The normalisation of terror: the response of Israel's stock market to long periods of terrorism.

Man-made disasters such as acts of terrorism may affect a society's resiliency and sensitivity to prolonged physical and psychological stress. The Israeli Tel Aviv stock market TA-100 Index was used as an indicator of reactivity to suicide terror bombings. After accounting for factors such as world market changes and attack severity and intensity, the analysis reveals that although Israel's financial base remained sensitive to each act of terror across the entire period of the Second Intifada (2000-06), sustained psychological resilience was indicated with no apparent overall market shift. In other words, we saw a 'normalisation of terror' following an extended period of continued suicide bombings. The results suggest that investors responded to less transitory global market forces, indicating sustained resilience and long-term market confidence. Future studies directly measuring investor expectations and reactions to man-made disasters, such as terrorism, are warranted.

Patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria underscore importance of data collection from private health care facilities in India.

BACKGROUND: This study describes patterns of falciparum and vivax malaria in a private comprehensive-care, multi-specialty hospital in New Delhi from July 2006 to July 2008. METHODS: Malarial morbidity by Plasmodium species (Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, or Plasmodium sp.) was confirmed using microscopy and antigen tests. The influence of seasonal factors and selected patient demographics on morbidity was evaluated. The proportions of malaria cases caused by P. falciparum at the private facility were compared to data from India's National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) during the same period for the Delhi region. RESULTS: In New Delhi, P. faciparum was the dominant cause of cases requiring treatment in the private hospital during the period examined. The national data reported a smaller proportion of malaria cases caused by P. falciparum in the national capital region than was observed in a private facility within the region. Plasmodium vivax also caused a large proportion of the cases presenting clinically at the private hospital during the summer and monsoon seasons. CONCLUSION: The proportion of P. falciparum malaria cases tends to be greatest during the post-monsoon season while the proportion of P. vivax malaria cases tends to be greatest in the monsoon season. Private hospital data demonstrate an under-reporting of malaria case incidences in the data from India's national surveillance programme during the same period for the national capital region.

Hydrological modeling of geophysical parameters of arboviral and protozoan disease vectors in Internally Displaced People camps in Gulu, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine if remotely sensed data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) can test relationships between Culex quinquefasciatus and Anopheles gambiae s.l. larval habitats and environmental parameters within Internally Displaced People (IDP) campgrounds in Gulu, Uganda. A total of 65 georeferenced aquatic habitats in various IDP camps were studied to compare the larval abundance of Cx. quinquefasciatus and An. gambiae s.l. The aquatic habitat dataset were overlaid onto Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps retrieved from Landsat imagery with 150 m x 150 m grid cells stratified by levels of drainage. The LULC change was estimated over a period of 14 years. Poisson regression analyses and Moran's I statistics were used to model relationships between larval abundance and environmental predictors. Individual larval habitat data were further evaluated in terms of their covariations with spatial autocorrelation by regressing them on candidate spatial filter eigenvectors. Multispectral QuickBird imagery classification and DEM-based GIS methods were generated to evaluate stream flow direction and accumulation for identification of immature Cx. quinquefasciatus and An. gambiae s.l. and abundance. RESULTS: The main LULC change in urban Gulu IDP camps was non-urban to urban, which included about 71.5 % of the land cover. The regression models indicate that counts of An. gambiae s.l. larvae were associated with shade while Cx. quinquefasciatus were associated with floating vegetation. Moran's I and the General G statistics for mosquito density by species and instars, identified significant clusters of high densities of Anopheles; larvae, however, Culex are not consistently clustered. A stepwise negative binomial regression decomposed the immature An. gambiae s.l. data into empirical orthogonal bases. The data suggest the presence of roughly 11% to 28 % redundant information in the larval count samples. The DEM suggest a positive correlation for Culex (0.24) while for Anopheles there was a negative correlation (-0.23) for a local model distance to stream. CONCLUSION: These data demonstrate that optical remote sensing; geostatistics and DEMs can be used to identify parameters associated with Culex and Anopheles aquatic habitats.

Ambient air pollution and daily pediatric hospitalizations for asthma.

