Exposure of wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to sea-level rise in the Mediterranean.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to cause major changes to coastal wetlands, which are among the world's most vulnerable ecosystems and are critical for nonbreeding waterbirds. Because strategies for adaptation to SLR, such as nature-based solutions and designation of protected areas, can locally reduce the negative effects of coastal flooding under SLR on coastal wetlands, it is crucial to prioritize adaptation efforts, especially for wetlands of international importance for biodiversity. We assessed the exposure of coastal wetlands important for nonbreeding waterbirds to projected SLR along the Mediterranean coasts of 8 countries by modeling future coastal flooding under 7 scenarios of SLR by 2100 (from 44- to 161-cm rise) with a static inundation approach. Exposure to coastal flooding under future SLR was assessed for 938 Mediterranean coastal sites (≤30 km from the coastline) where 145 species of nonbreeding birds were monitored as part of the International Waterbird Census and for which the monitoring area was delineated by a polygon (64.3% of the coastal sites monitored in the Mediterranean region). Thirty-four percent of sites were threatened by future SLR, even under the most optimistic scenarios. Protected study sites and study sites of international importance for waterbirds were, respectively, 1.5 and 2 times more exposed to SLR than the other sites under the most optimistic scenario. Accordingly, we advocate for the development of a prioritization scheme to be applied to these wetlands for the implementation of strategies for adaptation to SLR to anticipate the effects of coastal flooding. Our study provides major guidance for conservation planning under global change in several countries of the Mediterranean region.

Exposición de los humedales de importancia para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras al incremento del nivel del mar en el Mediterráneo Resumen Se espera que el incremento en el nivel del mar (INM) cause cambios importantes en los humedales costeros, los cuales se encuentran entre los ecosistemas más vulnerables y son críticos para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras. Es crucial la priorización de los esfuerzos de adaptación, especialmente en los humedales con importancia internacional para la biodiversidad, ya que las estrategias de adaptación ante el INM, como las soluciones basadas en la naturaleza y la designación de áreas protegidas, pueden reducir localmente los efectos negativos de las inundaciones costeras por INM en los humedales costeros. Evaluamos la exposición de los humedales costeros con importancia para las aves acuáticas no reproductoras ante el INM proyectado en las costas del Mediterráneo en ocho países con un modelo de inundaciones costeras en el futuro bajo siete escenarios de INM para el año 2100 (de 44 a 161 cm) con un enfoque de inundación estática. Evaluamos la exposición a las inundaciones costeras bajo el INM futuro en 938 sitios costeros del Mediterráneo (≤ 30 km a partir de la costa), en donde monitoreamos a 145 especies de aves no reproductoras como parte del Censo Internacional de Aves Acuáticas y para los cuales el área de monitoreo estuvo delineada con un polígono (64.3% de los sitios costeros monitoreados en la región Mediterránea). El 34% de los sitios se vio amenazado por el INM en el futuro, incluso con los escenarios más optimistas. Los sitios de estudio protegidos y los sitios de estudio de importancia internacional para las aves acuáticas estuvieron expuestos 1.5 y 2 veces más al INM que otros sitios con el escenario más optimista. De acuerdo con esto, abogamos por el desarrollo de un esquema de priorización para aplicarse en estos humedales para la implementación de estrategias de adaptación al INM para anticipar los efectos de las inundaciones costeras. Nuestro estudio proporciona información importante para la planeación de la conservación bajo el cambio global en varios de los países del Mediterráneo.

National wetland mapping using remote-sensing-derived environmental variables, archive field data, and artificial intelligence.

While wetland ecosystem services are widely recognized, the lack of fine-scale national inventories prevents successful implementation of conservation policies. Wetlands are difficult to map due to their complex fine-grained spatial pattern and fuzzy boundaries. However, the increasing amount of open high-spatial-resolution remote sensing data and accurately georeferenced field data archives, as well as progress in artificial intelligence (AI), provide opportunities for fine-scale national wetland mapping. The objective of this study was to map wetlands over mainland France (ca. 550,000 km2) by applying AI to environmental variables derived from remote sensing and archive field data. A random forest model was calibrated using spatial cross-validation according to the precision-recall area under the curve (PR-AUC) index using ca. 135,000 soil or flora plots from archive databases, as well as 5 m topographical variables derived from an airborne DTM and a geological map. The model was validated using an experimentally designed sampling strategy with ca. 3000 plots collected during a ground survey in 2021 along non-wetland/wetland transects. Map accuracy was then compared to those of nine existing wetland maps with global, European, or national coverage. The model-derived suitability map (PR-AUC 0.76) highlights the gradual boundaries and fine-grained pattern of wetlands. The binary map is significantly more accurate (F1-score 0.75, overall accuracy 0.67) than existing wetland maps. The approach and end-results are of important value for spatial planning and environmental management since the high-resolution suitability and binary maps enable more targeted conservation measures to support biodiversity conservation, water resources maintenance, and carbon storage.

