AI-assisted selection of mating pairs through simulation-based optimized progeny allocation strategies in plant breeding.

Emerging technologies such as genomic selection have been applied to modern plant and animal breeding to increase the speed and efficiency of variety release. However, breeding requires decisions regarding parent selection and mating pairs, which significantly impact the ultimate genetic gain of a breeding scheme. The selection of appropriate parents and mating pairs to increase genetic gain while maintaining genetic diversity is still an urgent need that breeders are facing. This study aimed to determine the best progeny allocation strategies by combining future-oriented simulations and numerical black-box optimization for an improved selection of parents and mating pairs. In this study, we focused on optimizing the allocation of progenies, and the breeding process was regarded as a black-box function whose input is a set of parameters related to the progeny allocation strategies and whose output is the ultimate genetic gain of breeding schemes. The allocation of progenies to each mating pair was parameterized according to a softmax function, whose input is a weighted sum of multiple features for the allocation, including expected genetic variance of progenies and selection criteria such as different types of breeding values, to balance genetic gains and genetic diversity optimally. The weighting parameters were then optimized by the black-box optimization algorithm called StoSOO via future-oriented breeding simulations. Simulation studies to evaluate the potential of our novel method revealed that the breeding strategy based on optimized weights attained almost 10% higher genetic gain than that with an equal allocation of progenies to all mating pairs within just four generations. Among the optimized strategies, those considering the expected genetic variance of progenies could maintain the genetic diversity throughout the breeding process, leading to a higher ultimate genetic gain than those without considering it. These results suggest that our novel method can significantly improve the speed and efficiency of variety development through optimized decisions regarding the selection of parents and mating pairs. In addition, by changing simulation settings, our future-oriented optimization framework for progeny allocation strategies can be easily implemented into general breeding schemes, contributing to accelerated plant and animal breeding with high efficiency.

Assessing the Potential for Genome-Assisted Breeding in Red Perilla Using Quantitative Trait Locus Analysis and Genomic Prediction.

Red perilla is an important medicinal plant used in Kampo medicine. The development of elite varieties of this species is urgently required. Medicinal compounds are generally considered target traits in medicinal plant breeding; however, selection based on compound phenotypes (i.e., conventional selection) is expensive and time consuming. Here, we propose genomic selection (GS) and marker-assisted selection (MAS), which use marker information for selection, as suitable selection methods for medicinal plants, and we evaluate the effectiveness of these methods in perilla breeding. Three breeding populations generated from crosses between one red and three green perilla genotypes were used to elucidate the genetic mechanisms underlying the production of major medicinal compounds using quantitative trait locus analysis and evaluating the accuracy of genomic prediction (GP). We found that GP had a sufficiently high accuracy for all traits, confirming that GS is an effective method for perilla breeding. Moreover, the three populations showed varying degrees of segregation, suggesting that using these populations in breeding may simultaneously enhance multiple target traits. This study contributes to research on the genetic mechanisms of the major medicinal compounds of red perilla, as well as the breeding efficiency of this medicinal plant.

Random regression for modeling soybean plant response to irrigation changes using time-series multispectral data.

Plant response to drought is an important yield-related trait under abiotic stress, but the method for measuring and modeling plant responses in a time series has not been fully established. The objective of this study was to develop a method to measure and model plant response to irrigation changes using time-series multispectral (MS) data. We evaluated 178 soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) accessions under three irrigation treatments at the Arid Land Research Center, Tottori University, Japan in 2019, 2020 and 2021. The irrigation treatments included W5: watering for 5 d followed by no watering 5 d, W10: watering for 10 d followed by no watering 10 d, D10: no watering for 10 d followed by watering 10 d, and D: no watering. To capture the plant responses to irrigation changes, time-series MS data were collected by unmanned aerial vehicle during the irrigation/non-irrigation switch of each irrigation treatment. We built a random regression model (RRM) for each of combination of treatment by year using the time-series MS data. To test the accuracy of the information captured by RRM, we evaluated the coefficient of variation (CV) of fresh shoot weight of all accessions under a total of nine different drought conditions as an indicator of plant's stability under drought stresses. We built a genomic prediction model (MTRRM model) using the genetic random regression coefficients of RRM as secondary traits and evaluated the accuracy of each model for predicting CV. In 2020 and 2021,the mean prediction accuracies of MTRRM models built in the changing irrigation treatments (r = 0.44 and 0.49, respectively) were higher than that in the continuous drought treatment (r = 0.34 and 0.44, respectively) in the same year. When the CV was predicted using the MTRRM model across 2020 and 2021 in the changing irrigation treatment, the mean prediction accuracy (r = 0.46) was 42% higher than that of the simple genomic prediction model (r =0.32). The results suggest that this RRM method using the time-series MS data can effectively capture the genetic variation of plant response to drought.

