Understanding 'error' in the forensic sciences: A primer.

This paper distils seven key lessons about 'error' from a collaborative webinar series between practitioners at Victoria Police Forensic Services Department and academics. It aims to provide the common understanding of error necessary to foster interdisciplinary dialogue, collaboration and research. The lessons underscore the inevitability, complexity and subjectivity of error, as well as opportunities for learning and growth. Ultimately, we argue that error can be a potent tool for continuous improvement and accountability, enhancing the reliability of forensic sciences and public trust. It is hoped the shared understanding provided by this paper will support future initiatives and funding for collaborative developments in this vital domain.

The novel object-matching test (NOM Test): A psychometric measure of visual comparison ability.

This paper presents a new test of object-matching ability: the Novel Object-Matching Test (NOM Test). Object-matching (or visual comparison) is a complex cognitive and perceptual visual comparison task undertaken by forensic scientists - yet no openly available, standardised and psychometrically validated test of object-matching ability exists. This is in contrast to other visual comparison domains like face-matching where many tests are widely available. In this paper, we present the development and psychometric validation of the first openly available object-matching test where people view two complex artificial visual patterns side-by-side and decide if they are from the same source or different sources. We provide normative data and psychometric properties for two long-form and two short-form versions of the test, and two additional versions designed to identify high and low-performers. We also provide evidence of discriminant validity and convergent validity that demonstrates the NOM Test correlates strongly with other object-matching tasks like fingerprint-matching - but not other tasks requiring cognitive-perceptual skill (e.g., visual intelligence). The NOM Test is free for research use with acknowledgment and is available at https://osf.io/pv6ye/ .

Finding the perfect match: Fingerprint expertise facilitates statistical learning and visual comparison decision-making.

Forensic feature-comparison examiners compare-or "match"-evidence samples (e.g., fingerprints) to provide judgments about the source of the evidence. Research demonstrates that examiners in select disciplines possess expertise in this task by outperforming novices-yet the psychological mechanisms underpinning this expertise are unclear. This article investigates one implicated mechanism: statistical learning, the ability to learn how often things occur in the environment. This ability is likely important in forensic decision-making as samples sharing rarer statistical information are more likely to come from the same source than those sharing more common information. We investigated 46 fingerprint examiners' and 52 novices' statistical learning of fingerprint categories and application of this knowledge in a source-likelihood judgment task. Participants completed four measures of their statistical learning (frequency discrimination judgments, bounded and unbounded frequency estimates, and source-likelihood judgments) before and after familiarization to the "ground-truth" category frequencies. Compared to novices, fingerprint examiners had superior domain-specific statistical learning across all measures-both before and after familiarization. This suggests that fingerprint expertise facilitates domain-specific statistical learning-something that has important theoretical and applied implications for the development of training programs and statistical databases in forensic science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

The transparency and reproducibility of systematic reviews in forensic science.

Systematic reviews are indispensable tools for both reliably informing decision-makers about the state of the field and for identifying areas that need further study. Their value, however, depends on their transparency and reproducibility. Readers should be able to determine what was searched for and when, where the authors searched, and whether that search was predetermined or evolved based on what was found. In this article, we measured the transparency and reproducibility of systematic reviews in forensic science, a field where courts, policymakers, and legislators count on systematic reviews to make informed decisions. In a sample of 100 systematic reviews published between 2018 and 2021, we found that completeness of reporting varied markedly. For instance, 50 % of reviews claimed to follow a reporting guideline and such statements were only modestly related to compliance with that reporting guideline. As to specific reporting items, 82 % reported all of the databases searched, 22 % reported the review's full Boolean search logic, and just 7 % reported the review was registered. Among meta-analyses (n = 23), only one stated data was available and none stated the analytic code was available. After considering the results, we end with recommendations for improved regulation of reporting practices, especially among journals. Our results may serve as a useful benchmark as the field evolves.

The low prevalence effect in fingerprint comparison amongst forensic science trainees and novices.

The low prevalence effect is a phenomenon whereby target prevalence affects performance in visual search (e.g., baggage screening) and comparison (e.g., fingerprint examination) tasks, such that people more often fail to detect infrequent target stimuli. For example, when exposed to higher base-rates of 'matching' (i.e., from the same person) than 'non-matching' (i.e., from different people) fingerprint pairs, people more often misjudge 'non-matching' pairs as 'matches'-an error that can falsely implicate an innocent person for a crime they did not commit. In this paper, we investigated whether forensic science training may mitigate the low prevalence effect in fingerprint comparison. Forensic science trainees (n = 111) and untrained novices (n = 114) judged 100 fingerprint pairs as 'matches' or 'non-matches' where the matching pair occurrence was either high (90%) or equal (50%). Some participants were also asked to use a novel feature-comparison strategy as a potential attenuation technique for the low prevalence effect. Regardless of strategy, both trainees and novices were susceptible to the effect, such that they more often misjudged non-matching pairs as matches when non-matches were rare. These results support the robust nature of the low prevalence effect in visual comparison and have important applied implications for forensic decision-making in the criminal justice system.

