Metabolic Profile and Long-Term Risk of Depression, Anxiety, and Stress-Related Disorders.

Importance: Biomarkers of lipid, apolipoprotein, and carbohydrate metabolism have been previously suggested to be associated with the risk for depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders, but results are inconsistent. Objective: To examine whether the biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism are associated with the risk of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study with longitudinal data collection assessed 211 200 participants from the Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort who underwent occupational health screening between January 1, 1985, and December 31, 1996, mainly in the Stockholm region in Sweden. Statistical analysis was performed during 2022 to 2023. Exposures: Lipid, apolipoprotein, and carbohydrate biomarkers measured in blood. Main Outcomes and Measures: The associations between biomarker levels and the risk of developing depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders through the end of 2020 were examined using Cox proportional hazards regression models. In addition, nested case-control analyses were conducted within the cohort, including all incident cases of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders, and up to 10 control individuals per case who were individually matched to the case by year of birth, sex, and year of enrollment to the AMORIS cohort, using incidence density sampling. Population trajectories were used to illustrate the temporal trends in biomarker levels for cases and controls. Results: A total of 211 200 individuals (mean [SD] age at first biomarker measurement, 42.1 [12.6] years; 122 535 [58.0%] male; 188 895 [89.4%] born in Sweden) participated in the study. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 21.0 (6.7) years, a total of 16 256 individuals were diagnosed with depression, anxiety, or stress-related disorders. High levels of glucose (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.20-1.41) and triglycerides (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.10-1.20) were associated with an increased subsequent risk of all tested psychiatric disorders, whereas high levels of high-density lipoprotein (HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.97) were associated with a reduced risk. These results were similar for male and female participants as well as for all tested disorders. The nested case-control analyses demonstrated that patients with depression, anxiety, or stress-related disorders had higher levels of glucose, triglycerides, and total cholesterol during the 20 years preceding diagnosis, as well as higher levels of apolipoprotein A-I and apolipoprotein B during the 10 years preceding diagnosis, compared with control participants. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of more than 200 000 participants, high levels of glucose and triglycerides and low levels of high-density lipoprotein were associated with future risk of depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders. These findings may support closer follow-up of individuals with metabolic dysregulations for the prevention and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders.

A Capture-Recapture-based Ascertainment Probability Weighting Method for Effect Estimation With Under-ascertained Outcomes.

Outcome under-ascertainment, characterized by the incomplete identification or reporting of cases, poses a substantial challenge in epidemiologic research. While capture-recapture methods can estimate unknown case numbers, their role in estimating exposure effects in observational studies is not well established. This paper presents an ascertainment probability weighting framework that integrates capture-recapture and propensity score weighting. We propose a nonparametric estimator of effects on binary outcomes that combines exposure propensity scores with data from two conditionally independent outcome measurements to simultaneously adjust for confounding and under-ascertainment. Demonstrating its practical application, we apply the method to estimate the relationship between health care work and coronavirus disease 2019 testing in a Swedish region. We find that ascertainment probability weighting greatly influences the estimated association compared to conventional inverse probability weighting, underscoring the importance of accounting for under-ascertainment in studies with limited outcome data coverage. We conclude with practical guidelines for the method's implementation, discussing its strengths, limitations, and suitable scenarios for application.

Blood biomarker profiles and exceptional longevity: comparison of centenarians and non-centenarians in a 35-year follow-up of the Swedish AMORIS cohort.

Comparing biomarker profiles measured at similar ages, but earlier in life, among exceptionally long-lived individuals and their shorter-lived peers can improve our understanding of aging processes. This study aimed to (i) describe and compare biomarker profiles at similar ages between 64 and 99 among individuals eventually becoming centenarians and their shorter-lived peers, (ii) investigate the association between specific biomarker values and the chance of reaching age 100, and (iii) examine to what extent centenarians have homogenous biomarker profiles earlier in life. Participants in the population-based AMORIS cohort with information on blood-based biomarkers measured during 1985-1996 were followed in Swedish register data for up to 35 years. We examined biomarkers of metabolism, inflammation, liver, renal, anemia, and nutritional status using descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and cluster analysis. In total, 1224 participants (84.6% females) lived to their 100th birthday. Higher levels of total cholesterol and iron and lower levels of glucose, creatinine, uric acid, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, alkaline phosphatase, lactate dehydrogenase, and total iron-binding capacity were associated with reaching 100 years. Centenarians overall displayed rather homogenous biomarker profiles. Already from age 65 and onwards, centenarians displayed more favorable biomarker values in commonly available biomarkers than individuals dying before age 100. The differences in biomarker values between centenarians and non-centenarians more than one decade prior death suggest that genetic and/or possibly modifiable lifestyle factors reflected in these biomarker levels may play an important role for exceptional longevity.

