Factors potentially contributing to the decline of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands, 2022 and 2023.

BackgroundIn 2022 and 2023, a global outbreak of mpox affected mostly gay, bisexual and other men having sex with men (GBMSM). Outbreak control in the Netherlands included isolation, quarantine, post-exposure prophylaxis vaccination and primary preventive vaccination (PPV).AimWe describe the course of the outbreak, the vaccination programme, vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full vaccination against symptomatic disease, and trends in behaviour to generate hypotheses about factors that influenced the outbreak's decline.MethodsIn this observational study, we collected data from public health services on notified cases, number of PPV invitations and PPV doses administered. We calculated PPV uptake and coverage. Trends in behavioural data of GBMSM visiting sexual health centres were analysed for all consultations in 2022. We estimated VE using the screening method.ResultsUntil 31 December 2023, 1,294 mpox cases were reported. The outbreak peaked in early July 2022 and then declined sharply. PPV started on 25 July 2022; in total 29,851 doses were administered, 45.8% received at least one dose, 35.4% were fully vaccinated. The estimated VE was 68.2% (95% CI 4.3-89.5%). We did not observe an evident decrease in high-risk behaviour.DiscussionIt is unlikely that PPV was a driver of the outbreak's decline, as incidence started to decline well before the start of the PPV programme. The possible impact of behavioural change could not be demonstrated with the available indicators, however, the data had limitations, hampering interpretation. We hypothesise that infection-induced immunity in high-risk groups was an important factor explaining the decline.

Effectiveness of XBB.1.5 Monovalent COVID-19 Vaccines During a Period of XBB.1.5 Dominance in EU/EEA Countries, October to November 2023: A VEBIS-EHR Network Study.

Using a common protocol across seven countries in the European Union/European Economic Area, we estimated XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in booster-eligible ≥ 65-year-olds, during October-November 2023. We linked electronic records to construct retrospective cohorts and used Cox models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and derive VE. VE for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death was, respectively, 67% (95%CI: 58-74) and 67% (95%CI: 42-81) in 65- to 79-year-olds and 66% (95%CI: 57-73) and 72% (95%CI: 51-85) in ≥ 80-year-olds. Results indicate that periodic vaccination of individuals ≥ 65 years has an ongoing benefit and support current vaccination strategies in the EU/EEA.

Early COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness of XBB.1.5 vaccine against hospitalisation and admission to intensive care, the Netherlands, 9 October to 5 December 2023.

We present early vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates of the 2023 seasonal COVID-19 XBB.1.5 vaccine against COVID-19 hospitalisation and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) in previously vaccinated adults ≥ 60 years in the Netherlands. We compared vaccination status of 2,050 hospitalisations including 92 ICU admissions with age group-, sex-, region- and date-specific population vaccination coverage between 9 October and 5 December 2023. VE against hospitalisation was 70.7% (95% CI: 66.6-74.3), VE against ICU admission was 73.3% (95% CI: 42.2-87.6).

Relative vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in persons aged ≥ 65 years: results from a VEBIS network, Europe, October 2021 to July 2023.

To monitor relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) against COVID-19-related hospitalisation of the first, second and third COVID-19 booster (vs complete primary vaccination), we performed monthly Cox regression models using retrospective cohorts constructed from electronic health registries in eight European countries, October 2021-July 2023. Within 12 weeks of administration, each booster showed high rVE (≥ 70% for second and third boosters). However, as of July 2023, most of the relative benefit has waned, particularly in persons ≥ 80-years-old, while some protection remained in 65-79-year-olds.

Factors associated with COVID-19 autumn 2022 booster uptake in the Netherlands among older adults aged ≥ 60 years and younger adults with chronic conditions.