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: A series of severe air pollution episodes in Europe and North America prior to 1960 have focused scientific and regulatory attention on the adverse effects of air pollution on human health. As a consequence of significant reductions in ambient air pollution levels in the intervening years, scientists and public health officials have become more concerned with the potential health effects of exposure to routine concentrations of air pollution. Several recent time series studies conducted worldwide have found relatively low levels of air pollutants that are below national standards were associated with adverse effects on mortality and morbidity. This study examined the effects of ambient air pollution indicators on the daily rate of pediatric hospital admissions for asthma in the Oklahoma City Metropolitan area from 2001-2003. METHODS: Data were collected for the number of children < or = 14 years old hospitalized for asthma on a daily basis (N = 1270) and ambient concentrations of NO2, O3, PM2.5, mold and pollen concentrations, and meso-scale meteorological conditions. Results. Negative binomial regression analysis revealed significant relationships between the total number of hospitalizations per day and the one-hour maximum NO2 level, the proportion of susceptible children < 5 years old, and the ratio of temperature to humidity. DISCUSSION: This study of the total number of children aged < or = 14 years old experiencing hospitalizations on a daily basis in the Oklahoma City area from 2001-2003 underscores factors other than ambient air pollution, especially when concentrations are low, affect hospitalizations for pediatric asthma. For example, information related to indoor air quality, health care, family history, and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and other irritants are not obtainable. Yet, those factors are risk drivers for asthma. Similarly, health privacy requirements prevented obtaining data on physiological factors specific to each child such as differentials in airways functional capacity or other impairments influenced asthma exacerbation. This makes calculating relative risk inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: Although ambient air pollution concentrations and meteorological conditions influence pediatric asthma hospitalizations, they are not the major predictors in the Oklahoma City metropolitan area. This is consistent with other research that finds limited effects associated with low levels for concentrations of the criteria pollutants. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Although limiting concentrations for criteria air pollutants to levels below human health-based standards exhibited beneficial effects, other factors also need to be identified and addressed in order to reduce pediatric hospitalizations for asthma.

Using multimedia modeling to expedite site characterization.

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: This paper uses two case studies of U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons complex installations to illustrate the integration of expedited site characterization (ESC) and multimedia modeling in the remedial action decision making process. CONCEPTUAL SITE MODELS, MULTIMEDIA MODELS, AND EXPEDITED SITE CHARACTERIZATION: Conceptual site models outline assumptions about contaminates and the spatial/temporal distribution of potential receptors. Multimedia models simulate contaminant transport and fate through multiple environmental media, estimate potential human exposure via specific exposure pathways, and estimate the risk of cancer and non-cancer health outcomes. ESC relies on using monitoring data to quantify the key components of an initial conceptual site model that is modified iteratively using the multimedia model. CASE STUDIES: Two case studies are presented that used the ESC approach: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Pantex. LANL released radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds, into canyons surrounding the facility. The Pantex Plant has past waste management operations which included burning chemical wastes in unlined pits, burying wastes in unlined landfills, and discharging plant wastewaters into on-site surface waters. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies indicate that using multimedia models with the ESC approach can inform assessors about what, where, and how much site characterization data needs to be collected to reduce the uncertainty associated with risk assessment. Lowering the degree of uncertainty reduces the time and cost associated with assessing potential risk and increases the confidence that decision makers have in the assessments performed.

Estimating erosion in a riverine watershed: Bayou Liberty-Tchefuncta River in Louisiana.

UNLABELLED: GOAL, SCOPE, BACKGROUND: Sheet erosion from agricultural, forest and urban lands may increase stream sediment loads as well as transport other pollutants that adversely affect water quality, reduce agricultural and forest production, and increase infrastructure maintenance costs. This study uses spatial analysis techniques and a numerical modeling approach to predict areas with the greatest sheet erosion potential given different soils disturbance scenarios. METHODS: A Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were used to estimate sheet erosion from 0.64 ha parcels of land within the watershed. The Soil Survey of St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana was digitized, required soil attributes entered into the GIS database, and slope factors determined for each 80 x 80 meter parcel in the watershed. The GIS/USLE model used series-specific erosion K factors, a rainfall factor of 89, and a GIS database of scenario-driven cropping and erosion control practice factors to estimate potential soil loss due to sheet erosion. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A general trend of increased potential sheet erosion occurred for all land use categories (urban, agriculture/grasslands, forests) as soil disturbance increases from cropping, logging and construction activities. Modeling indicated that rapidly growing urban areas have the greatest potential for sheet erosion. Evergreen and mixed forests (production forest) had lower sheet erosion potentials; with deciduous forests (mostly riparian) having the least sheet erosion potential. Erosion estimates from construction activities may be overestimated because of the value chosen for the erosion control practice factor. CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates the ease with which GIS can be integrated with the Universal Soil Loss Equation to identify areas with high sheet erosion potential for large scale management and policy decision making. RECOMMENDATIONS: The GIS/USLE modeling approach used in this study offers a quick and inexpensive tool for estimating sheet erosion within watersheds using publicly available information. This method can quickly identify discrete locations with relatively precise spatial boundaries (approximately 80 meter resolution) that have a high sheet erosion potential as well as areas where management interventions might be appropriate to prevent or ameliorate erosion.