Considerations when planning and conducting large global observational studies: Experience from the DISCOVER study of patients with type 2 diabetes.

DISCOVER is a global programme of observational research that includes patients with type 2 diabetes initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy from 38 countries worldwide, including many with little or no previous epidemiological data available. More than 15,000 patients were followed-up for 3 years, and comprehensive data were collected using a standardized electronic case report form at enrolment, and 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. The study has formed the basis for a long-term registry that is intended to expand the geographic and clinical scope of the study and allow data collection beyond 3 years. In this review, critical aspects of study planning and implementation are summarized, along with challenges that were faced, to provide a resource for researchers planning similar studies. In particular, it is essential to set realistic expectations regarding the degree of study representativeness that can be achieved, allow for sufficient time to obtain ethics committee approval, develop tools to help recruit patients effectively, ensure that data collection systems are robust, user-friendly and adaptable, plan adequate remote and on-site monitoring, maximize patient retention through continuous engagement with study sites and ensure that everyone involved in the study forms a friendly and effective team. Observational studies such as DISCOVER are crucial for understanding disease epidemiology and management in real-world settings. They are also increasingly used by governmental, regulatory and payor agencies for post-marketing surveillance and when considering new drug submissions. The development of future studies of similar scope and ambition to DISCOVER is encouraged.

HbA1c trajectories over 3 years in people with type 2 diabetes starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy: The prospective global DISCOVER study.

AIM: To identify distinct HbA1c trajectories in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) starting second-line glucose-lowering therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER was a 3-year observational study of individuals with T2D beginning second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Data were collected at initiation of second-line treatment (baseline) and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. Latent class growth modelling was used to identify groups with distinct HbA1c trajectories. RESULTS: After exclusions, 9295 participants were assessed. Four distinct HbA1c trajectories were identified. Mean HbA1c levels decreased between baseline and 6 months in all groups; 72.4% of participants showed stable good levels of glycaemic control over the remainder of follow-up, 18.0% showed stable moderate levels of glycaemic control and 2.9% showed stable poor levels of glycaemic control. Only 6.7% of participants showed highly improved glycaemic control at month 6 and stable control over the rest of follow-up. For all groups, dual oral therapy use decreased over time, compensated for by the increasing use of other treatment regimens. Use of injectable agents increased over time in groups with moderate and poor glycaemic control. Logistic regression models suggested that participants from high-income countries were more probable to be in the stable good trajectory group. CONCLUSIONS: Most people receiving second-line glucose-lowering treatment in this global cohort achieved stable good or highly improved long-term glycaemic control. One-fifth of participants showed moderate or poor glycaemic control during follow-up. Further large-scale studies are required to characterize possible factors associated with patterns of glycaemic control to inform personalized diabetes treatment.

Blood metabolic biomarkers and the risk of head and neck cancer: An epidemiological study in the Swedish AMORIS Cohort.

Multiple studies have investigated the role of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism on the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC), with however conflicting results. We performed a study of 561,388 individuals of the Swedish AMORIS Cohort with blood test results on nine biomarkers for carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism during 1985-1996. We examined the associations of these biomarkers with the future risk of HNC through 2020 and demonstrated the temporal changes of these biomarkers during the decades before cancer diagnosis. We found that there was a positive association between blood level of glucose, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), and Apoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and the risk of HNC. Per standard deviation increase, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.09) for glucose, 1.09 (95% CI 1.05-1.13) for TC, 1.13 (95% CI 1.08-1.17) for TG, and 1.11 (95% CI 1.04-1.19) for ApoA-I. The associations were primarily noted for squamous cell carcinoma but not adenocarcinoma. Compared to controls, patients with HNC, primarily squamous cell carcinoma, showed constantly higher levels of glucose, TC, TG, and ApoA-I during the 30 years before diagnosis. In conclusion, findings of the study add new and high-quality evidence to the early involvement of carbohydrate and lipid metabolism in the oncogenesis of human cancer.