BACKGROUND: A booster with bivalent COVID-19 vaccine was offered in the Netherlands in autumn, 2022. We aimed to investigate vaccine uptake during the autumn 2022 booster round among the population subgroups at risk for severe COVID-19 that were specifically targeted by this campaign: the medical risk group aged 18-59 years and individuals ≥ 60 years. We calculated booster uptake in both populations and analyzed determinants of booster uptake among those who had received at least one prior COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: Having had an autumn 2022 booster dose was defined as having received a COVID-19 vaccination between 19 September 2022 and 7 March 2023. The study population included individuals who received at least one previous COVID-19 vaccination. National registries of sociodemographic determinants and COVID-19 vaccination were linked by a unique person identifier. Voting proportions for political parties were included at neighborhood level. Determinants of COVID-19 vaccine autumn booster uptake were ranked by importance by random forest analyses. RESULTS: Booster uptake was 68 % among those aged ≥ 60 and 30 % among those aged 18-59 years with a medical risk factor for severe disease. For both target groups the most important determinant for booster uptake was age (15 % in 18-29 years to 72 % in 80 + years). Voting proportions for progressive liberal political parties ranked second in the random forest analysis in both groups, with an increasing proportion of votes associated with higher uptake. In the 60 + group, household type ranked third, with highest vaccine uptake among married couples without children (72 %) and the lowest uptake among unmarried couples with children (47 %). In the medical risk group, migration status ranked third. Migrants with two parents born abroad had the lowest uptake (18 %), whereas migrants with both parents born in the Netherlands had the highest uptake (35 %). CONCLUSION: The target group of people aged ≥ 60 years was much better reached than the target group of people with a medical risk aged 18-59 years. Uptake varied considerably among subgroups in both target groups. The findings of this study can be used in future vaccination strategies as well as for further research to better understand the drivers and barriers of vaccine uptake among the subgroups with notably low uptake.

High-resolution geospatial mapping of zero-dose and under-immunized children following Nigeria's 2021 multiple indicator cluster survey/national immunization coverage survey (MICS/NICS).

BACKGROUND: The "zero-dose" children are those without any routine vaccination or lacking the first dose of the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine. As per 2022 WHO/UNICEF estimates, globally, Nigeria has the highest number of zero-dose with over 2.3 million unvaccinated. METHODS: We used data from the 2021 Nigeria Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey - National Immunisation Coverage Survey to identify zero-dose and under-immunized children. Geospatial modelling techniques were employed to determine the prevalence of zero-dose children and predict risk areas with under-immunized at a high resolution of 1x1 km. RESULTS: Both zero-dose and under-immunized children are more prevalent in socially deprived groups. Univariate and multivariate Bayesian analyses showed positive correlations between the prevalence of zero-dose and under-immunized children with factors like stunting, contraceptive prevalence, and literacy. The prevalence of zero-dose and under-immunized children varies significantly by region and ethnicity, with higher rates observed in the country's northern parts. Significant heterogeneity in the distribution of under-vaccinated children was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Nigeria needs to enhance its immunization system and coverage. Geospatial modelling can help deliver vaccines effectively to underserved communities. By adopting this approach, countries can ensure equitable vaccine access and contribute to global vaccination objectives.

Neighbourhood sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the Netherlands: an ecological analysis.

BACKGROUND: While overall COVID-19 vaccine uptake is high in the Netherlands, it lags behind in certain subpopulations. AIM: We aimed to explore the characteristics of groups with lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake at neighbourhood level to inform the strategy to improve uptake and guide research into barriers for vaccination. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using national vaccination register and socio-demographic data at neighbourhood level. Using univariate and multivariable generalized additive models we examined the (potentially non-linear) effect of each determinant on uptake. We focused on those aged 50 years and older, since they are at highest risk of severe disease. RESULTS: In those over 50 years of age, a higher proportion of individuals with a non-Western migration background and higher voting proportions for right-wing Christian and conservative political parties were at neighbourhood level univariately associated with lower COVID-19 vaccine uptake. In contrast, higher socioeconomic status and higher voting proportions for right-wing liberal, progressive liberal and Christian middle political parties were associated with higher uptake. Multivariable results differed from univariate results in that a higher voting proportion for progressive left-wing political parties was also associated with higher uptake. In addition, with regard to migration background only a Turkish background remained significant. CONCLUSION: We identified determinants associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake at neighbourhood level and observed heterogeneity in uptake between different subpopulations. Since the goal of vaccination is not only to reduce suffering and death by improving the average uptake, but also to reduce health inequity, it is important to focus on subpopulations with lower uptake.

