Effect of earthquake sequences on risk-based catastrophe bond pricing.

Catastrophe bonds (cat bond in short) are an alternative risk-transfer instrument used to transfer peril-specific financial risk from governments, financial institutions, or (re)insurers, to the capital market. Current approaches for cat bond pricing are calibrated on seismic mainshocks, and thus do not account for potential effects induced by earthquake sequences. This simplifying assumption implies that damage arises from mainshocks only, while aftershocks yield no damage. Postearthquake field surveys reveal that this assumption is inaccurate. For example, in the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake sequence and 2016-2017 Central Italy Earthquake sequence, aftershocks were responsible for higher economic losses when compared to those caused by mainshocks. This article proposes a time-dependent aggregate loss model that takes into account seismicity clustering and damage accumulation effects in the computation of damage. The model is calibrated on the seismic events recorded during the recent 2016-2017 Central Italy Earthquake sequence. Furthermore, the effects of earthquake sequence on cat bond pricing is explored by implementing the proposed model on five Italian municipalities. The investigation showed that neglecting time-dependency may lead to higher difference (up to 45%) in the cat bond price when compared to standard approaches.

Characteristics and impact of environmental shaking in the Taipei metropolitan area.

Examining continuous seismic data recorded by a dense broadband seismic network throughout Taipei shows for the first time, the nature of seismic noise in this highly populated metropolitan area. Using 140 broadband stations in a 50 km × 69 km area, three different recurring, strong noise signals characterized by dominant frequencies of 2-20 Hz, 0.25-1 Hz, and < 0.2 Hz are explored. At frequencies of 2-20 Hz, the seismic noise exhibits daily and weekly variations, and a quiescence during the Chinese New Year holidays. The largest amplitude occurred at a station located only 400 m from a traffic-roundabout, one of the busiest intersections in Taipei, suggesting a possible correlation between large amplitude and traffic flow. The median daily amplitude for the < 0.2 Hz and 0.2-1.0 Hz frequency bands is mostly synchronized with high similarity between stations, indicating that the sources are persistent oceanic or atmospheric perturbations across a large area. The daily amplitude for the > 2 Hz band, however, is low, indicating a local source that changes on shorter length scales. Human activities responsible for the 2-40 Hz energy in the city, we discovered, are able to produce amplitudes approximately 2 to 1500 times larger than natural sources. Using the building array deployed in TAIPEI 101, the tallest building in Taiwan, we found the small but repetitive ground vibration induced by traffic has considerable effect on the vibration behavior of the high-rise building. This finding urges further investigation not only on the dynamic and continuous interaction between vehicles, roads, and buildings, but also the role of soft sediment on such interaction.

The Torsional Response of Civil Engineering Structures during Earthquake from an Observational Point of View.

This paper discusses the origins of torsion and its effect on the response of structures with a focus on the contribution of experimental data. The fact that torsion increases the stresses in structures, augmenting strain and damage during earthquakes, was confirmed in the 1960s. Over the years, the torsional response of structures has mainly been analysed through numerical studies, because few buildings are equipped with translational sensors, and even fewer are equipped with rotational sensors. This is likely to change as building instrumentation becomes more widespread and new generations of rotational sensors are developed. Therefore, this paper focusses on a number of scientific questions concerning the rotational response of structures during earthquakes and the contribution of experimental data to the understanding of this phenomenon.

Comparing Direct Observation of Torsion with Array-Derived Rotation in Civil Engineering Structures.

In this article, we analyze the rotation rates in a building derived from a network of translation sensors and recorded by a rotation sensor. The building is Grenoble city hall, a reinforced concrete structure with permanent accelerometric translation sensors at the top and bottom of the building. A temporary experiment was conducted, consisting in installing a BlueSeis-3A rotation sensor for more than 24 h at the top of the structure. The ambient vibrations were analyzed. The amplitudes of translation accelerations and rotation rates at the top and bottom of the building, along with their variations over time, were analyzed. The acceleration/rotation ratios were then compared with the impulse wave velocities derived from seismic interferometry by deconvolution between the top and bottom. Perspectives with regard to building imaging, time monitoring of structural integrity and understanding the contribution of rotations to the structure's response are discussed, offering new suggestions for research projects.

Nonlinear dynamics induced in a structure by seismic and environmental loading.

In this study, it is shown that under very weak dynamic and quasi-static deformation that is orders of magnitude below the yield deformation of the equivalent stress-strain curve (around 10(-3)), the elastic parameters of a civil engineering structure (resonance frequency and damping) exhibit nonlinear softening and recovery. These observations bridge the gap between laboratory and seismic scales where elastic nonlinear behavior has been previously observed. Under weak seismic or atmospheric loading, modal frequencies are modified by around 1% and damping by more than 100% for strain levels between 10(-7) and 10(-4). These observations support the concept of universal behavior of nonlinear elastic behavior in diverse systems, including granular materials and damaged solids that scale from millimeter dimensions to the scale of structures to fault dimensions in the Earth.

Forests as a natural seismic metamaterial: Rayleigh wave bandgaps induced by local resonances.

We explore the thesis that resonances in trees result in forests acting as locally resonant metamaterials for Rayleigh surface waves in the geophysics context. A geophysical experiment demonstrates that a Rayleigh wave, propagating in soft sedimentary soil at frequencies lower than 150 Hz, experiences strong attenuation, when interacting with a forest, over two separate large frequency bands. This experiment is interpreted using finite element simulations that demonstrate the observed attenuation is due to bandgaps when the trees are arranged at the sub-wavelength scale with respect to the incident Rayleigh wave. The repetitive bandgaps are generated by the coupling of the successive longitudinal resonances of trees with the vertical component of the Rayleigh wave. For wavelengths down to 5 meters, the resulting bandgaps are remarkably large and strongly attenuating when the acoustic impedance of the trees matches the impedance of the soil. Since longitudinal resonances of a vertical resonator are inversely proportional to its length, a man-made engineered array of resonators that attenuates Rayleigh waves at frequency ≤10 Hz could be designed starting from vertical pillars coupled to the ground with longitudinal resonance ≤10 Hz.

Structural-change localization and monitoring through a perturbation-based inverse problem.

Structural-change detection and characterization, or structural-health monitoring, is generally based on modal analysis, for detection, localization, and quantification of changes in structure. Classical methods combine both variations in frequencies and mode shapes, which require accurate and spatially distributed measurements. In this study, the detection and localization of a local perturbation are assessed by analysis of frequency changes (in the fundamental mode and overtones) that are combined with a perturbation-based linear inverse method and a deconvolution process. This perturbation method is applied first to a bending beam with the change considered as a local perturbation of the Young's modulus, using a one-dimensional finite-element model for modal analysis. Localization is successful, even for extended and multiple changes. In a second step, the method is numerically tested under ambient-noise vibration from the beam support with local changes that are shifted step by step along the beam. The frequency values are revealed using the random decrement technique that is applied to the time-evolving vibrations recorded by one sensor at the free extremity of the beam. Finally, the inversion method is experimentally demonstrated at the laboratory scale with data recorded at the free end of a Plexiglas beam attached to a metallic support.