The impact of sport-specific physical fitness change patterns on lower limb non-contact injury risk in youth female basketball players: a pilot study based on field testing and machine learning.

Background: In recent years, identifying players with injury risk through physical fitness assessment has become a hot topic in sports science research. Although practitioners have conducted many studies on the relationship between physical fitness and the likelihood of injury, the relationship between the two remains indeterminate. Consequently, this study utilized machine learning to preliminary investigate the relationship between individual physical fitness tests and injury risk, aiming to identify whether patterns of physical fitness change have an impact on injury risk. Methods: This study conducted a retrospective analysis by extracting the records of 17 young female basketball players from the sport-specific physical fitness monitoring and injury registration database in Fujian Province. Sports-specific physical fitness tests included physical performance, physiological, biochemical, and subjective perceived responses. The data for each player was standardized individually using Z-scores. Synthetic minority over-sampling techniques and edited nearest neighbor algorithms were used to sample the training set to address the negative impact of class imbalance on model performance. Feature extraction was performed on the dataset using linear discriminant analysis, and the prediction model was constructed using the cost-sensitive neural network. Results: The 10 replicate 5-fold stratified cross-validation showed that the lower limb non-contact injury prediction model based on the cost-sensitive neural network had achieved good discrimination and calibration (average Precision: 0.6360; average Recall: 0.8700; average F2-Score: 0.7980; average AUC: 0.8590; average Brier-score: 0.1020), which could be well applied in training practice. According to the attribution analysis, agility and speed were important physical attributes that affect youth female basketball players' non-contact lower limb injury risk. Specifically, there was enhance in the performance of the 1-min double under, accompanied by an increase in urinary ketone and urinary blood levels following the agility test. The 3/4 basketball court sprint performance improved, while urinary protein and RPE levels decreased after the speed test. Conclusion: The sport-specific physical fitness change pattern can impact the lower limb non-contact injury risk of young female basketball players in Fujian Province, specifically in terms of agility and speed. These findings will provide valuable insights for planning athletes' physical training programs, managing fatigue, and preventing injuries.

A novel lower extremity non-contact injury risk prediction model based on multimodal fusion and interpretable machine learning.

The application of machine learning algorithms in studying injury assessment methods based on data analysis has recently provided a new research insight for sports injury prevention. However, the data used in these studies are primarily multi-source and multimodal (i.e., longitudinal repeated-measures data and cross-sectional data), resulting in the models not fully utilising the information in the data to reveal specific injury risk patterns. Therefore, this study proposed an injury risk prediction model based on a multi-modal strategy and machine learning algorithms to handle multi-source data better and predict injury risk. This study retrospectively analysed the routine monitoring data of sixteen young female basketball players. These data included training load, perceived well-being status, physiological response, physical performance and lower extremity non-contact injury registration. This study partitions the original dataset based on the frequency of data collection. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used to construct unimodal submodels to obtain decision scores for each category of indicators. Ultimately, the decision scores from each submodel were fused using the random forest (RF) to generate a lower extremity non-contact injury risk prediction model at the decision-level. The 10-fold cross-validation results showed that the fusion model was effective in classifying non-injured (mean Precision: 0.9932, mean Recall: 0.9976, mean F2-score: 0.9967), minimal lower extremity non-contact injuries risk (mean Precision: 0.9317, mean Recall: 0.9167, mean F2-score: 0.9171), and mild lower extremity non-contact injuries risk (mean Precision: 0.9000, mean Recall: 0.9000, mean F2-score: 0.9000). The model performed significantly more optimal than the submodel. Comparing the fusion model proposed with a traditional data integration scheme, the average Precision and Recall improved by 8.2 and 20.3%, respectively. The decision curves analysis showed that the proposed fusion model provided a higher net benefit to athletes with potential lower extremity non-contact injury risk. The validity, feasibility and practicality of the proposed model have been confirmed. In addition, the shapley additive explanation (SHAP) and network visualisation revealed differences in lower extremity non-contact injury risk patterns across severity levels. The model proposed in this study provided a fresh perspective on injury prevention in future research.