Lack of antibodies against seasonal coronavirus OC43 nucleocapsid protein identifies patients at risk of critical COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The vast majority of COVID-19 patients experience a mild disease. However, a minority suffers from critical disease with substantial morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES: To identify individuals at risk of critical COVID-19, the relevance of a seroreactivity against seasonal human coronaviruses was analyzed. METHODS: We conducted a multi-center non-interventional study comprising 296 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections from four tertiary care referral centers in Germany and France. The ICU group comprised more males, whereas the outpatient group contained a higher percentage of females. For each patient, the serum or plasma sample obtained closest after symptom onset was examined by immunoblot regarding IgG antibodies against the nucleocapsid protein (NP) of HCoV 229E, NL63, OC43 and HKU1. RESULTS: Median age was 60 years (range 18-96). Patients with critical disease (n=106) had significantly lower levels of anti-HCoV OC43 nucleocapsid protein (NP)-specific antibodies compared to other COVID-19 inpatients (p=0.007). In multivariate analysis (adjusted for age, sex and BMI), OC43 negative inpatients had an increased risk of critical disease (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.68 [95% CI 1.09 - 7.05]), higher than the risk by increased age or BMI, and lower than the risk by male sex. A risk stratification based on sex and OC43 serostatus was derived from this analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that prior infections with seasonal human coronaviruses can protect against a severe course of COVID-19. Therefore, anti-OC43 antibodies should be measured for COVID-19 inpatients and considered as part of the risk assessment for each patient. Hence, we expect individuals tested negative for anti-OC43 antibodies to particularly benefit from vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, especially with other risk factors prevailing.

Less severe course of COVID-19 is associated with elevated levels of antibodies against seasonal human coronaviruses OC43 and HKU1 (HCoV OC43, HCoV HKU1).

The clinical course of COVID-19 is very heterogeneous: most infected individuals can be managed in an outpatient setting, but a substantial proportion of patients requires intensive care, resulting in a high rate of fatalities. We performed a biomarker study to assess the impact of prior infections with seasonal coronaviruses on COVID-19 severity. Sixty patients with confirmed COVID-19 infections were included (age 30-82; 52 males, 8 females): 19 inpatients with critical disease, 16 inpatients with severe or moderate disease, and 25 outpatients. Patients with critical disease had significantly lower levels of anti-HCoV OC43-NP (P = 0.016) and HCoV HKU1-NP (P = 0.023) antibodies at the first encounter compared to other COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate that prior infections with seasonal coronaviruses might protect against a severe course of disease.