Systematic Review on Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Enzootic Cycle and Factors Favoring Virus Transmission: Special Focus on France, an Apparently Free-Disease Area in Europe.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a viral zoonotic disease resulting in hemorrhagic syndrome in humans. Its causative agent is naturally transmitted by ticks to non-human vertebrate hosts within an enzootic sylvatic cycle. Ticks are considered biological vectors, as well as reservoirs for CCHF virus (CCHFV), as they are able to maintain the virus for several months or even years and to transmit CCHFV to other ticks. Although animals are not symptomatic, some of them can sufficiently replicate the virus, becoming a source of infection for ticks as well as humans through direct contact with contaminated body fluids. The recent emergence of CCHF in Spain indicates that tick-human interaction rates promoting virus transmission are changing and lead to the emergence of CCHF. In other European countries such as France, the presence of one of its main tick vectors and the detection of antibodies targeting CCHFV in animals, at least in Corsica and in the absence of human cases, suggest that CCHFV could be spreading silently. In this review, we study the CCHFV epidemiological cycle as hypothesized in the French local context and select the most likely parameters that may influence virus transmission among tick vectors and non-human vertebrate hosts. For this, a total of 1,035 articles dating from 1957 to 2021 were selected for data extraction. This study made it possible to identify the tick species that seem to be the best candidate vectors of CCHFV in France, but also to highlight the importance of the abundance and composition of local host communities on vectors' infection prevalence. Regarding the presumed transmission cycle involving Hyalomma marginatum, as it might exist in France, at least in Corsica, it is assumed that tick vectors are still weakly infected and the probability of disease emergence in humans remains low. The likelihood of factors that may modify this equilibrium is discussed.

Genome-wide analysis of hybridization in wild boar populations reveals adaptive introgression from domestic pig.

The admixture of domestic pig into French wild boar populations has been monitored since the 1980s thanks to the existence of a cytogenetic difference between the two sub-species. The number of chromosomes is 2n = 36 in wild boar and 2n = 38 in pig, respectively. This difference makes it possible to assign the "hybrid" status to wild boar individuals controlled with 37 or 38 chromosomes. However, it does not make it possible to determine the timing of the hybridization(s), nor to guarantee the absence of domestic admixture in an animal with 2n = 36 chromosomes. In order to analyze hybridization in greater detail and to avoid the inherent limitations of the cytogenetic approach, 362 wild boars (WB) recently collected in different French geographical areas and in different environments (farms, free ranging in protected or unprotected areas, animals with 2n = 36, 37 or 38 chromosomes) were genotyped on a 70K SNP chip. Principal component analyses allowed the identification of 13 "outliers" (3.6%), for which the proportion of the genome of "domestic" origin was greater than 40% (Admixture analyses). These animals were probably recent hybrids, having Asian domestic pig ancestry for most of them. For the remaining 349 animals studied, the proportion of the genome of "wild" origin varied between 83% and 100% (median: 94%). This proportion varied significantly depending on how the wild boar populations were managed. Local ancestry analyses revealed adaptive introgression from domestic pig, suggesting a critical role of genetic admixture in improving the fitness and population growth of WB. Overall, our results show that the methods used to monitor the domestic genetic contributions to wild boar populations should evolve in order to limit the level of admixture between the two gene pools.

The Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever tick vector Hyalomma marginatum in the south of France: Modelling its distribution and determination of factors influencing its establishment in a newly invaded area.