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum transmission along the Kenyan coast.

The seasonal dynamics and spatial distributions of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium falciparum parasites were studied for one year at 30 villages in Malindi, Kilifi, and Kwale Districts along the coast of Kenya. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled inside houses at each site once every two months and malaria parasite prevalence in local school children was determined at the end of the entomologic survey. A total of 5,476 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 3,461 An. funestus were collected. Species in the An. gambiae complex, identified by a polymerase chain reaction, included 81.9% An. gambiae s.s., 12.8% An. arabiensis, and 5.3% An. merus. Anopheles gambiae s.s. contributed most to the transmission of P. falciparum along the coast as a whole, while An. funestus accounted for more than 50% of all transmission in Kwale District. Large spatial heterogeneity of transmission intensity (< 1 up to 120 infective bites per person per year) resulted in correspondingly large and significantly related variations in parasite prevalence (range = 38-83%). Thirty-two percent of the sites (7 of 22 sites) with malaria prevalences ranging from 38% to 70% had annual entomologic inoculation rates (EIR) less than five infective bites per person per year. Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus densities in Kwale were not significantly influenced by rainfall. However, both were positively correlated with rainfall one and three months previously in Malindi and Kilifi Districts, respectively. These unexpected variations in the relationship between mosquito populations and rainfall suggest environmental heterogeneity in the predominant aquatic habitats in each district. One important conclusion is that the highly non-linear relationship between EIRs and prevalence indicates that the consistent pattern of high prevalence might be governed by substantial variation in transmission intensity measured by entomologic surveys. The field-based estimate of entomologic parameters on a district level does not provide a sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in this study.

Occurrence and distribution of Anopheles (Diptera: Culicidae) larval habitats on land cover change sites in urban Kisumu and urban Malindi, Kenya.

A multitemporal, land use land cover (LULC) classification dataset incorporating distributions of mosquito larval habitats was produced in ERDAS Imagine using the combined images from the Multispectral Thermal Imager (MTI) at 5 m spatial resolution from 2001 with Thematic Mapper-classification data at 28.5 m spatial resolution from 1987 and 1989 for Kisumu and Malindi, Kenya. Total LULC change for Kisumu over 14 yr was 30.2%. Total LULC change for Malindi over 12 yr was 30.6%. Of those areas in which change was detected, the LULC change for Kisumu was 72.5% for nonurban to urban, 21.7% urban to nonurban, 0.4% urban to water, 4.5% water to urban, and 0.9% water to nonurban. The proportion of LULC change for Malindi was 93.5% for nonurban to urban, 5.9% urban to nonurban, 0.2% urban to water, 0.3% nonurban to water, and 0.1% water to urban. A grid (270 m x 270 m cells) was overlaid over the maps stratifying grid cells based on drainage and planning. Of 84 aquatic habitats in Kisumu, 32.1% were located in LULC change sites and 67.9% were located in LULC nonchange sites. Of 170 aquatic habitats in Malindi, 26.5% were located in LULC change sites and 73.5% were located in LULC nonchange sites. The most abundant LULC change per strata with anopheline habitats was unplanned and poorly drained. Ditches and puddles in Kisumu and car tracks in Malindi displayed the highest number of anopheline larval habitats for all LULC change sites. The proportion of site positive aquatic habitats for anopheline larvae was higher in LULC change sites than for LULC nonchange sites for Kisumu. This evidence suggests LULC change can influence anopheline larval habitat distribution.

Modeling mobile source emissions during traffic jams in a micro urban environment.

Urbanization typically involves a continuous increase in motor vehicle use, resulting in congestion known as traffic jams. Idling emissions due to traffic jams combine with the complex terrain created by buildings to concentrate atmospheric pollutants in localized areas. This research simulates emissions concentrations and distributions for a congested street in Minsk, Belarus. Ground-level (up to 50-meters above the street's surface) pollutant concentrations were calculated using STAR (version 3.10) with emission factors obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, wind speed and direction, and building location and size. Relative emissions concentrations and distributions were simulated at 1-meter and 10-meters above street level. The findings demonstrate the importance of wind speed and direction, and building size and location on emissions concentrations and distributions, with the leeward sides of buildings retaining up to 99 percent of the emitted pollutants within 1-meter of street level, and up to 77 percent 10-meters above the street.