Elevated Uric Acid Is Associated With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation: Results From the Swedish AMORIS Cohort.

Background The role of uric acid is gaining increasing importance in the evaluation of cardiovascular disease, but its relationship with atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This study aims to investigate the association between uric acid levels and risk of new-onset AF. Methods and Results A total of 339 604 individuals 30 to 60 years of age and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline (1985-1996) in the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-Mortality Risk) cohort were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF. Cox regression models were used to examine the association between uric acid and AF, adjusting for potential confounders and stratifying by incident cardiovascular disease. Over a mean follow-up of 25.9 years, 46 516 incident AF cases occurred. Compared with the lowest uric acid quartile, each of the upper 3 quartiles were associated with an increased risk of AF in a dose-response manner. Adjusted hazard ratios were 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.12) for second quartile, 1.19 (95% CI, 1.16-1.23) for third quartile, and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.41-1.49) for fourth quartile. The association was similar among individuals with and without incident hypertension, diabetes, heart failure, or coronary heart disease. The dose-response pattern was further supported in a subsample of individuals with repeated measurements of uric acid. Conclusions Elevated uric acid was associated with an increased risk of AF, not only among people with cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors but also among those without. Future investigations are needed to examine whether lowering uric acid is relevant for AF prevention.

Carbohydrate, Lipid, and Apolipoprotein Biomarkers in Blood and Risk of Thyroid Cancer: Findings from the AMORIS Cohort.

Background: Previous studies have examined the link between blood metabolic biomarkers and risk of thyroid cancer, with inconclusive results. We performed a cohort study based on the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) Cohort, including 561,388 individuals undergoing health examinations during 1985−1996 with a follow-up of >30 years. Methods: Newly diagnosed cases of thyroid cancer were identified from the Swedish Cancer Register. We assessed the associations of nine blood biomarkers of carbohydrate, lipid, and apolipoprotein metabolism measured at the time of health examinations with the subsequent risk of thyroid cancer and demonstrated the temporal trend of these biomarkers during the 30 years before diagnosis of thyroid cancer. Results: After multivariable adjustment, there was a lower risk of thyroid cancer, per standard deviation increase in total cholesterol (TC; HR 0.91; 95%CI 0.82−0.99) and HDL-C (HR 0.86; 95%CI 0.75−0.99). During the 20 to 30 years before diagnosis, patients with thyroid cancer, as a group, demonstrated constantly lower levels of TC and HDL-C, compared to controls. Further, patients with thyroid cancer demonstrated declining levels of these biomarkers during the ten years before diagnosis, whereas controls demonstrated stable or increasing levels. Conclusions: Taken together, we found blood levels of TC and HDL-C to be associated with the risk of thyroid cancer and that there was a declining level of metabolic biomarkers during the 10 years before diagnosis of thyroid cancer.

Improved prediction of 10-year risk of severe liver disease in the general population using commonly available biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the risk for cirrhosis in the general population is complex. Existing prediction tools are in general unsatisfactory. AIMS: To explore if using commonly available biomarkers can improve the commonly used FIB-4 score in the identification of subgroups at risk of cirrhosis. METHODS: We used laboratory and clinical data on 126,925 individuals aged 35-79 years in Stockholm, Sweden, undergoing health examinations from 1985 to 1996. We used Swedish nationwide registries to ascertain 10-year cumulative incidence of severe liver disease, a composite of diagnoses corresponding to cirrhosis and its complications. We considered combinations of biomarkers associated with severe liver disease to identify subgroups with different risk profiles. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 9.3 years, we ascertained 630 incident cases of severe liver disease (0.5%). Age, the FIB-4 score, diabetes or impaired glucose and gamma-glutamyl transferase (gGT) were the most relevant characteristics for classifying risk profiles. Using these factors, we identified 24 groups with a cumulative incidence of severe liver disease at 10 years ranging from 0.2% (age 35-65, low FIB-4, no diabetes or impaired glucose and normal gGT) to 32.1% (age 35-65, high FIB-4, diabetes or impaired glucose and high gGT). CONCLUSIONS: Identification of subjects at increased risk of severe liver disease in the general population using the FIB-4 score can be substantially improved by adding age and specific biomarkers commonly available in the primary care setting. These parameters should be considered for inclusion in the development of future risk prediction models.