We developed a correlative model at high resolution for predicting the distribution of one of the main vectors of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), Hyalomma marginatum, in a recently colonised area, namely southern France. About 931 H. marginatum adult ticks were sampled on horses from 2016 to 2019 and 2021 in 14 southern French departments, which resulted in the first H. marginatum detection map on a large portion of the national territory. Such updated presence/absence data, as well as the mean number of H. marginatum per examined animal (mean parasitic load) as a proxy of tick abundance, were correlated to multiple parameters describing the climate and habitats characterising each collection site, as well as movements of horses as possible factors influencing tick exposure. In southern France, H. marginatum was likely detected in areas characterised by year-long warm temperatures and low precipitation, especially in summer and mostly concentrated in autumn, as well as moderate annual humidity, compared to other sampled areas. It confirms that even in newly invaded areas this tick remains exclusively Mediterranean and cannot expand outside this climatic range. Regarding the environment, a predominance of open natural habitats, such as sclerophyllous vegetated and sparsely vegetated areas, were also identified as a favourable factor, in opposition to urban or peri-urban and humid habitats, such as continuous urban areas and inland marshes, respectively, which were revealed to be unsuitable. Based on this model, we predicted the areas currently suitable for the establishment of the tick H. marginatum in the South of France, with relatively good accuracy using internal (AUC = 0.66) and external validation methods (AUC = 0.76 and 0.83). Concerning tick abundance, some correlative relationships were similar to the occurrence model, as well as the type of horse movements being highlighted as an important factor explaining mean parasitic load. However, the limitations of estimating and modelling H. marginatum abundance in a correlative model are discussed.

Complex network analysis to understand trading partnership in French swine production.

The circulation of livestock pathogens in the pig industry is strongly related to animal movements. Epidemiological models developed to understand the circulation of pathogens within the industry should include the probability of transmission via between-farm contacts. The pig industry presents a structured network in time and space, whose composition changes over time. Therefore, to improve the predictive capabilities of epidemiological models, it is important to identify the drivers of farmers' choices in terms of trade partnerships. Combining complex network analysis approaches and exponential random graph models, this study aims to analyze patterns of the swine industry network and identify key factors responsible for between-farm contacts at the French scale. The analysis confirms the topological stability of the network over time while highlighting the important roles of companies, types of farm, farm sizes, outdoor housing systems and batch-rearing systems. Both approaches revealed to be complementary and very effective to understand the drivers of the network. Results of this study are promising for future developments of epidemiological models for livestock diseases. This study is part of the One Health European Joint Programme: BIOPIGEE.

Wild Boars as Reservoir of Highly Virulent Clone of Hybrid Shiga Toxigenic and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Responsible for Edema Disease, France.

Edema disease is an often fatal enterotoxemia caused by specific strains of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) that affect primarily healthy, rapidly growing nursery pigs. Recently, outbreaks of edema disease have also emerged in France in wild boars. Analysis of STEC strains isolated from wild boars during 2013-2019 showed that they belonged to the serotype O139:H1 and were positive for both Stx2e and F18 fimbriae. However, in contrast to classical STEC O139:H1 strains circulating in pigs, they also possessed enterotoxin genes sta1 and stb, typical of enterotoxigenic E. coli. In addition, the strains contained a unique accessory genome composition and did not harbor antimicrobial-resistance genes, in contrast to domestic pig isolates. These data thus reveal that the emergence of edema disease in wild boars was caused by atypical hybrid of STEC and enterotoxigenic E. coli O139:H1, which so far has been restricted to the wildlife environment.

A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control.

The maintenance of infectious diseases requires a sufficient number of susceptible hosts. Host culling is a potential control strategy for animal diseases. However, the reduction in biodiversity and increasing public concerns regarding the involved ethical issues have progressively challenged the use of wildlife culling. Here, we assess the potential of wildlife culling as an epidemiologically sound management tool, by examining the host ecology, pathogen characteristics, eco-sociological contexts, and field work constraints. We also discuss alternative solutions and make recommendations for the appropriate implementation of culling for disease control.

