Avoidable hospitalization after family physician and rural health insurance: interrupted time series and regression analyses, Tehran province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Studying the effect of primary health care development when simultaneously implemented with health insurance schemes assesses effectiveness and use of health care services and gives us insight on how to develop such interventions in different countries. AIM: To analyze the impact of health insurance and the family physician program on total hospitalizations, and the relation between avoidable hospitalizations and access to family physicians among the rural population in Iran. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of monthly hospitalization rates between the years of 2003 and 2014 to assess the immediate and gradual effects of these reforms on total hospitalization rates in the rural areas of Tehran province. In addition, we used a sample of 22 570 hospitalizations between 2006 and 2013 to develop a logistic regression model to measure the association between access to a family physician and avoidable hospitalizations. FINDINGS: ITS analysis showed that there was an immediate increase of about 1.96 hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants (P<0.0001, CI=1.58, 2.34) hospitalization rates after the reforms. This was followed by a significant increase of about 0.089 per 1000 inhabitants (P<0.0001, CI=0.07, 0.1). Hospitalization increase continued up to four years after the policy implementation. Following that, hospitalization rates decreased among the rural population (a decrease of 0.066 per 1000, P<0.0001, CI=-0.084, -0.048). Studying the hospitalizations that occurred between 2006 and 2013 showed that there were 4106 avoidable hospitalizations from among a sample of 22 570 hospitalizations. Results of logistic regression models including gender, age and access to family physician variables showed that there was no statistical relation between access to a family physician and avoidable hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Reforms had access effect and caused increased hospital services uses in people with unmet needs. Also the reforms did not decrease avoidable hospitalizations, and therefore had no efficiency effect.

The Effect of Access to Primary Care Physicians on Avoidable Hospitalizations: A Time Series Study in Rural Areas of Tehran Province, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Avoidable hospitalizations (AHs) are defined as hospitalizations that could have been prevented through timely and effective services. AHs are, therefore, an indicator used to evaluate the access and effectiveness of primary health care services. METHODS: A retrospective time-series study spanning 8 years (2006-2013) was conducted to determine the relationship between AHs and gender, age, and access to primary health care physicians in rural areas in Tehran province, the capital of Iran. The total number of avoidable hospitalizations was 22,570; logistic regression was estimated for each year separately. RESULTS: Total hospitalizations and AHs increased during the study period, especially during the first 3 years of the study. AHs, as a percentage of total hospitalizations, did not change significantly throughout the study years. This value was 22.3% during the first year of study and varied between 17% and 19.6% from 2007 to 2013. No statistically significant relationship was seen between AH occurrence and access to a physician during the study years. CONCLUSION: Increasing access to primary health care physicians cannot necessarily result in decreased AHs. Considering the factors influencing AHs while designing and implementing the family physicians program is important to achieve the expected results regarding the effectiveness of primary health care services.

Does rural health system reform aimed at improving access to primary health care affect hospitalization rates? An interrupted time series analysis of national policy reforms in Iran.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effects of rural health insurance and family physician reforms on hospitalization rates in Iran. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis of national monthly hospitalization rates in Iran (2003-2014), starting from two years before the intervention. Segmented regression analysis was used to assess the effects of the reforms on hospitalization rates. RESULTS: The analyses showed that hospitalization rates increased one year after the initiation of the reforms: 1.55 (95% CI: 1.24-1.86) additional hospitalizations per 1000 rural inhabitants per month ('immediate effect'). This increase was followed by a further gradual increase of 0.034 per 1000 inhabitants per month (95% CI: 0.02-0.04). The gradual monthly increase continued for two years after the reforms. The higher hospitalization rates were maintained in the following years. We observed a significant increase in hospitalization rates at a national level in rural areas that continued for over 10 years after the policy implementation. CONCLUSION: Primary health care reforms are often proposed for their efficiency outcomes (i.e. reduction in costs and use of hospitals) as well as their impact on improving health outcomes. We demonstrated that in populations with unmet needs, such reforms are likely to substantially increase hospitalization rates. This is an important consideration for successful design and implementation of interventions aimed at achieving universal health coverage in low- and middle-income countries.