Lipid levels in midlife and risk of atrial fibrillation over 3 decades-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The role of cholesterol levels in the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) is still controversial. In addition, whether and to what extent apolipoproteins are associated with the risk of AF is rarely studied. In this study, we aimed to investigate the association between blood lipid levels in midlife and subsequent risk of new-onset AF. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This population-based study included 65,136 individuals aged 45 to 60 years without overt cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) from the Swedish Apolipoprotein-Related Mortality Risk (AMORIS) cohort. Lipids were measured in 1985 to 1996, and individuals were followed until December 31, 2019 for incident AF (i.e., study outcome). Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for age, sex, and socioeconomic status. Over a mean follow-up of 24.2 years (standard deviation 7.5, range 0.2 to 35.9), 13,871 (21.3%) incident AF cases occurred. Higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were statistically significantly associated with a lower risk of AF during the first 5 years of follow-up (HR = 0.61, 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.99, p = 0.013; HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.92, p = 0.016), but not thereafter (HR ranging from 0.94 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.00, p = 0.038] to 0.96 [95% CI: 0.77 to 1.19, p > 0.05]). Lower levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and apolipoprotein A-I (ApoA-I) and higher triglycerides (TG)/HDL-C ratio were statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of AF during the entire follow-up (HR ranging from 1.13 [95% CI: 1.07 to 1.19, p < 0.001] to 1.53 [95% CI: 1.12 to 2.00, p = 0.007]). Apolipoprotein B (ApoB)/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk. The observed associations were similar among those who developed incident heart failure (HF)/coronary heart disease (CHD) and those who did not. The main limitations of this study include lack of adjustments for lifestyle factors and high blood pressure leading to potential residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: High TC and LDL-C in midlife was associated with a lower risk of AF, but this association was present only within 5 years from lipid measurement and not thereafter. On the contrary, low HDL-C and ApoA-I and high TG/HDL-C ratio were associated with an increased risk of AF over almost 35 years of follow-up. ApoB/ApoA-I ratio was not associated with AF risk.

The social patterning of Covid-19 vaccine uptake in older adults: A register-based cross-sectional study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: A broad vaccination coverage is crucial for preventing the spread of Covid-19 and reduce serious illness or death. The aim of this study was to examine social inequalities in Covid-19 vaccination uptake as of 17th May 2021 among Swedish adults aged ≥ 60 years. METHODS: The study population comprised a general population cohort aged 60 years or older (n = 350,805), representative of the Swedish population. Data were collected through the nationwide linked multi-register observational study SCIFI-PEARL, and associations between sociodemographic determinants and Covid-19 vaccination uptake were analysed using logistic regression. Intersectional analyses of sociodemographic heterogeneity were performed by taking several overlapping social dimensions into account. Data availability extended to 17 May 2021. FINDINGS: The overall vaccination coverage was 87·2% by 17th May 2021. Younger age, male sex, lower income, living alone, and being born outside Sweden, were all associated with a lower uptake of vaccination. The lowest Covid-19 vaccination uptake was seen in individuals born in low-or middle-income countries, of which only 60% had received vaccination, with an odds ratio (OR) of not being vaccinated of 6·05 (95% CI: 5·85-6·26) compared to individuals born in Sweden. These associations persisted after adjustments for possible confounding factors. The intersectional analyses showed even larger variations in vaccination in cross-classified sociodemographic subgroups (ranging from 44% to 97%) with marked differences in uptake of vaccination within sociodemographic groups. INTERPRETATION: The uptake of Covid-19 vaccine during the spring of 2021 in Sweden varied substantially both between and within sociodemographic groups. The use of an intersectional approach, taking several overlapping social dimensions into account at the same time rather than only using one-dimensional measures, contributes to a better understanding of the complexity in the uptake of vaccination. FUNDING: SciLifeLab / Knut & Alice Wallenberg Foundation, Swedish Research Council, Swedish government ALF-agreement, FORMAS.

