Notably, for PTSD and panic disorder symptoms, separate classes for responders and nonresponders emerged among participants with high baseline symptom levels. Findings for the risk factors suggested that PTSD and panic nonresponders evidenced significantly higher behavioral avoidance at baseline and reduced engagement in treatment procedures and homework completion compared to responders. Together, the findings provide additional support for the use of TBT in the treatment of emotional disorders, including PTSD. Potential adaptations are discussed for patients with significantly elevated behavioral avoidance to improve treatment engagement and related outcomes.

Anxiety sensitivity and social support in veterans with emotional disorders.

OBJECTIVE: An understanding of the incremental value of social support in predicting psychopathology above transdiagnostic risk factors could speak to the benefit of leveraging social factors into existing, evidence-based interventions in veterans with emotional disorders. This cross-sectional study aimed to expand our understanding of associations between domains of anxiety sensitivity and facets of psychopathology in veterans with emotional disorders. We also determined whether social support predicted psychopathology above anxiety sensitivity domains and combat exposure and explored these relationships with a path model. METHODS: One hundred and fifty-six treatment-seeking veterans with emotional disorders completed diagnostic interviews and assessments of demographics, social support, symptom measures (e.g., PTSD, depression, anxiety, and stress), and transdiagnostic risk factors (i.e., anxiety sensitivity). After data screening, 150 were included in regressions. RESULTS: Using regression analyses with cross-sectional data, cognitive anxiety sensitivity concerns predicted PTSD and depression above combat exposure. Cognitive and physical concerns predicted anxiety, and cognitive and social concerns predicted stress. Above combat exposure and anxiety sensitivity, social support predicted PTSD and depression. CONCLUSION: Focusing on social support in tandem with transdiagnostic mechanisms in clinical samples is critical. These findings inform transdiagnostic interventions and recommendations related to incorporation of assessment of transdiagnostic factors in clinical contexts.

Influence of comorbid social anxiety disorder in PTSD treatment outcomes for Prolonged Exposure in female military sexual trauma survivors with PTSD.

OBJECTIVE: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common psychiatric disorder that frequently presents alongside other comorbid diagnoses. Although several evidence-based psychotherapies have been well-studied for PTSD, limited research has focused on the influence of diagnostic comorbidity on their outcomes. The present study sought to investigate the influence of comorbid social anxiety disorder on treatment outcomes in patients with PTSD. METHODS: One hundred and twelve treatment-seeking female veteran participants with PTSD completed baseline assessments and received 12-15 sessions of Prolonged Exposure. Symptom measures were completed biweekly as well as at immediate posttreatment, 3-month, and 6-month follow-ups. RESULTS: Thirty (26.8%) participants seeking PTSD treatment also met diagnostic criteria for social anxiety disorder. Multilevel modeling was used to examine effects of social anxiety disorder diagnosis on post-intervention symptoms and revealed significantly worse outcomes for symptoms of PTSD and depression in participants with comorbid PTSD and social anxiety disorder. CONCLUSION: Consistent with previous studies of co-occurring PTSD and depression, present findings suggest that comorbid diagnoses may adversely affect disorder-specific treatment outcomes. As such, the presence of diagnostic comorbidity may merit further consideration and potential adaptions to the traditional, disorder-specific assessment and treatment practices for PTSD.

Investigating Relations Between the Symptoms of Panic, Agoraphobia, and Suicidal Ideation: The Significance of Comorbid Depressive Symptoms in Veterans with Panic Disorder.

Although panic disorder has been frequently associated with increased suicidal ideation and behaviors, there are multiple explanations for this association in the literature. For example, some research has demonstrated panic disorder symptoms to mediate agoraphobia and suicidal ideation, while other researchers have hypothesized that comorbid depression symptoms contribute to suicidal ideation across anxiety disorders. Of note, none of these studies were completed in veterans, a population at higher risk for suicide relative to civilian samples. The present study investigated relations between the symptoms of panic, agoraphobia, depression, and suicidal ideation in 58 veterans diagnosed with panic disorder via correlations, hierarchical regression, and exploratory path analyses. Multiple models were investigated based on prior research. The final path model demonstrated that symptoms of panic disorder predicted agoraphobia symptoms, with agoraphobia predicting symptoms of depression. Symptoms of depression, then, predicted suicidal ideation. Discussion of the findings related to comorbid depressive symptoms highlight considerations for the assessment and treatment practices for panic disorder, with a particular focus on veterans receiving care within Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.

