Development and validation of an artificial intelligence mobile application for predicting 30-day mortality in critically ill patients with orthopaedic trauma.

BACKGROUND: Given the intricate and grave nature of trauma-related injuries in ICU settings, it is imperative to develop and deploy reliable predictive tools that can aid in the early identification of high-risk patients who are at risk of early death. The objective of this study is to create and validate an artificial intelligence (AI) model that can accurately predict early mortality among critical fracture patients. METHODS: A total of 2662 critically ill patients with orthopaedic trauma were included from the MIMIC III database. Early mortality was defined as death within 30 days in this study. The patients were randomly divided into a model training cohort and a model validation cohort. Various algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting machine (eXGBM), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN), were employed. Evaluation metrics, including discrimination and calibration, were used to develop a comprehensive scoring system ranging from 0 to 60, with higher scores indicating better prediction performance. Furthermore, external validation was carried out using 131 patients. The optimal model was deployed as an internet-based AI tool. RESULTS: Among all models, the eXGBM demonstrated the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.974, 95%CI: 0.959-0.983), followed by the RF model (0.951, 95%CI: 0.935-0.967) and the NN model (0.922, 95%CI: 0.905-0.941). Additionally, the eXGBM model outperformed other models in terms of accuracy (0.915), precision (0.906), recall (0.926), F1 score (0.916), Brier score (0.062), log loss (0.210), and discrimination slope (0.767). Based on the scoring system, the eXGBM model achieved the highest score (53), followed by RF (42) and NN (39). The LR, DT, and SVM models obtained scores of 28, 18, and 32, respectively. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the superior clinical net benefits of the eXGBM model. External validation of the model achieved an AUC value of 0.913 (95%CI: 0.878-0.948). Consequently, the model was deployed on the Internet at https://30-daymortalityincriticallyillpatients-fnfsynbpbp6rgineaspuim.streamlit.app/, allowing users to input patient features and obtain predicted risks of early mortality among critical fracture patients. Furthermore, the AI model successfully stratified patients into low or high risk of early mortality based on a predefined threshold and provided recommendations for appropriate therapeutic interventions. CONCLUSION: This study successfully develops and validates an AI model, with the eXGBM algorithm demonstrating the highest predictive performance for early mortality in critical fracture patients. By deploying the model as a web-based AI application, healthcare professionals can easily access the tool, enabling them to predict 30-day mortality and aiding in the identification and management of high-risk patients among those critically ill with orthopedic trauma.

A machine learning-based prediction model for in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with hip fracture: An internal and external validated study.

INTRODUCTION: Few studies have investigated the in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with hip fracture. This study aimed to develop and validate a model to estimate the risk of in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients with hip fracture. METHODS: For this study, data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) Database and electronic Intensive Care Unit (eICU) Collaborative Research Database were evaluated. Enrolled patients (n=391) in the MIMIC-III database were divided into a training (2/3, n=260) and a validation (1/3, n=131) group at random. Using machine learning algorithms such as random forest, gradient boosting machine, decision tree, and eXGBoosting machine approach, the training group was utilized to train and optimize models. The validation group was used to internally validate models and the optimal model could be obtained in terms of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC) and calibration (calibration curve). External validation was done in the eICU Collaborative Research Database (n=165). To encourage practical use of the model, a web-based calculator was developed according to the eXGBoosting machine approach. RESULTS: The in-hospital death rate was 13.81% (54/391) in the MIMIC-III database and 10.91% (18/165) in the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Age, gender, anemia, mechanical ventilation, cardiac arrest, and chronic airway obstruction were the six model parameters which were identified using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method combined with 10-fold cross-validation. The model established using the eXGBoosting machine approach showed the highest area under curve (AUC) value (0.797, 95% CI: 0.696-0.898) and the best calibrating ability, with a calibration slope of 0.999 and intercept of -0.019. External validation also revealed favorable discrimination (AUC: 0.715, 95% CI: 0.566-0.864; accuracy: 0.788) and calibration (calibration slope: 0.805) in the eICU Collaborative Research Database. The web-based calculator could be available at https://doctorwangsj-webcalculator-main-yw69yd.streamlitapp.com/. CONCLUSION: The model has the potential to be a pragmatic risk prediction tool that is able to identify hip fracture patients who are at a high risk of in-hospital mortality in ICU settings, guide patient risk counseling, and simplify prognosis bench-marking by controlling for baseline risk.

Biological signatures and prediction of an immunosuppressive status-persistent critical illness-among orthopedic trauma patients using machine learning techniques.