Rift Valley fever in northern Senegal: A modelling approach to analyse the processes underlying virus circulation recurrence.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is endemic in northern Senegal, a Sahelian area characterized by a temporary pond network that drive both RVF mosquito population dynamics and nomadic herd movements. To investigate the mechanisms that explain RVF recurrent circulation, we modelled a realistic epidemiological system at the pond level integrating vector population dynamics, resident and nomadic ruminant herd population dynamics, and nomadic herd movements recorded in Younoufere area. To calibrate the model, serological surveys were performed in 2015-2016 on both resident and nomadic domestic herds in the same area. Mosquito population dynamics were obtained from a published model trained in the same region. Model comparison techniques were used to compare five different scenarios of virus introduction by nomadic herds associated or not with vertical transmission in Aedes vexans. Our serological results confirmed a long lasting RVF endemicity in resident herds (IgG seroprevalence rate of 15.3%, n = 222), and provided the first estimation of RVF IgG seroprevalence in nomadic herds in West Africa (12.4%, n = 660). Multivariate analysis of serological data suggested an amplification of the transmission cycle during the rainy season with a peak of circulation at the end of that season. The best scenario of virus introduction combined yearly introductions of RVFV from 2008 to 2015 (the study period) by nomadic herds, with a proportion of viraemic individuals predicted to be larger in animals arriving during the 2nd half of the rainy season (3.4%). This result is coherent with the IgM prevalence rate (4%) found in nomadic herds sampled during the 2nd half of the rainy season. Although the existence of a vertical transmission mechanism in Aedes cannot be ruled out, our model demonstrates that nomadic movements are sufficient to account for this endemic circulation in northern Senegal.

Polymorphism of the alpha-1-fucosyltransferase (FUT1) gene in several wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations in France and link to edema disease.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, an outbreak of edema disease in a population of wild boars (Sus scrofa) took place. This was the first described case as reported worldwide. An enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (presenting the Stx2e and F18 virulence factors) is the main pathogen for this disease in wild boar. The alpha-1-fucosyltransferase gene (FUT1) has been identified as the gene regulating the expression of the receptor for E. coli stx2e F18 bacteria in domestic pigs affected by the disease. The genotypic frequencies of the FUT1 gene in European wild boars have not yet been investigated. The genotypes of wild boars for this gene were determined in four French departments with or without edema diseases cases. RESULTS: All of the wild boars analyzed had a genotype susceptible to the disease (GG or AG). The recessive, resistant A allele was found for the first time in wild boars, but in a very small proportion of individuals (7/222). No statistical differences were found between healthy hunted wild boars versus wild boars found dead by edema disease or among the four French departments. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that further mortality due to edema disease remains possible in wild boars in France.

Emergence of Southern Rice Black-Streaked Dwarf Virus in the Centuries-Old Chinese Yuanyang Agrosystem of Rice Landraces.

Southern rice black-streaked dwarf virus (SRBSDV), which causes severe disease symptoms in rice (Oriza sativa L.) has been emerging in the last decade throughout northern Vietnam, southern Japan and southern, central and eastern China. Here we attempt to quantify the prevalence of SRBSDV in the Honghe Hani rice terraces system (HHRTS)-a Chinese 1300-year-old traditional rice production system. We first confirm that genetically diverse rice varieties are still being cultivated in the HHRTS and categorize these varieties into three main genetic clusters, including the modern hybrid varieties group (MH), the Hongyang improved modern variety group (HY) and the traditional indica landraces group (TIL). We also show over a 2-year period that SRBSDV remains prevalent in the HHRTS (20.1% prevalence) and that both the TIL (17.9% prevalence) and the MH varieties (5.1% prevalence) were less affected by SRBSDV than were the HY varieties (30.2% prevalence). Collectively we suggest that SRBSDV isolates are freely moving within the HHRTS and that TIL, HY and MH rice genetic clusters are not being preferentially infected by particular SRBSDV lineages. Given that SRBSDV can cause 30-50% rice yield losses, our study emphasizes both the need to better monitor the disease in the HHRTS, and the need to start considering ways to reduce its burden on rice production.

The RISKSUR EVA tool (Survtool): A tool for the integrated evaluation of animal health surveillance systems.

