Dynamic game and simulation for low-carbon development of industrial land under the Chinese decentralization: a case study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

To achieve low-carbon development of industrial land in China, it is important to coordinate the conflicts of interest among stakeholders in the process of land expropriation and utilization. However, the complex interaction mechanism and influencing factors among stakeholders make it difficult to achieve the goal under the Chinese decentralization and unique land development pattern. To solve these problems, this paper first analyzes the four main stakeholders' conflicts of interest in the process of land expropriation and utilization, that is, the central government, local government, peasant, and enterprise. Then, we construct two evolutionary game models to examine the dynamic changes of stakeholders' different strategies and take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as an example to compare the impacts of factors on strategies under different conditions using simulation analysis. The research shows that under the Chinese decentralization, adjusting the action strengths of different stakeholders can have different effects on system equilibrium. In terms of the central government's reward and penalty, increasing the reward and penalty for local government will shorten the time of system equilibrium to a different degree, and there is little difference between the effects of political and economic penalties. Interestingly, increasing the incentives for peasants cannot promote the system equilibrium in advance. In addition, the key to local governments' decision on illegal land expropriation lies in benefits rather than costs, and investment in low-carbon technology reform with positive externalities is easier to control than investment in economic production with negative externalities associated with pollution emissions.

Herders' adaptation strategies and animal husbandry development under climate change: A panel data analysis.

The frequent occurrence of extreme climate events has become an indisputable fact. However, the role of adaptation to extreme climate change in the development of livestock husbandry is still insufficiently understood. This study empirically analyzed the impact of herders' adaptation strategies to extreme drought on livestock husbandry development and aimed to explore the optimal grassland management path under continuous climate change. A panel dataset of surveyed herders from the Xilingol League, a traditional pastoral area in China, was used. The results indicated that the average frequency of extreme drought in the Xilingol League from 1980 to 2020 was 4.94 months/year, and the occurrence of extreme drought showed a slightly upward trend. The average technical efficiency of livestock husbandry was 0.721, which can still be improved. Hay purchases can effectively promote livestock technical efficiency (p<0.01) and is the main adaptation strategy of herders to extreme drought. Further analysis showed that non-farming and pastoral employment has a positive regulatory effect in the impact of purchased hay on livestock technical efficiency. The results of this study deepen the understanding of effective adaptation to extreme weather events in pastoral areas due to climate change and provide useful information to policymakers engaged in grassland management.

How Has Climate Change Driven the Evolution of Rice Distribution in China?

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of "north rising and south retreating". The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper's results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.

Analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry.

It is vast significance to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of herbivorous animal husbandry industry based on the context of China's agriculture pursuing high-quality development. In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the layout of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry and its influencing factors based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and spatial Durbin model with data from 1980 to 2017. The results show that there are significant positive autocorrelation characteristics of "high-high" aggregation and "low-low" aggregation in the Chinese herbivorous animal husbandry industry. To be specific, in the past four decades, the spatial distribution center of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry has moved towards the northeast, crossing the boundary between agriculture and animal husbandry in China, presenting a clear trend of moving from pastoral area to agricultural area; the gradual narrowing of the spatial distribution range indicates the gradually increased degree of aggregation within the industry; the east-west stretch of spatial distribution has been strengthened, and the azimuth angle shows clockwise change, suggesting that the industrial expansion in the northeast-southwest direction is prominent; the influencing factors of changes in the spatial distribution of the industry reveal that the quantity and production capacity of productive land, people's income and living standards, and the level of mechanization will promote the development of China's herbivorous animal husbandry industry, and are essential factors influencing industrial distribution and transfer, while policy factor has small or even not significant impact on industrial aggregation, reflecting that the policy has not played the expected role, and policy support needs to be further intensified.