Background: Persistent critical illness (PerCI) is an immunosuppressive status. The underlying pathophysiology driving PerCI remains incompletely understood. The objectives of the study were to identify the biological signature of PerCI development, and to construct a reliable prediction model for patients who had suffered orthopedic trauma using machine learning techniques. Methods: This study enrolled 1257 patients from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Lymphocytes were tracked from ICU admission to more than 20 days following admission to examine the dynamic changes over time. Over 40 possible variables were gathered for investigation. Patients were split 80:20 at random into a training cohort (n=1035) and an internal validation cohort (n=222). Four machine learning algorithms, including random forest, gradient boosting machine, decision tree, and support vector machine, and a logistic regression technique were utilized to train and optimize models using data from the training cohort. Patients in the internal validation cohort were used to validate models, and the optimal one was chosen. Patients from two large teaching hospitals were used for external validation (n=113). The key metrics that used to assess the prediction performance of models mainly included discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. To encourage clinical application based on the optimal machine learning-based model, a web-based calculator was developed. Results: 16.0% (201/1257) of all patients had PerCI in the MIMIC-III database. The means of lymphocytes (%) were consistently below the normal reference range across the time among PerCI patients (around 10.0%), whereas in patients without PerCI, the number of lymphocytes continued to increase and began to be in normal range on day 10 following ICU admission. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that patients with PerCI were in a more serious health condition at admission since those patients had worse nutritional status, more electrolyte imbalance and infection-related comorbidities, and more severe illness scores. Eight variables, including albumin, serum calcium, red cell volume distributing width (RDW), blood pH, heart rate, respiratory failure, pneumonia, and the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, were significantly associated with PerCI, according to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression model combined with the 10-fold cross-validation. These variables were all included in the modelling. In comparison to other algorithms, the random forest had the optimal prediction ability with the highest area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) (0.823, 95% CI: 0.757-0.889), highest Youden index (1.571), and lowest Brier score (0.107). The AUROC in the external validation cohort was also up to 0.800 (95% CI: 0.688-0.912). Based on the risk stratification system, patients in the high-risk group had a 10.0-time greater chance of developing PerCI than those in the low-risk group. A web-based calculator was available at https://starxueshu-perci-prediction-main-9k8eof.streamlitapp.com/. Conclusions: Patients with PerCI typically remain in an immunosuppressive status, but those without PerCI gradually regain normal immunity. The dynamic changes of lymphocytes can be a reliable biomarker for PerCI. This work developed a reliable model that may be helpful in improving early diagnosis and targeted intervention of PerCI. Beneficial interventions, such as improving nutritional status and immunity, maintaining electrolyte and acid-base balance, curbing infection, and promoting respiratory recovery, are early warranted to prevent the onset of PerCI, especially among patients in the high-risk group and those with a continuously low level of lymphocytes.

Femoroacetabular Impingement and Labral Tear: From the Most Highly Cited Articles to Research Interests.

OBJECTIVE: To highlight the characteristics of the most highly cited articles and propose the research interests over the past decades in the field of femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) and labral tear. METHODS: The ISI Web of Science database (Clarivate Analytics, New York, the United States) was utilized for the identification of articles on 15 December 2020. FAI and labral tear-related articles (1138 articles) were retrieved, of which the 100 most-cited articles (top 100) were identified. Subsequent analysis included citation density (citations/article age), authorship, institution, journal, geographic distribution, level of evidence, and theme. RESULTS: The number of citations per article ranged from 66 to 1189 with a mean of 163.31. The majority of articles were published in the United States (all articles/top 100 = 655/57) and Switzerland (85/22). University of Bern (n = 10) was the most prolific institution. The journal with the most of articles was Arthroscopy: The Journal of Arthroscopic and Related Surgery. The most prolific coauthor (all articles) or first authors (top 100) was Domb (n = 109) and Philippon (n = 6), respectively. The evidence with the most articles is level IV (n = 41). The top three most popular topics of research article were outcomes of surgery (n = 23), imaging diagnosis (n = 18), and comparison of surgery (n = 8). The top four most prevalent themes of review were labral tears (n = 3), FAI (n = 3), comparison of surgery imaging diagnosis, and outcomes of surgery (both n = 2). Six keywords with the newest average publication year, including FAI syndrome (average publication year = 2019.50), patient-reported outcomes (2019.43), femoroplasty (2018.60), clinical outcomes (2018.17), borderline dysplasia (2018.00), and capsule (2018.00). Five keywords with the highest average citations, including outcome (average citations = 88.50), alpha angle (58.00), complications (55.86), revision hip arthroscopy (49.00), and systematic review (46.14). CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes research is the most popular research interest and patient-reported outcome instruments might be further and widely used in the emerging articles in the near future. The field of FAI and labral tear has shown an obvious trend of development and is steadily evolving. It could be predicted that there will be an increasing number of publications in the following years, with the United States and Switzerland maintaining leadership in this field.