Regional precipitation trends since 1500 CE reconstructed from calcite sublayers of a varved Mediterranean lake record (Central Pyrenees).

The Mediterranean region is expected to be highly impacted by global warming, although the uncertainty of future scenarios, particularly about precipitation patterns remains quite large. To better predict shifts in its current climate system and to test models, more regional climate records are needed spanning longer than the instrumental period. Here we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of autumn precipitation for the Central Pyrenees since 1500 CE based on annual calcite sublayer widths from Montcortès Lake (Central southern Pyrenees) varved sediments. The 500-yr calcite data series was detrended and calibrated with instrumental climate records by applying correlations and cross-correlations to regional precipitation anomalies. Highest relationships were obtained between a composite calcite series and autumn precipitation anomalies for the complete calibration period (1900-2002) and for the two halves of the full period. Applied statistical tests were significant, evidencing that the climatic signal could be reconstructed. The reconstructed precipitation anomalies show interdecadal shifts, and rainfall decrease within the coldest period of the LIA and during the second half of the 20th century, probably associated to current Global Warming. Neither increasing nor decreasing linear trends or periods of extreme precipitation events were identified. Our results are coherent with other palaeohydrological reconstructions for northern Iberian Peninsula. Correlations between the predicted autumn precipitation and the main teleconnections -NAO, ENSO and WEMO- were weak, although a potential relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern is suggested. The obtained reconstruction provides the first estimations of regional autumn precipitation shifts in the Central Pyrenees and is one of the few reconstructions that cover annual-to-century scale climate variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean region from the end of the Litte Ice Age (LIA) to the current period of Global Warming.

Increased water-use efficiency translates into contrasting growth patterns of Scots pine and sessile oak at their southern distribution limits.

In forests, the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca ) has been related to enhanced tree growth and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). However, in drought-prone areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, it is not yet clear to what extent this "fertilizing" effect may compensate for drought-induced growth reduction. We investigated tree growth and physiological responses at five Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and five sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) sites located at their southernmost distribution limits in Europe for the period 1960-2012 using annually resolved tree-ring width and δ13 C data to track ecophysiological processes. Results indicated that all 10 natural stands significantly increased their leaf intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci ), and consequently iWUE. Different trends in the theoretical gas-exchange scenarios as a response to increasing Ca were found: generally, Ci tended to increase proportionally to Ca , except for trees at the driest sites in which Ci remained constant. Ci from the oak sites displaying higher water availability tended to increase at a comparable rate to Ca . Multiple linear models fitted at site level to predict basal area increment (BAI) using iWUE and climatic variables better explained tree growth in pines (31.9%-71.4%) than in oak stands (15.8%-46.8%). iWUE was negatively linked to pine growth, whereas its effect on growth of oak differed across sites. Tree growth in the western and central oak stands was negatively related to iWUE, whereas BAI from the easternmost stand was positively associated with iWUE. Thus, some Q. petraea stands might have partially benefited from the "fertilizing" effect of rising Ca , whereas P. sylvestris stands due to their strict closure of stomata did not profit from increased iWUE and consequently showed in general growth reductions across sites. Additionally, the inter-annual variability of BAI and iWUE displayed a geographical polarity in the Mediterranean.