When to end a lock down? How fast must vaccination campaigns proceed in order to keep health costs in check?

We propose a simple rule of thumb for countries which have embarked on a vaccination campaign while still facing the need to keep non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in place because of the ongoing spread of SARS-CoV-2. If the aim is to keep the death rate from increasing, NPIs can be loosened when it is possible to vaccinate more than twice the growth rate of new cases. If the aim is to keep the pressure on hospitals under control, the vaccination rate has to be about four times higher. These simple rules can be derived from the observation that the risk of death or a severe course requiring hospitalization from a COVID-19 infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid. Protecting the over 60-year-olds, which constitute approximately one-quarter of the population in Europe (and most OECD countries), reduces the potential loss of life by 95 percent.

Comorbidity as a moderator of the differential efficacy of transdiagnostic behavior therapy and behavioral activation for affective disorders.

OBJECTIVE: Transdiagnostic psychotherapies have been proposed as an effective means for addressing the needs of patients with multiple, comorbid disorders. Yet, it remains unknown whether transdiagnostic approaches empirically outperform disorder-specific psychotherapies for patients with comorbid disorders. Thus, this study tested whether comorbidity moderated the efficacy of transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT) and behavioral activation (BA) for patients with various affective disorders. METHODS: Data derived from a randomized controlled trial in which 93 treatment-seeking veterans received 12 sessions of TBT (n = 46) or BA (n = 47). Baseline comorbidity was assessed with a diagnostic interview. Patients rated their symptoms and functioning throughout treatment, and therapists recorded premature treatment discontinuation. RESULTS: Multilevel models revealed significant interactive effects on changes in symptoms and functioning, but not on the posttreatment levels of these outcomes; whereas patients with more comorbidity experienced greater reductions in distress and symptom interference in TBT compared to BA, those with one disorder had better outcomes in BA. Similarly, whereas patients with more comorbidity were less likely to prematurely discontinue TBT compared to BA, those with one disorder were less likely to prematurely discontinue BA. CONCLUSIONS: The results lend empirical support to previously untested hypotheses for potential benefits of transdiagnostic psychotherapies.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01947647.

Temporal dynamics of symptom change among veterans receiving an integrated treatment for posttraumatic stress disorder and substance use disorders.

The present study examined temporal patterns of symptom change during treatment for comorbid posttraumatic stress disorders (PTSD) and substance use disorders (SUDs). We hypothesized that PTSD symptom severity would predict subsequent-session substance use and that this association would be particularly strong among patients who received an integrated treatment versus SUD-only treatment. Participants were 81 United States military veterans with current PTSD and an SUD who were enrolled in a 12-week, randomized controlled trial examining the efficacy of an integrated treatment called Concurrent Treatment of PTSD and Substance Use Disorders Using Prolonged Exposure (COPE) compared with cognitive behavioral relapse prevention therapy (RP). Lagged multilevel models indicated that PTSD symptom improvement did not significantly predict the likelihood of next-session substance use (likelihood of use: B = 0.03, SE = 0.02, p = .141; percentage of days using B = -0.02, SE = 0.01, p = .172. Neither substance use, B = 1.53, SE = 1.79, p = .391, nor frequency of use, B = 0.26, SE = 0.50, p = .612, predicted next-session PTSD symptom severity in either treatment condition. Stronger associations between PTSD symptoms and next-session substance use were expected given the self-medication hypothesis. Additional research is needed to better understand the temporal dynamics of symptom change as well as the specific mediators and mechanisms underlying symptom change.

A comparison of transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT) and behavioral activation treatment for depression (BATD) in veterans with major depressive disorder.