Quality of life in people with type 2 diabetes in the 3 years following initiation of second-line therapy: The DISCOVER study.

AIMS: To assess changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in DISCOVER, a 3-year, longitudinal, observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes initiating a second-line glucose-lowering therapy. METHODS: HRQoL was assessed using the physical and mental component summary (PCS and MCS) scores of the 36-item Short-Form Health Survey version 2 (score ranges: 0-100; higher denotes better HRQoL) and the Hypoglycaemia Fear Survey II (HFS-II; score range: 0-132 scale; higher indicates greater fear of hypoglycaemia). Latent class growth modelling (LCGM) was used to identify patients with similar score trajectories. RESULTS: Mean baseline PCS (n = 7428), MCS (n = 7453), and HFS-II (n = 5005) scores were 48.0, 45.4, and 15.4, respectively, and remained stable during follow-up. LCGM revealed subgroups with low or decreasing HRQoL. Patients in these subgroups tended to be older, had more comorbidities, and a lower socioeconomic status than in other subgroups. Use of insulin and sulfonylureas was highest in the subgroup with the highest fear of hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, HRQoL remained stable in DISCOVER patients during follow-up. However, LCGM suggests that some patient characteristics and use of sulfonylureas or insulin are associated with low or decreasing HRQoL, potentially warranting the use of alternative therapies.

Glucose-Lowering Medications and Post-Dementia Survival in Patients with Diabetes and Dementia.

BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) is unknown among patients with dementia. OBJECTIVE: To analyze all-cause mortality among users of six GLDs in dementia and dementia-free subjects, respectively. METHODS: This was a longitudinal open-cohort registry-based study using data from the Swedish Dementia Registry, Total Population Register, and four supplemental registers providing data on dementia status, drug usage, confounders, and mortality. The cohort comprised 132,402 subjects with diabetes at baseline, of which 11,401 (8.6%) had dementia and 121,001 (91.4%) were dementia-free. Subsequently, comparable dementia - dementia-free pairs were sampled. Then, as-treated and intention-to-treat exposures to metformin, insulin, sulfonylurea, dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 analogues (GLP-1a), and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) were analyzed in the parallel dementia and dementia-free cohorts. Confounding was addressed using inverse-probability weighting and propensity-score matching, and flexible parametric survival models were used to produce hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the association between GLDs and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In the as-treated models, increased mortality was observed among insulin users with dementia (HR 1.34 [95%CI 1.24-1.45]) as well as in dementia-free subjects (1.54 [1.10-1.55]). Conversely, sulfonylurea was associated with higher mortality only in dementia subjects (1.19 [1.01-1.42]). GLP-1a (0.44 [0.25-0.78]) and SGLT-2i users with dementia (0.43 [0.23-0.80]) experienced lower mortality compared to non-users. CONCLUSION: Insulin and sulfonylurea carried higher mortality risk among dementia patients, while GLP-1a and SGLT-2i were associated with lower risk. GLD-associated mortality varied between dementia and comparable dementia-free subjects. Further studies are needed to optimize GLD use in dementia patients.

