Incidence of Mortality among Under-Five-Year-Old Children Born to Women Living with HIV and Those Born to Women Not Living with HIV in Botswana: A 5-Year Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality is a core indicator for child health and wellness. Botswana reported an under-five-year-old children (UFC) mortality rate of 48 deaths per 1000 live births in 2017 against 152 deaths per 1000 live births in 1971. This was a commendable accomplishment. However, given the current country situation whereby 23% of children are born to women living with HIV, the incidence of mortality among UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV and their survival are better health metrics to inform decision making. Nevertheless, such data are still very scarce in Botswana. The study's objective was to estimate the incidence of UFC mortality among children born to women living with and not living with HIV and to compare UFC survival between the two groups. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of mortality among UFC was conducted in Botswana, including all UFC born between January 2014 and June 2018. Data were extracted from the National Under-Five Mortality Audit Committee (NUFMAC) database using a standardized data collection tool. The incidence rate of UFC death was estimated as a function of the duration from birth to death. Survival functions of UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV were plotted and compared using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: The overall incidence of UFC death was 4.63/1000 child months (CM) (95% CI 4.36-4.90). The incidence of UFC death among children born to women living with HIV was 6.96/1000 CM (95% CI 6.47-7.45) and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 4.34/1000 CM (95% CI 4.03-4.65). The overall average and standard error (SE) time to event/death for UFC born to women living with and not living with HIV was 54.80 (0.18) months. The mean (SE) time to death for UFC born to women living with HIV was 52.79 (0.41) months and that of UFC born to women not living with HIV was 55.44 (0.19) months (log-rank X 2 = 37.59, p < 0.001). Prematurity or low birth weight was the leading cause of UFC death in both groups; but, it was higher in UFC born to women not living with HIV subgroup than their counterparts. Four cases only or 0.5% of the 806 death cases reported by reporting physicians were attributable to HIV-related complications. CONCLUSION: Despite the commendable efforts made in reducing UFC death, the incidence of UFC death among UFC born to women living with HIV in Botswana is still higher, and their survival is shorter compared to UFC born to women not living with HIV. Child survival interventions should prioritize UFC born to women living with HIV to improve their survival.

The Impact of China's Lockdown Policy on the Incidence of COVID-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Policy changes are often necessary to contain the detrimental impact of epidemics such as those brought about by coronavirus disease (COVID-19). In the earlier phases of the emergence of COVID-19, China was the first to impose strict restrictions on movement (lockdown) on January 23rd, 2020. A strategy whose effectiveness in curtailing COVID-19 was yet to be determined. We, therefore, sought to study the impact of the lockdown in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. METHODS: Daily cases of COVID-19 that occurred in China which were registered between January 12th and March 30th, 2020, were extracted from the Johns Hopkins CSSE team COVID-19 ArcGIS® dashboards. Daily cases reported were used as data points in the series. Two interrupted series models were run: one with an interruption point of 23 January 2020 (model 1) and the other with a 14-day deferred interruption point of 6th February (model 2). For both models, the magnitude of change (before and after) and linear trend analyses were measured, and ß-coefficients reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the precision. RESULTS: Seventy-eight data points were used in the analysis. There was an 11% versus a 163% increase in daily cases in models 1 and 2, respectively, in the preintervention periods (p ≤ 0.001). Comparing the period immediately following the intervention points to the counterfactual, there was a daily increase of 2,746% (p < 0.001) versus a decline of 207% (p = 0.802) in model 2. However, in both scenarios, there was a statistically significant drop in the daily cases predicted for this data and beyond when comparing the preintervention periods and postintervention periods (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There was a significant decrease the COVID-19 daily cases reported in China following the institution of a lockdown, and therefore, lockdown may be used to curtail the burden of COVID-19.

Sociodemographic Predictors of HIV Infection among Pregnant Women in Botswana: Cross-Sectional Study at 7 Health Facilities.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence and sociodemographic predictors of HIV among pregnant women in Botswana. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study of randomly enrolled women aged 18 to 49 years, attending 7 health facilities in Botswana. Data were gathered from November 2017 to March 2018 and analyzed using SPSS version 24. RESULT: Of the 429 women enrolled, 407 (96.4%) were included in the analysis. The HIV prevalence was 17%; 69 of 407 (95% CI: 13.4- 21.0). Women aged 35 to 49 years had higher HIV prevalence than those 18 to 24 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.2; 95% CI: 2.7-14.4). Illiterate and elementary school educated women had higher HIV prevalence than those with a tertiary education (AOR = 8.5; 95% CI: 1.8-39.1). Those with a history of alcohol intake had a higher HIV prevalence than those without (AOR = 2.6; 95% CI: 1.3-5.3). CONCLUSION: HIV prevalence was lower than it was in 2011. Age, level of education, and history of alcohol intake were strong predictors for HIV infection calling for targeted behavioral change interventions.

Overweight and Obesity among Recipients of Antiretroviral Therapy at HIV Clinics in Gaborone, Botswana: Factors Associated with Change in Body Mass Index.