Information about infectious diseases at the global level relies on effective, efficient and sustainable national and international surveillance systems. Surveillance systems need to be regularly evaluated to ensure their performance, the quality of the data and information provided, as well as to allocate resources efficiently. Currently available frameworks for evaluation of surveillance systems in animal or human health often treat technical, process and socio-economic aspects separately instead of integrating them. The surveillance evaluation (EVA) tool, a support tool for the evaluation of animal health surveillance systems, was developed to provide guidance for integrated evaluation of animal health surveillance including economic evaluation. The tool was developed by international experts in surveillance and evaluation in an iterative process of development, testing and revision taking into account existing frameworks and guidance, scientific literature and expert opinion. The EVA tool encompasses a web interface for users to develop an evaluation plan, a Wiki classroom to provide theoretical information on all required concepts and a generic evaluation work plan to facilitate implementation and reporting of outputs to decision makers. The tool was tested by planning and conducting epidemiological and economic evaluations of surveillance for classical and African swine fever, bovine virus diarrhoea, avian influenza, and Salmonella Dublin in five European countries. These practical applications highlighted the importance of a comprehensive evaluation approach to improve the quality of the evaluation outputs (economic evaluation; multiple attributes assessment) and demonstrated the usefulness of the guidance provided by the EVA tool. At the same time they showed that comprehensive evaluations might be constrained by practical issues (e.g. confidentiality concerns, data availability) and resource scarcity. In the long term, the EVA tool is expected to increase professional evaluation capacity and help optimising animal health surveillance system efficiency and resource allocation for both public and private actors of the surveillance systems.

Spatial and seasonal patterns of FMD primary outbreaks in cattle in Zimbabwe between 1931 and 2016.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important livestock disease impacting mainly intensive production systems. In southern Africa, the FMD virus is maintained in wildlife and its control is therefore complicated. However, FMD control is an important task to allow countries access to lucrative foreign meat market and veterinary services implement drastic control measures on livestock populations living in the periphery of protected areas, negatively impacting local small-scale livestock producers. This study investigated FMD primary outbreak data in Zimbabwe from 1931 to 2016 to describe the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks and their potential drivers. The results suggest that: (i) FMD outbreaks were not randomly distributed in space across Zimbabwe but are clustered in the Southeast Lowveld (SEL); (ii) the proximity of protected areas with African buffalos was potentially responsible for primary FMD outbreaks in cattle; (iii) rainfall per se was not associated with FMD outbreaks, but seasons impacted the temporal occurrence of FMD outbreaks across regions; (iv) the frequency of FMD outbreaks increased during periods of major socio-economic and political crisis. The differences between the spatial clusters and other areas in Zimbabwe presenting similar buffalo/cattle interfaces but with fewer FMD outbreaks can be interpreted in light of the recent better understanding of wildlife/livestock interactions in these areas. The types of wildlife/livestock interfaces are hypothesized to be the key drivers of contacts between wildlife and livestock, triggering a risk of FMD inter-species spillover. The management of wildlife/livestock interfaces is therefore crucial for the control of FMD in southern Africa.

Benefit-Cost Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Vaccination at the Farm-Level in South Vietnam.

This study aimed to analyze the financial impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in cattle at the farm-level and the benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of biannual vaccination strategy to prevent and eradicate FMD for cattle in South Vietnam. Production data were collected from 49 small-scale dairy farms, 15 large-scale dairy farms, and 249 beef farms of Long An and Tay Ninh province using a questionaire. Financial data of FMD impacts were collected using participatory tools in 37 villages of Long An province. The net present value, i.e., the difference between the benefits (additional revenue and saved costs) and costs (additional costs and revenue foregone), of FMD vaccination in large-scale dairy farms was 2.8 times higher than in small-scale dairy farms and 20 times higher than in beef farms. The BCR of FMD vaccination over 1 year in large-scale dairy farms, small-scale dairy farms, and beef farms were 11.6 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 6.42-16.45], 9.93 (95% CI 3.45-16.47), and 3.02 (95% CI 0.76-7.19), respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that varying the vaccination cost had more effect on the BCR of cattle vaccination than varying the market price. This benefit-cost analysis of biannual vaccination strategy showed that investment in FMD prevention can be financially profitable, and therefore sustainable, for dairy farmers. For beef cattle, it is less certain that vaccination is profitable. Additional benefit-cost analysis study of vaccination strategies at the national-level would be required to evaluate and adapt the national strategy to achieve eradication of this disease in Vietnam.

Longitudinal Study of Avian Influenza and Newcastle Disease in Village Poultry, Mali, 2009-2011.