OBJECTIVES: Although frequently discussed within the scope of transdiagnostic psychotherapy protocols, limited data are available on their efficacy in patients with a principal diagnosis of major depressive disorder. The present study attempted to address that gap in the literature through a randomized clinical trial comparing transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT) to behavioral activation treatment for depression (BATD). METHODS: Forty veterans with principal major depressive disorder were randomized into either 12 sessions of individual TBT or BATD, with symptom measures collected at baseline and posttreatment. Process variables for treatment engagement and completion also were recorded. RESULTS: Participants reported similar symptom improvements in depression, stress, anhedonia, and impairment across both treatments. Clinician-rated treatment improvements favored TBT. Participants in TBT also attended more appointments, canceled or missed fewer appointments, and completed the protocol at a higher rate than participants that received BATD. CONCLUSIONS: The present findings support TBT as an efficacious treatment for principal major depressive disorder, with potentially superior coverage of comorbid anxiety symptomatology and improved treatment adherence and completion compared to BATD. Pending replication in larger samples, TBT and other similar transdiagnostic psychotherapies should be considered for implementation across the anxiety and depressive disorders to simplify dissemination efforts for evidence-based psychotherapies and potentially improve coverage of comorbidity.

The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control.

We analyse 'stop-and-go' containment policies that produce infection cycles as periods of tight lockdowns are followed by periods of falling infection rates. The subsequent relaxation of containment measures allows cases to increase again until another lockdown is imposed and the cycle repeats. The policies followed by several European countries during the Covid-19 pandemic seem to fit this pattern. We show that 'stop-and-go' should lead to lower medical costs than keeping infections at the midpoint between the highs and lows produced by 'stop-and-go'. Increasing the upper and reducing the lower limits of a stop-and-go policy by the same amount would lower the average medical load. But increasing the upper and lowering the lower limit while keeping the geometric average constant would have the opposite effect. We also show that with economic costs proportional to containment, any path that brings infections back to the original level (technically a closed cycle) has the same overall economic cost.

Lockdowns and the US Unemployment Crisis.

The Covid-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented decline of economic activity at the globe scale. To slow down the spread of the virus, most governments reacted with various measures of social distancing, such as mobility controls, business and school closures, etc. We investigate the short-term impact of social distancing measures on the US labour market, using a panel threshold model with high frequency (weekly) data on unemployment across US states allowing for heteroscedasticity. Labour is a key input in production, and thus a good proxy for the state of the economy. We find that changes in the restrictiveness of mandated social distancing, as measured by the Oxford Stringency Index, exert a strong impact on unemployment. The bulk of the reaction of unemployment to a change in the social distancing restrictions does not arise immediately, but with a delay of 2-4 weeks. In addition, the impact is asymmetric. If the policies switch to tighter regulations, the increase in unemployment is quicker and higher in absolute value than a decrease after relaxation. The state of the pandemic, proxied by the number of new infections and fatalities, constitutes only a marginal factor.

Containment efficiency and control strategies for the corona pandemic costs.

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures. We introduce a modified epidemic model that we name the controlled-SIR model, in which the disease reproduction rate evolves dynamically in response to political and societal reactions. An analytic solution is presented. The model reproduces official COVID-19 cases counts of a large number of regions and countries that surpassed the first peak of the outbreak. A single unbiased feedback parameter is extracted from field data and used to formulate an index that measures the efficiency of containment strategies (the CEI index). CEI values for a range of countries are given. For two variants of the controlled-SIR model, detailed estimates of the total medical and socio-economic costs are evaluated over the entire course of the epidemic. Costs comprise medical care cost, the economic cost of social distancing, as well as the economic value of lives saved. Under plausible parameters, strict measures fare better than a hands-off policy. Strategies based on current case numbers lead to substantially higher total costs than strategies based on the overall history of the epidemic.

Preliminary Findings for Group Transdiagnostic Behavior Therapy for Affective Disorders Among Youths.

OBJECTIVE: The literature on transdiagnostic psychotherapy among youths is limited. Group transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT) has been shown to be effective for adults with affective disorders and may contain beneficial features for youths (e.g., behavioral focus, group format, ease of dissemination, and diversity of targeted diagnoses). This study aimed to investigate group TBT among youths in Canada to determine its feasibility and efficacy. METHODS: Twenty participants (ages 16-19) diagnosed as having a principal anxiety disorder completed 12 sessions of group TBT. Symptoms of anxiety, depression, and transdiagnostic impairment were assessed pre- and posttreatment. RESULTS: Participants demonstrated significant improvements on measures of anxiety (general, cognitive, and somatic) and stress, with moderate effect sizes. Findings for symptoms of depression and transdiagnostic impairment were unreliable, with small effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide preliminary support for the use of group TBT among youths with anxiety disorders. Future research should incorporate comparison groups and larger samples.

