Developing the High-Risk Drinking Scorecard Model in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to develop a high-risk drinking scorecard using cross-sectional data from the 2014 Korea Community Health Survey. METHODS: Data were collected from records for 149,592 subjects who had participated in the Korea Community Health Survey conducted from 2014. The scorecard model was developed using data mining, a scorecard and points to double the odds approach for weighted multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: This study found that there were many major influencing factors for high-risk drinkers which included gender, age, educational level, occupation, whether they received health check-ups, depressive symptoms, over-moderate physical activity, mental stress, smoking status, obese status, and regular breakfast. Men in their thirties to fifties had a high risk of being a drinker and the risks in office workers and sales workers were high. Those individuals who were current smokers had a higher risk of drinking. In the scorecard results, the highest score range was observed for gender, age, educational level, and smoking status, suggesting that these were the most important risk factors. CONCLUSION: A credit risk scorecard system can be applied to quantify the scoring method, not only to help the medical service provider to understand the meaning, but also to help the general public to understand the danger of high-risk drinking more easily.

The graphical method for goodness of fit test in the inverse Weibull distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples.

Many studies have considered a truncated and censored samples which are type-I, type-II and hybrid censoring scheme. The inverse Weibull distribution has been utilized for the analysis of life testing and reliability data. Also, this distribution is a very flexible distribution. The inverse Rayleigh distribution and inverse exponential distribution are a special case of the inverse Weibull distribution. In this paper, we derive the approximate maximum likelihood estimators (AMLEs) of the scale parameter and the shape parameter in the inverse Weibull distribution under multiply type-II censoring. We also propose a simple graphical method for goodness-on-fit test based on multiply type-II censored samples using AMLEs.

Individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men.

PURPOSE: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths in Korea. The objective of the present study was to develop an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men using population-based cohort data. METHODS: From a population-based cohort study of 1,324,804 Korean men free of cancer at baseline, the individualized absolute risk of developing lung cancer was estimated using the Cox proportional hazards model. We checked the validity of the model using C statistics and the Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test on an external validation dataset. RESULTS: The risk prediction model for lung cancer in Korean men included smoking exposure, age at smoking initiation, body mass index, physical activity, and fasting glucose levels. The model showed excellent performance (C statistic = 0.871, 95% CI = 0.867-0.876). Smoking was significantly associated with the risk of lung cancer in Korean men, with a four-fold increased risk in current smokers consuming more than one pack a day relative to non-smokers. Age at smoking initiation was also a significant predictor for developing lung cancer; a younger age at initiation was associated with a higher risk of developing lung cancer. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to provide an individualized risk prediction model for lung cancer in an Asian population with very good model performance. In addition to current smoking status, earlier exposure to smoking was a very important factor for developing lung cancer. Since most of the risk factors are modifiable, this model can be used to identify those who are at a higher risk and who can subsequently modify their lifestyle choices to lower their risk of lung cancer.

Alcohol consumption and mortality from all-cause and cancers among 1.34 million Koreans: the results from the Korea national health insurance corporation's health examinee cohort in 2000.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between alcohol and cancer death has not been well established in Asian population, particularly among women. METHOD: We evaluated the association between alcohol consumption and all-cause and cancer mortality in a large-scale prospective study of 1,341,393 Korean men and women aged 40-69 years who participated in health examination in 2000. After 5 years follow-up for mortality (2001-2005), 19,375 deaths were identified, and Cox regression was used for longitudinal analyses. RESULTS: The J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause and all-cancer mortality was found in men. However, heavy drinking was positively associated with the risk of all-cause and all-cancer mortality in men and women. Alcohol consumption was positively associated with the risk of cancer mortality such as cancers of liver, stomach, colorectal, prostate, esophageal, brain, and larynx and cancer of lips, oral cavity, pharynx in men and increased the risk of all-cancer and colorectal cancer mortality in women. Kidney cancer mortality was inversely associated with alcohol consumption in men. CONCLUSION: Heavy drinking showed an increased mortality risk of all-cause, all-cancer, and several cancers in men and women. There was no favorable effect of light drinking on all-cause and all-cancer mortality for women.