Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

Slip rate variations on normal faults during glacial-interglacial changes in surface loads.

Geologic and palaeoseismological data document a marked increase in the slip rates of the Wasatch fault and three adjacent normal faults in the Basin and Range Province during the Late Pleistocene/Early Holocene epochs. The cause of this synchronous acceleration of fault slip and the subsequent clustering of earthquakes during the Holocene has remained enigmatic, although it has been suggested that the coincidence between the acceleration of slip and the shrinkage of Lake Bonneville after the Last Glacial Maximum may indicate a causal relationship. Here we use finite-element models of a discrete normal fault within a rheologically layered lithosphere to evaluate the relative importance of two competing processes that affect fault slip: postglacial unloading (the removal of mass), which decreases the slip rate, and lithospheric rebound, which promotes faster slip. We show that lithospheric rebound caused by regression of Lake Bonneville and deglaciation of adjacent mountain ranges provides a feasible mechanism for the high Holocene rates of faulting in the Wasatch region. Our analysis implies that climate-controlled changes in loads applied to Earth's surface may exert a fundamental control on the slip history of individual normal faults.