Treatment Goals and Alcohol Use Outcomes in Veterans With Comorbid Alcohol Dependence and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Previous research demonstrates the utility of goals in attaining improved drinking outcomes. Considerably less is known about the association between substance use goals and outcomes among persons with comorbid substance use disorder (SUD) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This secondary analysis examined the association between alcohol use outcomes and participants' treatment entry substance use goals to either abstain or reduce substance use in the context of treatment for comorbid SUD/PTSD. METHODS: Participants (N = 39) were treatment-seeking veterans with current alcohol dependence and PTSD. Participants completed self-report and clinician-rated measures of substance use and PTSD as part of a larger randomized controlled trial. RESULTS: Participants in both goal groups (abstain; reduce) achieved significant reductions in the likelihood of drinking and the likelihood of exceeding low-risk drinking levels. The primary analysis did not identify significant differences in outcome between goal groups; however, the exploratory analysis revealed that participants with reduced use goals were more likely to drink and more likely to exceed low-risk drinking levels. CONCLUSION AND SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: The findings suggest a moderately strong association between substance use goal and drinking outcome in the current study. Although the findings did not unequivocally support abstinence as a superior treatment goal, they offer a preliminary indication that abstinence may be an overall lower-risk option. These findings expand consideration of the utility of substance use goals and suggest that clinicians should invite consideration of abstinence but may need not limit integrated treatment for SUD/PTSD based on strict adherence to abstinence, particularly if low-risk use goals are targeted. (Am J Addict 2021;30:131-137).

Acceptability of a transdiagnostic behavior therapy in veterans with affective disorders.

Transdiagnostic behavior therapy (TBT) has been found to lead to significant reductions in affective disorder symptoms. However, patient satisfaction and treatment fit for TBT have not been examined. Within a sample of veterans, the current study examined the acceptability of TBT in comparison to brief behavioral activation (BA) for depression. Results found individuals in the TBT condition (compared to BA) were more satisfied with therapy, F(1, 48) = 6.68, p = .013. In addition, they were more likely to say that they would recommend this treatment to a friend, F(1, 48) = 3.76, p = .058, and that the TBT treatment helped them more effectively deal with problems, F(1, 48) = 3.29, p = .076, although these effects were significant at trend level. Individuals in the TBT condition (compared to BA) completed significantly more homework, F(1, 65) = 4.95, p = .030, and were more engaged in their homework, F(1, 65) = 3.98, p = .050. These findings are the first of their kind and suggest high patient satisfaction and homework completion/participation in participants completing TBT. These results are promising and suggest the continued dissemination and implementation of transdiagnostic treatments. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Social Distancing Requirements and the Determinants of the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery in Europe.

Social distancing restrictions, as measured by the Oxford stringency indicator, constitute the one variable that is most tightly correlated with the recession and recovery across EU member states.

Response-to-Treatment for Comorbid Post-Traumatic Stress and Substance Use Disorders: The Value of Combining Person- and Variable-Centered Approaches.

Optimizing treatment for co-occurring post-traumatic stress disorder and substance use disorder (PTSD+SUD) is critically important. Whereas treatments have been designed that target PTSD+SUD with some success, these treatments do not benefit all. Data-driven approaches that combine person- and variable-centered methods, such as parallel process latent class growth analysis (PP-LCGA) can be used to identify response-to-treatment trajectories across both PTSD symptoms and substance use. The current study employed PP-LCGA separately in two randomized clinical trials (study 1 n = 81, Mean age = 40.4 years, SD = 10.7; study 2 n = 59, Mean age = 44.7 years, SD = 9.4) to examine PTSD symptom response and percentage of days using substances across treatment trials comparing Concurrent Treatment of PTSD and SUD using Prolonged Exposure and Relapse Prevention. Results revealed four PTSD+SUD profiles for study one and three PTSD+SUD profiles for study two. For PTSD symptoms, response trajectories could be broadly classified into treatment responders and non-responders across both studies. For substance use, response trajectories could be broadly classified into declining, moderately stable, and abstaining profiles. When considering PTSD symptoms and substance use trajectories together, profiles emerged that would have been missed had these treatment outcomes been considered separately.