Bayesian optimization of multivariate genomic prediction models based on secondary traits for improved accuracy gains and phenotyping costs.

KEY MESSAGE: We propose a novel approach to the Bayesian optimization of multivariate genomic prediction models based on secondary traits to improve accuracy gains and phenotyping costs via efficient Pareto frontier estimation. Multivariate genomic prediction based on secondary traits, such as data from various omics technologies including high-throughput phenotyping (e.g., unmanned aerial vehicle-based remote sensing), has attracted much attention because it offers improved accuracy gains compared with genomic prediction based only on marker genotypes. Although there is a trade-off between accuracy gains and phenotyping costs of secondary traits, no attempt has been made to optimize these trade-offs. In this study, we propose a novel approach to optimize multivariate genomic prediction models for secondary traits measurable at early growth stages for improved accuracy gains and phenotyping costs. The proposed approach employs Bayesian optimization for efficient Pareto frontier estimation, representing the maximum accuracy at a given cost. The proposed approach successfully estimated the optimal secondary trait combinations across a range of costs while providing genomic predictions for only about [Formula: see text] of all possible combinations. The simulation results reflecting the characteristics of each scenario of the simulated target traits showed that the obtained optimal combinations were reasonable. Analysis of real-time target trait data showed that the proposed multivariate genomic prediction model had significantly superior accuracy compared to the univariate genomic prediction model.

Allelic composition of carotenoid metabolic genes in 13 founders influences carotenoid composition in juice sac tissues of fruits among Japanese citrus breeding population.

To enrich carotenoids, especially ß-cryptoxanthin, in juice sac tissues of fruits via molecular breeding in citrus, allele mining was utilized to dissect allelic variation of carotenoid metabolic genes and identify an optimum allele on the target loci characterized by expression quantitative trait (eQTL) analysis. SNPs of target carotenoid metabolic genes in 13 founders of the Japanese citrus breeding population were explored using the SureSelect target enrichment method. An independent allele was determined based on the presence or absence of reliable SNPs, using trio analysis to confirm inheritability between parent and offspring. Among the 13 founders, there were 7 PSY alleles, 7 HYb alleles, 11 ZEP alleles, 5 NCED alleles, and 4 alleles for the eQTL that control the transcription levels of PDS and ZDS among the ancestral species, indicating that some founders acquired those alleles from them. The carotenoid composition data of 263 breeding pedigrees in juice sac tissues revealed that the phenotypic variance of carotenoid composition was similar to that in the 13 founders, whereas the mean of total carotenoid content increased. This increase in total carotenoid content correlated with the increase in either or both ß-cryptoxanthin and violaxanthin in juice sac tissues. Bayesian statistical analysis between allelic composition of target genes and carotenoid composition in 263 breeding pedigrees indicated that PSY-a and ZEP-e alleles at PSY and ZEP loci had strong positive effects on increasing the total carotenoid content, including ß-cryptoxanthin and violaxanthin, in juice sac tissues. Moreover, the pyramiding of these alleles also increased the ß-cryptoxanthin content. Interestingly, the offset interaction between the alleles with increasing and decreasing effects on carotenoid content and the epistatic interaction among carotenoid metabolic genes were observed and these interactions complexed carotenoid profiles in breeding population. These results revealed that allele composition would highly influence the carotenoid composition in citrus fruits. The allelic genotype information for the examined carotenoid metabolic genes in major citrus varieties and the trio-tagged SNPs to discriminate the optimum alleles (PSY-a and ZEP-e) from the rest would promise citrus breeders carotenoid enrichment in fruit via molecular breeding.