Multitemporal optical and radar metrics for wetland mapping at national level in Albania.

Wetlands are highly dynamic, with many natural and anthropogenic drivers causing seasonal, periodic or permanent changes in their structure and composition. Thus, it is necessary to use time series of images for accurate classifications and monitoring. We used all available Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 images to produce a national wetlands map for Albania. We derived different indices and temporal metrics and investigated their impacts and synergies in terms of mapping accuracy. Best results were achieved when combining Sentinel-1 with Sentinel-2 and its derived indices. We reduced systematic errors and increased the thematic resolution using morphometric characteristics and knowledge-based rules, achieving an overall accuracy of 82%. Results were also validated against field inventories. This methodology can be reproducible to other countries and can be made operational for an integrated planning that considers the food, water, and energy nexus.

Antagonistic effect of natural habitat conversion on community adjustment to climate warming in nonbreeding waterbirds.

Although the impacts of climate and land-use changes on biodiversity have been widely documented, their joint effects remain poorly understood. We evaluated how nonbreeding waterbird communities adjust to climate warming along a gradient of land-use change. Using midwinter waterbird counts (132 species) at 164 major nonbreeding sites in 22 Mediterranean countries, we assessed the changes in species composition from 1991 to 2010, relative to thermal niche position and breadth, in response to regional and local winter temperature anomalies and conversion of natural habitats. We observed a low-level, nonsignificant community adjustment to the temperature increase where natural habitat conversion occurred. At the sites affected by natural habitat conversion, the relative increase of warm-dwelling species in response to climate warming was 6 times lower and the relative species decline was 3 times higher than in the sites without natural habitat conversion. We found no evidence of community adjustment to climate warming when natural habitat conversion was >5% over 15 years. This strong negative effect suggests an antagonistic interaction between climate warming and habitat change. These results underline the importance of habitat conservation in community adjustment to climate warming.

Efecto Antagonista de la Conversión de Hábitats Naturales sobre el Ajuste Comunitario ante el Calentamiento Climático en Aves Acuáticas No Reproductoras Resumen Aunque el impacto de los cambios del clima y del uso de suelo sobre la biodiversidad está ampliamente documentado, los efectos conjuntos de estos cambios todavía no están entendidos del todo. Evaluamos cómo las comunidades no reproductoras de aves acuáticas se ajustan al calentamiento climático a la par de un gradiente de cambio de uso de suelo. Usamos conteos de aves acuáticas (132 especies) realizados en pleno invierno en 164 sitios no reproductores importantes en 22 países mediterráneos, evaluamos los cambios en la composición entre 1991 y 2010 en relación a la posición termal y a la amplitud del nicho en respuesta a las anomalías en la temperatura invernal local y a la conversión de hábitats naturales. Observamos un ajuste comunitario no significativo de bajo nivel al incremento de la temperatura en los lugares en donde ocurrió la conversión del hábitat natural. En los sitios afectados por la conversión del hábitat natural, el incremento relativo de las especies de hábitats cálidos como respuesta al calentamiento climático fue seis veces más bajo y la declinación relativa de especies fue tres veces más alto que en los sitios sin conversión del hábitat natural. No encontramos evidencias del ajuste comunitario al calentamiento climático cuando la conversión del hábitat natural fue >5% durante 15 años. Este efecto negativo pronunciado sugiere una interacción antagonista entre el calentamiento climático y el cambio del hábitat. Estos resultados remarcan la importancia que la conservación del hábitat tiene para el ajuste comunitario ante el calentamiento climático.

Development of an indicator to monitor mediterranean wetlands.

Wetlands are sensitive ecosystems that are increasingly subjected to threats from anthropogenic factors. In the last decades, coastal Mediterranean wetlands have been suffering considerable pressures from land use change, intensification of urban growth, increasing tourism infrastructure and intensification of agricultural practices. Remote sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques are efficient tools that can support monitoring Mediterranean coastal wetlands on large scales and over long periods of time. The study aims at developing a wetland indicator to support monitoring Mediterranean coastal wetlands using these techniques. The indicator makes use of multi-temporal Landsat images, land use reference layers, a 50m numerical model of the territory (NMT) and Corine Land Cover (CLC) for the identification and mapping of wetlands. The approach combines supervised image classification techniques making use of vegetation indices and decision tree analysis to identify the surface covered by wetlands at a given date. A validation process is put in place to compare outcomes with existing local wetland inventories to check the results reliability. The indicator´s results demonstrate an improvement in the level of precision of change detection methods achieved by traditional tools providing reliability up to 95% in main wetland areas. The results confirm that the use of RS techniques improves the precision of wetland detection compared to the use of CLC for wetland monitoring and stress the strong relation between the level of wetland detection and the nature of the wetland areas and the monitoring scale considered.