Statistical feature training improves fingerprint-matching accuracy in novices and professional fingerprint examiners.

Forensic science practitioners compare visual evidence samples (e.g. fingerprints) and decide if they originate from the same person or different people (i.e. fingerprint 'matching'). These tasks are perceptually and cognitively complex-even practising professionals can make errors-and what limited research exists suggests that existing professional training is ineffective. This paper presents three experiments that demonstrate the benefit of perceptual training derived from mathematical theories that suggest statistically rare features have diagnostic utility in visual comparison tasks. Across three studies (N = 551), we demonstrate that a brief module training participants to focus on statistically rare fingerprint features improves fingerprint-matching performance in both novices and experienced fingerprint examiners. These results have applied importance for improving the professional performance of practising fingerprint examiners, and even other domains where this technique may also be helpful (e.g. radiology or banknote security).

Match me if you can: Evidence for a domain-general visual comparison ability.

Visual comparison-comparing visual stimuli (e.g., fingerprints) side by side and determining whether they originate from the same or different source (i.e., "match")-is a complex discrimination task involving many cognitive and perceptual processes. Despite the real-world consequences of this task, which is often conducted by forensic scientists, little is understood about the psychological processes underpinning this ability. There are substantial individual differences in visual comparison accuracy amongst both professionals and novices. The source of this variation is unknown, but may reflect a domain-general and naturally varying perceptual ability. Here, we investigate this by comparing individual differences (N = 248 across two studies) in four visual comparison domains: faces, fingerprints, firearms, and artificial prints. Accuracy on all comparison tasks was significantly correlated and accounted for a substantial portion of variance (e.g., 42% in Exp. 1) in performance across all tasks. Importantly, this relationship cannot be attributed to participants' intrinsic motivation or skill in other visual-perceptual tasks (visual search and visual statistical learning). This paper provides novel evidence of a reliable, domain-general visual comparison ability.

Public attitudes towards the use of automatic facial recognition technology in criminal justice systems around the world.

Automatic facial recognition technology (AFR) is increasingly used in criminal justice systems around the world, yet to date there has not been an international survey of public attitudes toward its use. In Study 1, we ran focus groups in the UK, Australia and China (countries at different stages of adopting AFR) and in Study 2 we collected data from over 3,000 participants in the UK, Australia and the USA using a questionnaire investigating attitudes towards AFR use in criminal justice systems. Our results showed that although overall participants were aligned in their attitudes and reasoning behind them, there were some key differences across countries. People in the USA were more accepting of tracking citizens, more accepting of private companies' use of AFR, and less trusting of the police using AFR than people in the UK and Australia. Our results showed that support for the use of AFR depends greatly on what the technology is used for and who it is used by. We recommend vendors and users do more to explain AFR use, including details around accuracy and data protection. We also recommend that governments should set legal boundaries around the use of AFR in investigative and criminal justice settings.

Limited not lazy: a quasi-experimental secondary analysis of evidence quality evaluations by those who hold implausible beliefs.

Past research suggests that an uncritical or 'lazy' style of evaluating evidence may play a role in the development and maintenance of implausible beliefs. We examine this possibility by using a quasi-experimental design to compare how low- and high-quality evidence is evaluated by those who do and do not endorse implausible claims. Seven studies conducted during 2019-2020 provided the data for this analysis (N = 746). Each of the seven primary studies presented participants with high- and/or low-quality evidence and measured implausible claim endorsement and evaluations of evidence persuasiveness (via credibility, value, and/or weight). A linear mixed-effect model was used to predict persuasiveness from the interaction between implausible claim endorsement and evidence quality. Our results showed that endorsers were significantly more persuaded by the evidence than non-endorsers, but both groups were significantly more persuaded by high-quality than low-quality evidence. The interaction between endorsement and evidence quality was not significant. These results suggest that the formation and maintenance of implausible beliefs by endorsers may result from less critical evidence evaluations rather than a failure to analyse. This is consistent with a limited rather than a lazy approach and suggests that interventions to develop analytical skill may be useful for minimising the effects of implausible claims.

The multi-faceted nature of visual statistical learning: Individual differences in learning conditional and distributional regularities across time and space.

Emerging research has demonstrated that statistical learning is a modality-specific ability governed by domain-general principles. Yet limited research has investigated different forms of statistical learning within modality. This paper explores whether there is one unified statistical learning mechanism within the visual modality, or separate task-specific abilities. To do so, we examined individual differences in spatial and nonspatial conditional and distributional statistical learning. Participants completed four visual statistical learning tasks: conditional spatial, conditional nonspatial, distributional spatial, and distributional nonspatial. Performance on all four tasks significantly correlated with each other, and performance on all tasks accounted for a large portion of the variance across tasks (57%). Interestingly, a portion of the variance of task performance (between 11% and 18%) was also accounted for by performance on each of the individual tasks. Our results suggest that visual statistical learning is the result of the interplay between a unified mechanism for extracting conditional and distributional statistical regularities across time and space, and an individual's ability to extract specific types of regularities.