Field Epidemiology: Fit for the future.

In recent years, field epidemiologists have embraced rapidly evolving digital tools, data sources and technologies, and collaborated with an ever-growing field of scientific specialisms. The COVID-19 pandemic put field epidemiology under unprecedented demand and scrutiny. As the COVID-19 emergency recedes, it is timely to reflect on the core values of our profession and the unique challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. In November 2022, alumni of the European Programme for Intervention Epidemiology Training (EPIET) and the European Public Health Microbiology (EUPHEM) training programme celebrated 25 years of EPIET, and the present and future of field epidemiology was discussed. The output was recorded and qualitatively analysed. This Perspective reflects the authors' interpretation of the discussion. We should reaffirm our commitment to field epidemiology's core strengths: competence and rigour in epidemiology, surveillance, outbreak investigation and applied research, leading to timely and actionable evidence for public health. Our future success will be defined by an ability to adapt, collaborate, harness innovation, communicate and, ultimately, by our tangible impact on protecting and improving health.

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in The Netherlands: A Nationwide Registry-Based Study.

By September 2022, the uptake of at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in the Dutch adult population was 84%. Ecological studies have indicated a lower uptake in certain population groups. We aimed to investigate determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the Netherlands at individual level to evaluate and optimize implementation of the vaccination program and generate hypotheses for research on drivers of, and barriers to, vaccination. A retrospective database study was performed including the entire Dutch population ≥ 18. Vaccination data (5 January 2021-18 November 2021) were at individual levels linked to sociodemographic data. Random forest analyses ranked sociodemographic determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake. The most important determinant was age; uptake increased until the age of 80 (67% in 18-35 years, 92% in 67-79 years, and 88% in those > 80). Personal income and socioeconomic position ranked second and third, followed by migration status. Uptake was lower among individuals in the lowest income group (69%), those receiving social benefits (56%), and individuals with two parents born abroad (59%). Our finding that age is the most important determinant for uptake likely reflects the prioritisation of elderly in the programme and the general understanding of their increased vulnerability. However, our findings also reveal important other disparities in vaccine uptake. How to best address this inequity in future vaccination campaigns requires further research.

Effects of COVID-19 vaccination and previous infection on Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection and relation with serology.

An increasing proportion of the population has acquired immunity through COVID-19 vaccination and previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, i.e., hybrid immunity, possibly affecting the risk of new infection. We aim to estimate the protective effect of previous infections and vaccinations on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection, using data from 43,257 adult participants in a prospective community-based cohort study in the Netherlands, collected between 10 January 2022 and 1 September 2022. Our results show that, for participants with 2, 3 or 4 prior immunizing events (vaccination or previous infection), hybrid immunity is more protective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron than vaccine-induced immunity, up to at least 30 weeks after the last immunizing event. Differences in risk of infection are partly explained by differences in anti-Spike RBD (S) antibody concentration, which is associated with risk of infection in a dose-response manner. Among participants with hybrid immunity, with one previous pre-Omicron infection, we do not observe a relevant difference in risk of Omicron infection by sequence of vaccination(s) and infection. Additional immunizing events increase the protection against infection, but not above the level of the first weeks after the previous event.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on mortality by COVID-19 and on mortality by other causes, the Netherlands, January 2021-January 2022.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 mortality, and to explore whether an increased risk of non-COVID-19 mortality exists in the weeks following a COVID-19 vaccine dose. METHODS: National registries of causes of death, COVID-19 vaccination, specialized health care and long-term care reimbursements were linked by a unique person identifier using data from 1 January 2021 to 31 January 2022. We used Cox regression with calendar time as underlying time scale to, firstly, estimate VE against COVID-19 mortality after primary and first booster vaccination, per month since vaccination and, secondly, estimate risk of non-COVID-19 mortality in the 5 or 8 weeks following a first, second or first booster dose, adjusting for birth year, sex, medical risk group and country of origin. RESULTS: VE against COVID-19 mortality was > 90 % for all age groups two months after completion of the primary series. VE gradually decreased thereafter, to around 80 % at 7-8 months post-primary series for most groups, and around 60 % for elderly receiving a high level of long-term care and for people aged 90+ years. Following a first booster dose, the VE increased to > 85 % in all groups. The risk of non-COVID-19 mortality was lower or similar in the 5 or 8 weeks following a first dose compared to no vaccination, as well as following a second dose compared to one dose and a booster compared to two doses, for all age and long-term care groups. CONCLUSION: At the population level, COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of COVID-19 mortality and no increased risk of death from other causes was observed.