Newcastle disease (ND) is endemic in West Africa, which has also experienced outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) H5N1 since 2006. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and incidence of AI and ND in village poultry in Mali and to identify associated risk factors. A longitudinal serologic study was conducted between November 2009 and February 2011 using ELISA commercial kits to detect antibodies. Sera (5963) were collected from 4890 different poultry. AI was rare, with a seroprevalence of 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-3.5) and a seroincidence rate of 0.7 birds per 100 bird-months at risk (95% CI 0.4-1.0). AI antibodies were short lived, with a seroreversion rate of 25.4 birds per 100 bird-months at risk (95% CI 19.0-31.7). Risk factors for AI were limited: temporal variation occurred, but proximity to a water body was a risk factor only when large populations of wild waterbirds were present. ND was very common, with seroprevalence of 68.9% (95% CI 61.9-76.0) and a seroincidence rate of 15.9 birds per 100 bird-months at risk (95% CI 11.9-19.8). ND seroreversion rate was 6.2 birds per 100 bird-months at risk (95% CI 3.6-8.9). Regarding risk factors for ND, temporal variations occurred, and ND was more likely to be present in the Sudanian agro-ecological zone than in the Sahelian zone, in chickens than in other species, in flocks with higher numbers of Guinea fowl, and in flocks that had access to a waterbody. Control efforts would benefit from further increasing the ND vaccination coverage of village poultry, although this was already quite high (54.9%) for an African country. Seroconversion seemed satisfactory in vaccinated poultry, since 90.0% (95% CI 87.6-92.4) of these had ND antibodies. Further research should investigate the apparent lack of an epidemiologic role of domestic ducks for AI in Mali (unlike in Southeast Asia) and the potential role of Guinea fowl as a reservoir for ND.

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission.

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host-vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of 'dilution effect') best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.

Risk factors for MERS coronavirus infection in dromedary camels in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and Morocco, 2015.

Understanding Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) transmission in dromedary camels is important, as they consitute a source of zoonotic infection to humans. To identify risk factors for MERS-CoV infection in camels bred in diverse conditions in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia and Morocco, blood samples and nasal swabs were sampled in February-March 2015. A relatively high MERS-CoV RNA rate was detected in Ethiopia (up to 15.7%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.2-28.0), followed by Burkina Faso (up to 12.2%; 95% CI: 7-20.4) and Morocco (up to 7.6%; 95% CI: 1.9-26.1). The RNA detection rate was higher in camels bred for milk or meat than in camels for transport (p = 0.01) as well as in younger camels (p = 0.06). High seropositivity rates (up to 100%; 95% CI: 100-100 and 99.4%; 95% CI: 95.4-99.9) were found in Morocco and Ethiopia, followed by Burkina Faso (up to 84.6%; 95% CI: 77.2-89.9). Seropositivity rates were higher in large/medium herds (≥51 camels) than small herds (p = 0.061), in camels raised for meat or milk than for transport (p = 0.01), and in nomadic or sedentary herds than in herds with a mix of these lifestyles (p < 0.005).

Inference of the infection status of individuals using longitudinal testing data from cryptic populations: Towards a probabilistic approach to diagnosis.

Effective control of many diseases requires the accurate detection of infected individuals. Confidently ascertaining whether an individual is infected can be challenging when diagnostic tests are imperfect and when some individuals go for long periods of time without being observed or sampled. Here, we use a multi-event capture-recapture approach to model imperfect observations of true epidemiological states. We describe a method for interpreting potentially disparate results from individuals sampled multiple times over an extended period, using empirical data from a wild badger population naturally infected with Mycobacterium bovis as an example. We examine the effect of sex, capture history and current and historical diagnostic test results on the probability of being truly infected, given any combination of diagnostic test results. In doing so, we move diagnosis away from the traditional binary classification of apparently infected versus uninfected to a probability-based interpretation which is updated each time an individual is re-sampled. Our findings identified temporal variation in infection status and suggest that capture probability is influenced by year, season and infection status. This novel approach to combining ecological and epidemiological data may aid disease management decision-making by providing a framework for the integration of multiple diagnostic test data with other information.

Prediction of Pig Trade Movements in Different European Production Systems Using Exponential Random Graph Models.