Human factors in forensic science: The cognitive mechanisms that underlie forensic feature-comparison expertise.

After a decade of critique from leading scientific bodies, forensic science research is at a crossroads. Whilst emerging research has shown that some forensic feature-comparison disciplines are not foundationally valid, others are moving towards establishing reliability and validity. Forensic examiners in fingerprint, face and handwriting comparison disciplines have skills and knowledge that distinguish them from novices. Yet our understanding of the basis of this expertise is only beginning to emerge. In this paper, we review evidence on the psychological mechanisms contributing to forensic feature-comparison expertise, with a focus on one mechanism: statistical learning, or the ability to learn how often things occur in the environment. Research is beginning to emphasise the importance of statistical learning in forensic feature-comparison expertise. Ultimately, this research and broader cognitive science research has an important role to play in informing the development of training programs and selection tools for forensic feature-comparison examiners.

Forensic feature-comparison expertise: Statistical learning facilitates visual comparison performance.

Forensic feature-comparison examiners in select disciplines are more accurate than novices when comparing samples of visual evidence. This article examines a key cognitive mechanism that may contribute to this superior visual comparison performance: the ability to learn how often stimuli occur in the environment (distributional statistical learning). We examined the relationship between distributional learning and visual comparison performance and the impact of training on the diagnosticity of distributional information in visual comparison tasks. We compared performance between novices given no training (uninformed novices; n = 32), accurate training (informed novices; n = 32), or inaccurate training (misinformed novices; n = 32) in Experiment 1 and between forensic examiners (n = 26), informed novices (n = 29), and uninformed novices (n = 27) in Experiment 2. Across both experiments, forensic examiners and novices performed significantly above chance in a visual comparison task in which distributional learning was required for high performance. However, informed novices outperformed all participants, and only their visual comparison performance was significantly associated with their distributional learning. It is likely that forensic examiners' expertise is domain specific and doesn't generalize to novel visual comparison tasks. Nevertheless, diagnosticity training could be critical to the relationship between distributional learning and visual comparison performance. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

What do the experts know? Calibration, precision, and the wisdom of crowds among forensic handwriting experts.

Forensic handwriting examiners currently testify to the origin of questioned handwriting for legal purposes. However, forensic scientists are increasingly being encouraged to assign probabilities to their observations in the form of a likelihood ratio. This study is the first to examine whether handwriting experts are able to estimate the frequency of US handwriting features more accurately than novices. The results indicate that the absolute error for experts was lower than novices, but the size of the effect is modest, and the overall error rate even for experts is large enough as to raise questions about whether their estimates can be sufficiently trustworthy for presentation in courts. When errors are separated into effects caused by miscalibration and those caused by imprecision, we find systematic differences between individuals. Finally, we consider several ways of aggregating predictions from multiple experts, suggesting that quite substantial improvements in expert predictions are possible when a suitable aggregation method is used.

A Systematic Review of Supported Accommodation Programs for People Released From Custody.

One of the challenges that people recently released from custody face is securing housing. Many individuals rely on supported accommodation programs for housing in the immediate post-release period. However, the value of supported accommodation programs in producing positive criminal justice and health outcomes for people released from custody has not been widely examined. This article reviews the current literature on supported accommodation programs and the elements of these services that contribute to positive outcomes for individuals released from custody. We focused on programs that provided temporary, transitional group residences for adults recently released from a correctional setting. The systematic review identified only nine publications that met the inclusion criteria. Studies were frequently at high risk of bias and few consistent findings emerged about either effectiveness of accommodation programs or program characteristics associated with participant outcomes. Methodologically rigorous research is needed to determine the effectiveness of post-release supported accommodation programs.

Thinking forensics: Cognitive science for forensic practitioners.

Human factors and their implications for forensic science have attracted increasing levels of interest across criminal justice communities in recent years. Initial interest centred on cognitive biases, but has since expanded such that knowledge from psychology and cognitive science is slowly infiltrating forensic practices more broadly. This article highlights a series of important findings and insights of relevance to forensic practitioners. These include research on human perception, memory, context information, expertise, decision-making, communication, experience, verification, confidence, and feedback. The aim of this article is to sensitise forensic practitioners (and lawyers and judges) to a range of potentially significant issues, and encourage them to engage with research in these domains so that they may adapt procedures to improve performance, mitigate risks and reduce errors. Doing so will reduce the divide between forensic practitioners and research scientists as well as improve the value and utility of forensic science evidence.