Number of COVID-19 hospitalisations averted by vaccination: Estimates for the Netherlands, January 6, 2021 through August 30, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines against COVID-19 have proven effective in preventing COVID-19 hospitalisation. In this study, we aimed to quantify part of the public health impact of COVID-19 vaccination by estimating the number of averted hospitalisations. We present results from the beginning of the vaccination campaign ('entire period', January 6, 2021) and a subperiod starting at August 2, 2021 ('subperiod') when all adults had the opportunity to complete their primary series, both until August 30, 2022. METHODS: Using calendar-time specific vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates and vaccine coverage (VC) by round (primary series, first booster and second booster) and the observed number of COVID-19 associated hospitalisations, we estimated the number of averted hospitalisations per age group for the two study periods. From January 25, 2022, when registration of the indication of hospitalisation started, hospitalisations not causally related to COVID-19 were excluded. RESULTS: In the entire period, an estimated 98,170 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 96,123-99,928) hospitalisations were averted, of which 90,753 (95 % CI 88,790-92,531) were in the subperiod, representing 57.0 % and 67.9 % of all estimated hospital admissions. Estimated averted hospitalisations were lowest for 12-49-year-olds and highest for 70-79-year-olds. More admissions were averted in the Delta period (72.3 %) than in the Omicron period (63.4 %). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 vaccination prevented a large number of hospitalisations. Although the counterfactual of having had no vaccinations while maintaining the same public health measures is unrealistic, these findings underline the public health importance of the vaccination campaign to policy makers and the public.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Delta and Omicron Infection and Infectiousness Within Households in the Netherlands Between July 2021 and August 2022.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection (VE-infection) and against further transmission (VE-infectiousness) in a household setting during Delta and Omicron. Knowing these effects can aid policy makers in deciding which groups to prioritize for vaccination. METHODS: Participants with a positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test were asked about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination status and SARS-CoV-2 testing of their household members 1 month later. VE-infection and VE-infectiousness were estimated using generalized estimating equation logistic regression adjusting for age, vaccination status, calendar week, and household size. RESULTS: A total of 3399 questionnaires concerning 4105 household members were included. During the Delta period, VE-infection and VE-infectiousness of primary series were 47% (95% confidence interval [CI], -27% to 78%) and 70% (95% CI, 28% to 87%), respectively. During the Omicron period, VE-infection was -36% (95% CI, -88% to 1%) for primary series and -28% (95% CI, -77% to 7%) for booster vaccination. VE-infectiousness was 45% (95% CI, -14% to 74%) for primary series and 64% (95% CI, 31% to 82%) for booster vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that COVID-19 vaccination is effective against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Delta and against infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron. Estimation of VE against infection with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron was limited by several factors. Our results support booster vaccination for those in close contact with vulnerable people to prevent transmission.