Impact of micro- and macrovascular complications of type 2 diabetes on quality of life: Insights from the DISCOVER prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The key goals of management in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) are to prolong life and improve quality of life. Micro- and macrovascular complications of T2D not only increase the risk of morbidity and mortality, but cross-sectional studies indicate they may also worsen quality of life. We prospectively examined the association of complications that developed during the follow-up with concurrent changes in quality of life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DISCOVER is a multinational, prospective, observational cohort study of T2D patients enrolled at initiation of second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Quality of life was assessed with the SF-36 Physical (PCS) and Mental Components Summary (MCS) scores at baseline, 6 months, and 1, 2 and 3 years. Hierarchical repeated measures regression models for PCS and MCS were constructed with complications included as time-dependent covariates; first each complication was modelled alone and then second including all interval complications (to account for different complications occurring in the same patient). RESULTS: Among 7830 patients with T2D from 30 countries (mean age 56.6 years, 47.6% women, mean duration of T2D 5.6 years), baseline mean SF-36 PCS was 48.0 ± 7.8 and SF-36 MCS was 45.5 ± 10.4. At baseline, 1422 (18.2%) patients had a known microvascular complication, and 966 (12.3%) had a macrovascular complication. Over the 3 years of the study, 641 (12.0%) developed a new microvascular complication (most commonly neuropathy) and 372 (5.8%) developed a new macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). New diagnoses of coronary disease, peripheral artery disease, heart failure and neuropathy were each associated with subsequent moderate reductions in SF-36 PCS (range 0.7 to 1.6 points) and new cerebrovascular disease was associated with a reduction in SF-36 MCS (2.6 points). Results were consistent when all interval complications were considered in the same model. CONCLUSION: In a prospective, multinational study of patients with T2D, the development of macrovascular complications and neuropathy was associated with decreases in both physical and mental quality of life. Our results provide additional support for clinicians to focus on the prevention, detection and management of the complications of T2D.

Incidence rates and predictors of microvascular and macrovascular complications in patients with type 2 diabetes: Results from the longitudinal global discover study.

BACKGROUND: Micro- and macrovascular complications are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We sought to understand the global incidence rates and predictors of these complications. METHODS: We examined the incidence of vascular complications over 3 years of follow-up in the DISCOVER study-a global, observational study of people with T2D initiating second-line glucose-lowering therapy. Hierarchical Cox proportional hazards regression models examined factors associated with development of micro- and macrovascular complications during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 11,357 people with T2D from 33 countries (mean age 56.9 ± 11.7 years, T2D duration 5.7 ± 5.1 years, HbA1c 8.4 ± 1.7%), 19.0% had a microvascular complication at enrolment (most commonly neuropathy), and 13.2% had a macrovascular complication (most commonly coronary disease). Over 3 years of follow-up, 16.0% developed an incident microvascular complication, and 6.6% had an incident macrovascular complication. At the end of 3 years of follow-up, 31.5% of patients had at least one microvascular complication, and 16.6% had at least one macrovascular complication. Higher HbA1c and smoking were associated with greater risk of both incident micro- and macrovascular complications. Known macrovascular complications at baseline was the strongest predictor for development of new microvascular complications (HR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 -1.61) and new macrovascular complications (HR 3.39, 95% CI 2.84 -4.06). CONCLUSIONS: In this global study, both the prevalence and 3-year incidence of vascular complications were high in patients with relatively short T2D duration, highlighting the need for early risk-factor modification.

Alterations in Biomarkers Related to Glycemia, Lipid Metabolism, and Inflammation up to 20 Years Before Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes in Adults: Findings From the AMORIS Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: Type 1 diabetes is described to have an acute onset, but autoantibodies can appear several years preceding diagnosis. This suggests a long preclinical phase, which may also include metabolic parameters. Here we assessed whether elevations in glycemic, lipid, and other metabolic biomarkers were associated with future type 1 diabetes risk in adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 591,239 individuals from the Swedish AMORIS cohort followed from 1985-1996 to 2012. Through linkage to national patient, diabetes, and prescription registers, we identified incident type 1 diabetes. Using Cox regression models, we estimated hazard ratios for biomarkers at baseline and incident type 1 diabetes. We additionally assessed trajectories of biomarkers during the 25 years before type 1 diabetes diagnosis in a nested case-control design. RESULTS: We identified 1,122 type 1 diabetes cases during follow-up (average age of patient at diagnosis: 53.3 years). The biomarkers glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, the ratio of apolipoprotein (apo)B to apoA-I, uric acid, alkaline phosphatase, and BMI were positively associated with type 1 diabetes risk. Higher apoA-I was associated with lower type 1 diabetes incidence. Already 15 years before diagnosis, type 1 diabetes cases had higher mean glucose, fructosamine, triglycerides, and uric acid levels compared with control subjects. CONCLUSIONS: Alterations in biomarker levels related to glycemia, lipid metabolism, and inflammation are associated with clinically diagnosed type 1 diabetes risk, and these may be elevated many years preceding diagnosis.

