Early assessment of weight velocity can support frontline health workers in predicting malnutrition in HIV-exposed infants: preliminary results from a DREAM cohort in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Children born to HIV-positive mothers are particularly susceptible to malnutrition. Currently, monitoring programs rely on punctual anthropometric measurements to assess child growth. Growth velocities could be an additional tool in identifying critical time windows for prevention and implementation of early intervention for malnutrition. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 817 HIV exposed but uninfected children extracted from DREAM program database. By using the WHO reference for growth standards, patterns of weight velocity for different intervals of assessment from one to 18 months of age were explored. Odds ratios and multinomial logistic regressions between selected weight velocity Z-scores thresholds and successive malnutrition indices (at 6, 12, 18 months of age) were calculated. RESULTS: Weight velocity was above the standard mean in the first 3 months, then progressively declined over time. In children with normal nutritional status, significant risks of becoming malnourished (mild malnutrition - underweight [OR 10.8; 95% CI: 4.5-26], chronic malnutrition - stunting [OR 8.3; 95% CI: 2-34.9] and acute malnutrition - wasting [OR 11.7; 95% CI: 1.5-90.5]) started when weight velocity Z-scores <0, at all interval ages. Multinomial regression showed that in the first 6 months, the weight velocity decrements strongly impacted on underweight (OR 17.9; 95% CI: 4-80.7), while the risk of Stunting occurred later at 18 months (OR 8.7; 95% CI: 4.3-17.6), with highest impact at the lowest thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: The assessment of weight velocity Z-scores, coupled with the already validated malnutrition indices, can support frontline health workers in early prediction of child malnutrition and performing nutritional counselling in the context of HIV/AIDS and food insecurity.

Reduction of maternal mortality with highly active antiretroviral therapy in a large cohort of HIV-infected pregnant women in Malawi and Mozambique.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection is a major contributor to maternal mortality in resource-limited settings. The Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition Programme has been promoting HAART use during pregnancy and postpartum for Prevention-of-mother-to-child-HIV transmission (PMTCT) irrespective of maternal CD4 cell counts since 2002. METHODS: Records for all HIV+ pregnancies followed in Mozambique and Malawi from 6/2002 to 6/2010 were reviewed. The cohort was comprised by pregnancies where women were referred for PMTCT and started HAART during prenatal care (n = 8172, group 1) and pregnancies where women were referred on established HAART (n = 1978, group 2). RESULTS: 10,150 pregnancies were followed. Median (IQR) baseline values were age 26 years (IQR:23-30), CD4 count 392 cells/mm(3) (IQR:258-563), Viral Load log10 3.9 (IQR:3.2-4.4), BMI 23.4 (IQR:21.5-25.7), Hemoglobin 10.0 (IQR: 9.0-11.0). 101 maternal deaths (0.99%) occurred during pregnancy to 6 weeks postpartum: 87 (1.1%) in group 1 and 14 (0.7%) in group 2. Mortality was 1.3% in women with

Predicting trends in HIV-1 sexual transmission in sub-Saharan Africa through the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition model: antiretrovirals for 5 reduction of population infectivity, incidence and prevalence at the district level.

BACKGROUND: The use of antiretrovirals to reduce the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been evaluated in mathematical models as potential strategies for curtailing the epidemic. Cohort data from the Drug Resource Enhancement Against AIDS and Malnutrition (DREAM) Program was used to generate a realistic model for the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Two combined stochastic models were developed: patient and epidemic models. Models were combined using virus load as a parameter of infectivity. DREAM data that assessed patient care in Mozambique and Malawi were used to generate measures of infectivity, survival, and adherence. The Markov chain prediction model was used for the analysis of disease progression in treated and untreated patients. A partnership model was used to assess the probability that an infected individual would transmit HIV. RESULTS: Data from 26565 patients followed up from January 2002 through July 2009 were analyzed with the model; 63% of patients were female, the median age was 35 years, and the median observation time was 25 months. In the model, a 5-fold reduction in infectivity (from 1.6% to 0.3%) occurred within 3 years when triple ART was used. The annual incidence of HIV infection declined from 7% to 2% in 2 years, and the prevalence was halved, from 12% to 6%, in 11 years. Mortality in HIV-infected individuals declined by 50% in 5 years. A cost analysis demonstrated economic efficiency after 4 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our model, based on patient data, supports the hypothesis that treatment of all infected individuals translates into a drastic reduction in incident HIV infections. A targeted implementation strategy with massive population coverage is feasible in sub-Saharan Africa.