Choosing the optimal population for a genome-wide association study: A simulation of whole-genome sequences from rice.

A genome-wide association study (GWAS) needs to have a suitable population. The factors that affect a GWAS (e.g. population structure, sample size, and sequence analysis and field testing costs) need to be considered. Mixed populations containing subpopulations of different genetic backgrounds may be suitable populations. We conducted simulation experiments to see if a population with high genetic diversity, such as a diversity panel, should be added to a target population, especially when the target population harbors small genetic diversity. The target population was 112 accessions of Oryza sativa L. subsp. japonica, mainly developed in Japan. We combined the target population with three populations that had higher genetic diversity. These were 100 indica accessions, 100 japonica accessions, and 100 accessions with various genetic backgrounds. The results showed that the GWAS's power with a mixed population was generally higher than with a separate population. Also, the optimal GWAS populations varied depending on the fixation index (FST ) of the quantitative trait nucleotides (QTNs) and the polymorphism of QTNs in each population. When a QTN was polymorphic in a target population, a target population combined with a higher diversity population improved the QTN's detection power. By investigating FST and the expected heterozygosity (He ) as factors influencing the detection power, we showed that single nucleotide polymorphisms with high FST or low He are less likely to be detected by GWAS with mixed populations. Sequenced or genotyped germplasm collections can improve the GWAS's detection power by using a subset of the collections with a target population.

Dissecting the Genetic Architecture of Biofuel-Related Traits in a Sorghum Breeding Population.

In sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], hybrid cultivars for the biofuel industry are desired. Along with selection based on testcross performance, evaluation of the breeding population per se is also important for the success of hybrid breeding. In addition to additive genetic effects, non-additive (i.e., dominance and epistatic) effects are expected to contribute to the performance of early generations. Unfortunately, studies on early generations in sorghum breeding programs are limited. In this study, we analyzed a breeding population for bioenergy sorghum, which was previously developed based on testcross performance, to compare genomic selection models both trained on and evaluated for the per se performance of the 3rd generation S0 individuals. Of over 200 ancestral inbred accessions in the base population, only 13 founders contributed to the 3rd generation as progenitors. Compared to the founders, the performances of the population per se were improved for target traits. The total genetic variance within the S0 generation progenies themselves for all traits was mainly additive, although non-additive variances contributed to each trait to some extent. For genomic selection, linear regression models explicitly considering all genetic components showed a higher predictive ability than other linear and non-linear models. Although the number and effect distribution of underlying loci was different among the traits, the influence of priors for marker effects was relatively small. These results indicate the importance of considering non-additive effects for dissecting the genetic architecture of early breeding generations and predicting the performance per se.

RAINBOW: Haplotype-based genome-wide association study using a novel SNP-set method.

Difficulty in detecting rare variants is one of the problems in conventional genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The problem is closely related to the complex gene compositions comprising multiple alleles, such as haplotypes. Several single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set approaches have been proposed to solve this problem. These methods, however, have been rarely discussed in connection with haplotypes. In this study, we developed a novel SNP-set method named "RAINBOW" and applied the method to haplotype-based GWAS by regarding a haplotype block as a SNP-set. Combining haplotype block estimation and SNP-set GWAS, haplotype-based GWAS can be conducted without prior information of haplotypes. We prepared 100 datasets of simulated phenotypic data and real marker genotype data of Oryza sativa subsp. indica, and performed GWAS of the datasets. We compared the power of our method, the conventional single-SNP GWAS, the conventional haplotype-based GWAS, and the conventional SNP-set GWAS. Our proposed method was shown to be superior to these in three aspects: (1) controlling false positives; (2) in detecting causal variants without relying on the linkage disequilibrium if causal variants were genotyped in the dataset; and (3) it showed greater power than the other methods, i.e., it was able to detect causal variants that were not detected by the others, primarily when the causal variants were located very close to each other, and the directions of their effects were opposite. By using the SNP-set approach as in this study, we expect that detecting not only rare variants but also genes with complex mechanisms, such as genes with multiple causal variants, can be realized. RAINBOW was implemented as an R package named "RAINBOWR" and is available from CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/RAINBOWR/index.html) and GitHub (https://github.com/KosukeHamazaki/RAINBOWR).