Long-term risk of a major cardiovascular event by apoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio-Experience from the Swedish AMORIS cohort: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Elevated apolipoprotein B (apoB) and elevated apoB/apoA-1 ratio increase the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke, whereas high apoA-1 is protective. We study how these apolipoproteins are associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), whether apoA-1 contributes to this association, and whether abnormal values occur decades before such events develop. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In the Swedish AMORIS (Apolipoprotein-related MOrtality RISk) cohort study, 137,100 men and women aged 25-84 years were followed an average 17.8 years. ApoB, apoA-1, and the apoB/apoA-1 ratio were analysed in relation to MACEs (non-fatal MI, stroke, and cardiovascular [CV] mortality), yielding 22,473 events. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to investigate the relationship of MACEs with increasing quintiles of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio in all age groups for both sexes. In nested case-control analyses, cases were randomly matched to age- and sex-matched controls, yielding population trajectories for apolipoproteins. Increased level of apoB and increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio were associated with risk of MACE and all clinical sub-components in both men and women across all ages (10th versus first decile in both sexes combined: HR 1.7 for MACE and 2.7 for non-fatal MI). Decreased values of apoA-1 potentiated the impact of apoB at all levels of apoB (on average across apoB range: 40% increase in HR for MACE and 72% increase in HR for non-fatal MI), indicating that the apoB/apoA-1 ratio covers a broader range of persons with dyslipidaemia at risk than apoB alone. In both men and women, MACEs occurred earlier on average for each increasing quintile of the apoB/apoA-1 ratio. Individuals with the highest levels of apoB/apoA-1 ratio experienced CV events on average several years earlier than those with lower ratios. Higher apoB/apoA-1 ratio in cases of MACE versus controls was seen already about 20 years before the event. A limitation of this study was that adjustment for tobacco smoking and hypertension was only possible in a small validation study. CONCLUSIONS: An imbalance between apoB and apoA-1 resulting in an increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio is strongly associated with the outcome MACE and its sub-components, in both men and women of all ages. An increased apoB/apoA-1 ratio already 2 decades before events calls for early recognition and primary prevention. Simple evidence-based cut values should be considered in future cardiovascular guidelines.

The association of antidiabetic medications and Mini-Mental State Examination scores in patients with diabetes and dementia.

BACKGROUND: The effect of antidiabetic medication on cognitive function is unclear. We analyzed the association between five antidiabetic drugs and change in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores in patients with diabetes and dementia. METHODS: Using the Swedish Dementia Registry and four supplementary Swedish registers/databases, we identified 1873 patients (4732 observations) with diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (diabetes) and Alzheimer's disease or mixed-pathology dementia who were followed up at least once after dementia diagnosis. Use of metformin, insulin, sulfonylurea, thiazolidinediones (TZD), and dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) was identified at baseline. Prevalent-user, incident-user, and drug-drug cohorts were sampled, and propensity-score matching was used to analyze comparable subjects. Beta coefficients with 95% confidence intervals (CI) from the random intercept and slope linear mixed-effects models determined the association between the use of antidiabetic medications and decline in MMSE score points between the follow-ups. Inverse-probability weighting was used to account for patient dropout. RESULTS: Compared to non-users, prevalent users of metformin (beta 0.89, 95% CI 0.44; 1.33) and DPP-4i (0.72, 0.06; 1.37) experienced a slower cognitive decline with time. Secondly, compared to DPP-4i, the use of insulin (-1.00, -1.95; -0.04) and sulfonylureas (-1.19; -2.33; -0.04) was associated with larger point-wise decrements in MMSE with annual intervals. CONCLUSIONS: In this large cohort of patients with diabetes and dementia, the use of metformin and DPP-4i was associated with a slower decline in MMSE scores. Further examination of the cognitive effects of metformin and incretin-based medications is warranted.