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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been considered as a global threat infectious disease, and various mathematical models are being used to conduct multiple studies to analyze and predict the evolution of this epidemic. We statistically analyze the epidemic data from February 24 to March 30, 2020 in Italy, and proposes a simple time series analysis model based on the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The cumulative number of newly diagnosed and newly diagnosed patients in Italy is preprocessed and can be used to predict the spread of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic. The conclusion is that an inflection point is expected to occur in Italy in early April, and some reliable points are put forward for the inflection point of the epidemic: strengthen regional isolation and protection, do a good job of personal hygiene, and quickly treat the team leaders existing medical forces. It is hoped that the "City Closure" decree issued by the Italian government will go in the right direction, because this is the only way to curb the epidemic.
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ObjectiveTo explore the effect of combined usage of expanding coronal decompressive craniectomy and sequential dural incision for treating severe bilateral frontal contusion (SBFC).Methods Forty-three patients with SBFC were randomly divided by sequential single day after hospitalization into two groups.Observation group(23 cases) treated with expanding coronal decompressive craniectomy and sequential dural incision.Control group (20 cases) treated with standard hemicraniectomy and routine dural incision.ResultsThe occurrence rate of acute cephalocele was significantly lower in observation group [ 17.4％(4/23) ] than that in control group [ 55.0％(11/20) ] (P ＜ 0.05).According to Glasgow outcome scale (GOS) score of six-month observation after operation,17 cases(73.9％,17/23) of observation group got favourable recovery or moderate deficit,other 6 cases(26.1％,6/23) got severe deficit,persistent vegetative status or death.While only 8 cases(40.0％,8/20) got favourable recovery or moderate deficit,12 cases ( 60.0％,12/20 ) got severe deficit,persistent vegetative status or death in control group.The rate of favourable recovery and moderate deficit of two groups had statistical significance (P ＜ 0.05).ConclusionCombination application of expanding coronal decompressive craniectomy and sequential dural incision is an effective method to treat patients with SBFC,and can obviously improve the rate of successful rescue and decrease the rate of mortality and disability.
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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of wide decompression of the optic canal for treating blindness resulting from an indirect optic nerve injury. METHODS: Forty-three patients with blindness resulting from an indirect optic nerve injury were retrospectively reviewed for preoperative vision, preoperative image, operative video, postoperative visual acuity, complications, and follow-up results. RESULTS: The 43 patients included 37 men and 6 women with an age range from 15 to 41 years (average, 31.8 years). On preoperative examination, all patients presented blindness in the involved eye. Six patients had an optic canal fracture. During the operation, a compression of the optic canal from a bony fragment was found in 1 patient, and an optic nerve sheath hematoma was found in another patient. After the operation, 6 patients developed cerebrospinal fluid rhinorrhea but recovered with conservative therapy. At the 6-month follow-up, visual acuity was improved to 3/60 in 3 patients, 5 patients could count fingers, 3 patients could see hand motions, and 3 patients retained light perception in the afflicted eye. The vision in other patients remained nonperceptive to light. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prognosis for blindness resulting from an indirect optic injury is poor, some patients have a chance to recover with enough decompression on the traumatized optic nerve. Poor results of this procedure may be related to the severity of the primary optic nerve injury.