BACKGROUND: Factors associated with overweight/obesity among antiretroviral therapy (ART) recipients have not been sufficiently studied in Botswana. OBJECTIVES: To: (i) estimate the prevalence and trends in overweight/obesity by duration of exposure to ART among recipients, (ii) assess changes in BMI categories among ART recipients between their first clinic visit (BMI-1) and their last clinic visit (BMI-2), (iii) identify ART regimen that predicts overweight/obesity better than the others and factors associated with BMI changes among ART recipients. METHODS: A 12-year retrospective record-based review was conducted. Potential predictors of BMI change among patients after at least three years of ART exposure were examined using a multiple logistic regression model. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. ART regimens, duration of exposure to ART, and recipients' demographic and biomedical characteristics including the presence or absence of diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities (DRC), defined as any morbidity associated with type 2 diabetes as described in the international statistical classification of diseases and related health problems (ICD-10-CM) codebook index, were investigated as potential predictors of overweight/obesity. RESULTS: Twenty-nine percent of recipients were overweight, 16.6% had obesity of whom 2.4% were morbidly-obese at the last clinic visit. Overweight/obese recipients were more likely to be female, to have DRC and less likely to have CD4 count between 201 and 249 cells/mm3. Neither the first-line nor the second-, third-line ART regimens predicted overweight/obesity better than the other and neither did the duration of exposure to ART. No significant linear trends were observed in the prevalence of overweight/obesity by the duration of exposure to ART. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the ART regimens studied have a comparable effect on overweight/obesity and that the duration of exposure does not affect the outcome. This study calls for further research to elucidate the relative contribution of various factors to BMI change among recipients, including ART regimens.

Prevalence of G6PD deficiency and associated haematological parameters in children from Botswana.

Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency is commonly seen in malaria endemic areas as it is known to confer a selective advantage against malaria. Recently, we reported a high proportion of asymptomatic reservoir of Plasmodium vivax in Botswana, that calls for intervention with primaquine to achieve radical cure of vivax malaria. Considering that individuals with this enzyme deficiency are at risk of haemolysis following primaquine treatment, assessment of the population for the relative frequency of G6PD deficiency is imperative. Samples from 3019 children from all the districts of Botswana were successfully genotyped for polymorphisms at positions 202 and 376 of the G6PD gene. Haematological parameters were also measured. The overall population allele frequency (based on the hemizygous male frequency) was 2.30% (95% CI, 1.77-2.83), while the overall frequency of G6PD-deficient genotypes A- (hemizygote and homozygote genotypes only) was 1.26% (95% CI, 0.86-1.66). G6PD deficiency is spread in Botswana according to the historical prevalence of malaria with a North-West to South-East decreasing gradient trend. There was no association between G6PD status and P. vivax infection. G6PD A- form was found to be associated with decreased RBC count and haemoglobin levels without a known cause or illness. In conclusion, we report for the first time the prevalence of G6PD deficiency in Botswana which is relevant for strategies in the malaria elimination campaign. Further work to examine the activities of the enzyme in the Botswana population at risk for malaria is warranted.

Relationship between combination antiretroviral therapy regimens and diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities among HIV patients in Gaborone Botswana.

BACKGROUND: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cARTs) regiments are known to prolong the recipients' life even though they are risk factors for diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities (DRCs). We sought to: (i) examine cART relationship with DRCs among patients attending HIV clinics in Gaborone, Botswana (which cART regimens are associated with shorter/longer time to the event), (ii) characterize patients' underlying biomedical and demographic risk factors of DRC and identify the most important, (iii) investigate survival of patients on different cART regimens in the presence of these risk factors. METHODS: Data from two major HIV clinics in Botswana were reviewed. Relationships between different cART regimens and DRCs were investigated among 531 recipients. Recipients' DRC risk factors were identified. Cox regression model was run. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios were computed, and hazard and survival functions for different cART regimens were plotted. RESULTS: Major findings were: patients on second- and third-line cART were less likely to develop DRCs earlier than those on first-line cART. Patients with CD4 count ≤ 200 cells/mm3 at cART initiation were more likely to develop DRCs earlier than those who had CD4 count > 200 cells/mm3. Overweight patients at cART initiation had a higher risk of developing DRCs earlier than those who had normal body mass index. Males had a lower risk of developing DRCs earlier than females. CONCLUSION: The risk of new onset of DRC among cART recipients is a function of the type of cART regimen, duration of exposure and patients' underlying biomedical and demographic DRC risk factors. The study has provided a survival model highlighting DRCs' significant prognostic factors to guide clinical care, policy and management of recipients of cARTs. Further studies in the same direction will likely improve the survival to the development of DRC of every cART recipient in this community.

Incidence of diabetes mellitus-related comorbidities among patients attending two major HIV clinics in Botswana: a 12-year retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is associated with the development of diabetes mellitus related comorbidities (DRCs). This study aims to: (i) estimate the incidence of DRCs among cART recipients, (ii) assess the time-to-event (development of DRC) and, (iii) compare survival function between recipients on first-line regimen and those on second-, third-line cART regimen. RESULTS: The incidence of DRCs was 26.8/1000 person-years, with total time of exposure of 3316 person-years. The average time to event for all the three regimens was 11.72 ± 0.20 years. The first-line cART regimen had a shorter mean ± SE of 10.59 ± 0.26 years to the event compared to 12.69 ± 0.24 years for the second-, third-line cART regimen. Recipients on the first-line had a shorter survival than recipients on second-, third-line cART (Log-rank X2 = 8.98, p < 0.003). Data from this study showed that the risk of developing DRCs per year of exposure was significantly greater for patients on first-line compared to those who were on second-, third-line regimen; which, suggests that monitoring of cART long-term side effects and regular reviewing of cART regimens is important. Meticulous selection of drug combinations is a key to improving recipients' survival.