In most European countries, data regarding movements of live animals are routinely collected and can greatly aid predictive epidemic modeling. However, the use of complete movements' dataset to conduct policy-relevant predictions has been so far limited by the massive amount of data that have to be processed (e.g., in intensive commercial systems) or the restricted availability of timely and updated records on animal movements (e.g., in areas where small-scale or extensive production is predominant). The aim of this study was to use exponential random graph models (ERGMs) to reproduce, understand, and predict pig trade networks in different European production systems. Three trade networks were built by aggregating movements of pig batches among premises (farms and trade operators) over 2011 in Bulgaria, Extremadura (Spain), and Côtes-d'Armor (France), where small-scale, extensive, and intensive pig production are predominant, respectively. Three ERGMs were fitted to each network with various demographic and geographic attributes of the nodes as well as six internal network configurations. Several statistical and graphical diagnostic methods were applied to assess the goodness of fit of the models. For all systems, both exogenous (attribute-based) and endogenous (network-based) processes appeared to govern the structure of pig trade network, and neither alone were capable of capturing all aspects of the network structure. Geographic mixing patterns strongly structured pig trade organization in the small-scale production system, whereas belonging to the same company or keeping pigs in the same housing system appeared to be key drivers of pig trade, in intensive and extensive production systems, respectively. Heterogeneous mixing between types of production also explained a part of network structure, whichever production system considered. Limited information is thus needed to capture most of the global structure of pig trade networks. Such findings will be useful to simplify trade networks analysis and better inform European policy makers on risk-based and more cost-effective prevention and control against swine diseases such as African swine fever, classical swine fever, or porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome.

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling.

The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990-91 and 2008-09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

Drivers of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at wild/domestic interface: Insights from farmers, buffalo and lions.

Humans live increasingly in the proximity of natural areas, leading to increased interactions between people, their livestock and wildlife. AIM: We explored the role of these interactions in the risk of disease transmission (foot-and-mouth disease [FMD]) between cattle and the African buffalo (the maintenance host) and how a top predator, the lion, may modulate these interactions. LOCATION: The interface of Hwange National Park (HNP) and surrounding communal lands, Zimbabwe. METHOD: We combined a longitudinal serological cattle survey for FMD, GPS-collar data and cattle owners' interviews during four seasons in 2010-2011. RESULTS: Overall FMD incidence in cattle was low, but showed a peak during the rainy season. The incidence dynamic was significantly explained by cattle incursion into the protected area (i.e., buffer zone of 3 km inside HNP) and not by contacts with buffalo or contacts among cattle. These results suggest that FMD virus either survives in the environment or is transmitted by other ungulate groups or species. The analysis of incursion frequency in the buffer suggests that (1) buffalo and cattle are avoiding each other up to 2 months after one species track and that (2) lions make frequent incursions in the buffer few days to few weeks after buffalo had used it, whereas buffalo did not use areas occupied by lions. Lions could thus reduce the spatio-temporal overlap between cattle and buffalo in the interface, which could contribute to the low level of FMD incidence. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: During the rainy season, traditional herding practices push cattle away from growing crops near villages into the HNP but not during the dry season, suggesting that cattle owners may decide to rely on lower quality resources in the communal land in the dry season to avoid the risks of infection and/or predation in the HNP.This study highlights the complex dynamics that operates at human/livestock/wildlife interfaces.

Evidence of reduced individual heterogeneity in adult survival of long-lived species.

The canalization hypothesis postulates that the rate at which trait variation generates variation in the average individual fitness in a population determines how buffered traits are against environmental and genetic factors. The ranking of a species on the slow-fast continuum - the covariation among life-history traits describing species-specific life cycles along a gradient going from a long life, slow maturity, and low annual reproductive output, to a short life, fast maturity, and high annual reproductive output - strongly correlates with the relative fitness impact of a given amount of variation in adult survival. Under the canalization hypothesis, long-lived species are thus expected to display less individual heterogeneity in survival at the onset of adulthood, when reproductive values peak, than short-lived species. We tested this life-history prediction by analysing long-term time series of individual-based data in nine species of birds and mammals using capture-recapture models. We found that individual heterogeneity in survival was higher in species with short-generation time (< 3 years) than in species with long generation time (> 4 years). Our findings provide the first piece of empirical evidence for the canalization hypothesis at the individual level from the wild.