Vaccine effectiveness of primary and booster COVID-19 vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Netherlands from July 12, 2021 to June 6, 2022: A prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of primary and booster vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 infection overall and in four risk groups defined by age and medical risk condition during the Delta and Omicron BA.1/BA.2 periods. METHODS: VAccine Study COvid-19 is an ongoing prospective cohort study among Dutch adults. The primary end point was a self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 test from July 12, 2021 to June 06, 2022. The analyses included only participants without a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection based on a positive test or serology. We used Cox proportional hazard models with vaccination status as the time-varying exposure and adjustment for age, sex, educational level, and medical risk condition. RESULTS: A total of 37,170 participants (mean age 57 years) were included. In the Delta period, VE <6 weeks after the primary vaccination was 80% (95% confidence interval 69-87) and decreased to 71% (65-77) after 6 months. VE increased to 96% (86-99) shortly after the first booster vaccination. In the Omicron period, these estimates were 46% (22-63), 25% (8-39), and 57% (52-62), respectively. For the Omicron period, an interaction term between vaccination status and risk group significantly improved the model (P <0.001), with generally lower VEs for those with a medical risk condition. CONCLUSION: Our results show the benefit of booster vaccinations against infection, also in risk groups; although, the additional protection wanes quite rapidly.

Higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 infection than of BA.2 infection after previous BA.1 infection, the Netherlands, 2 May to 24 July 2022.

BackgroundIn summer 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.5 became dominant in Europe. In vitro studies have shown a large reduction of antibody neutralisation for this variant.AimWe aimed to investigate differences in protection from previous infection and/or vaccination against infection with Omicron BA.4/5 vs BA.2.MethodsWe employed a case-only approach including positive PCR tests from community testing between 2 May and 24 July 2022 that were tested for S gene target failure (SGTF), which distinguishes BA.4/5 from BA.2 infection. Previous infections were categorised by variant using whole genome sequencing or SGTF. We estimated by logistic regression the association of SGTF with vaccination and/or previous infection, and of SGTF of the current infection with the variant of the previous infection, adjusting for testing week, age group and sex.ResultsThe percentage of registered previous SARS-CoV-2 infections was higher among 19,836 persons infected with Omicron BA.4/5 than among 7,052 persons infected with BA.2 (31.3% vs 20.0%). Adjusting for testing week, age group and sex, the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) was 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3-1.5). The distribution of vaccination status did not differ for BA.4/5 vs BA.2 infections (aOR = 1.1 for primary and booster vaccination). Among persons with a previous infection, those currently infected with BA4/5 had a shorter interval between infections, and the previous infection was more often caused by BA.1, compared with those currently infected with BA.2 (aOR = 1.9; 95% CI: 1.5-2.6).ConclusionOur results suggest immunity induced by BA.1 is less effective against BA.4/5 infection than against BA.2 infection.

Effectiveness of bivalent mRNA booster vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection, the Netherlands, September to December 2022.

We used data of 32,542 prospective cohort study participants who previously received primary and one or two monovalent booster COVID-19 vaccinations. Between 26 September and 19 December 2022, relative effectiveness of bivalent original/Omicron BA.1 vaccination against self-reported Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection was 31% in 18-59-year-olds and 14% in 60-85-year-olds. Protection of Omicron infection was higher than of bivalent vaccination without prior infection. Although bivalent booster vaccination increases protection against COVID-19 hospitalisations, we found limited added benefit in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Elevated risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants compared with Alpha variant in vaccinated individuals.

The extent to which severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) break through infection- or vaccine-induced immunity is not well understood. We analyzed 28,578 sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from individuals with known immune status obtained through national community testing in the Netherlands from March to August 2021. We found evidence of an increased risk of infection by the Beta (B.1.351), Gamma (P.1), or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants compared with the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant after vaccination. No clear differences were found between vaccines. However, the effect was larger in the first 14 to 59 days after complete vaccination compared with ≥60 days. In contrast to vaccine-induced immunity, there was no increased risk for reinfection with Beta, Gamma, or Delta variants relative to the Alpha variant in individuals with infection-induced immunity.

The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906-1920: a historical analysis.

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.