Association between anion gap and mortality of aortic aneurysm in intensive care unit after open surgery.

BACKGROUND: There has not been a well-accepted prognostic model to predict the mortality of aortic aneurysm patients in intensive care unit after open surgery repair. Otherwise, our previous study found that anion gap was a prognosis factor for aortic aneurysm patients. Therefore, we wanted to investigate the relationship between anion gap and mortality of aortic aneurysm patients in intensive care unit after open surgery repair. METHODS: From Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III, data of aortic aneurysm patients in intensive care unit after open surgery were enrolled. The primary clinical outcome was defined as death in intensive care unit. Univariate analysis was conducted to compare the baseline data in different groups stratified by clinical outcome or by anion gap level. Restricted cubic spline was drawn to find out the association between anion gap level and mortality. Subgroup analysis was then conducted to show the association in different level and was presented as frost plot. Multivariate regression models were built based on anion gap and were adjusted by admission information, severity score, complication, operation and laboratory indicators. Receiver operating characteristic curves were drawn to compare the prognosis ability of anion gap and simplified acute physiology score II. Decision curve analysis was finally conducted to indicate the net benefit of the models. RESULTS: A total of 405 aortic aneurysm patients were enrolled in this study and the in-intensive-care-unit (in-ICU) mortality was 6.9%. Univariate analysis showed that elevated anion gap was associated with high mortality (P value < 0.001), and restricted cubic spline analysis showed the positive correlation between anion gap and mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the mortality predictive ability of anion gap approached that of simplified acute physiology score II and even performed better in predicting in-hospital mortality (P value < 0.05). Moreover, models based on anion gap showed that 1 mEq/L increase of anion gap improved up to 42.3% (95% confidence interval 28.5-59.8%) risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The level of serum anion gap was an important prognosis factor for aortic aneurysm mortality in intensive care unit after open surgery.

Prognostic nomogram for 30-day mortality of deep vein thrombosis patients in intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to use the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III database to build a nomogram to identify 30-day mortality risk of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) patients in intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Stepwise logistic regression and logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to fit two prediction models. Bootstrap method was used to perform internal validation. RESULTS: We obtained baseline data of 535 DVT patients, 91 (17%) of whom died within 30 days. The discriminations of two new models were better than traditional scores. Compared with simplified acute physiology score II (SAPSII), the predictive abilities of two new models were improved (Net reclassification improvement [NRI] > 0; Integrated discrimination improvement [IDI] > 0; P < 0.05). The Brier scores of two new models in training set were 0.091 and 0.108. After internal validation, corrected area under the curves for two models were 0.850 and 0.830, while corrected Brier scores were 0.108 and 0.114. The more concise model was chosen to make the nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram developed by logistic regression with LASSO model can provide an accurate prognosis for DVT patients in ICU.