Improving prediction of soil heavy metal(loid) concentration by developing a combined Co-kriging and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model.

The study of heavy metal(loid) (HM) contamination in soil using extensive data obtained from published literature is an economical and convenient method. However, the uneven distribution of these data in time and space limits their direct applicability. Therefore, based on the concentration data obtained from the published literature (2000-2020), we investigated the relationship between soil HM accumulation and various anthropogenic activities, developed a hybrid model to predict soil HM concentrations, and then evaluated their ecological risks. The results demonstrated that various anthropogenic activities were the main cause of soil HM accumulation using Geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model. The hybrid Co-kriging + GTWR model, which incorporates two of the most influential auxiliary variables, can improve the accuracy and reliability of predicting HM concentrations. The predicted concentrations of eight HMs all exceeded the background values for soil environment in China. The results of the ecological risk assessment revealed that five HMs accounted for more than 90% of the area at the "High risk" level (RQ ≥ 1), with the descending order of Ni (100%) = Cu (100%) > As (98.73%) > Zn (95.50%) > Pb (94.90%). This study provides a novel approach to environmental pollution research using the published data.

Impact of economic development on soil trace metal(loid)s pollution: A case study of China.

Recently, intensive anthropogenic activities, while promoting economic growth, have also exacerbated soil trace metal(loid) (TM) pollution. To explore the impact of economic development on soil TM pollution, a time-weighted method was introduced to calculate the average concentrations of eight TMs in Chinese topsoil from 2001 to 2020, and panel data on TMs and economic factors of 31 provinces were used for regression analysis. The results revealed that the average concentrations of soil TMs all exceeded their respective soil background values. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of soil TMs was characterized by obvious regional heterogeneity, with economically developed areas being heavily polluted and having high ecological risks. In addition, the results derived from panel data models showed that the relationship between soil TM pollution and economic development in China presented a continuous growth curve, but with an N-shaped pattern in eastern China, a U-shaped pattern in central China, and a positive linearity in western China. Four control variables were also introduced to evaluate their impact on TM pollution, and the results indicated that the proportion of secondary industry and the road area per capita were the major influencing factors. Ultimately, the inflection point estimation results suggested that the soil TM pollution level will increase in eastern China, central China and western China with ongoing economic growth. Our findings contribute to the current understanding of the relationship between soil TM pollution and anthropogenic activities, and provide a scientific basis for adjusting and planning industrial development and layout according to the characteristics of soil TM pollution.

Human activities contributing to the accumulation of high-risk trace metal(loid)s in soils of China's five major urban agglomerations.

Rapid urbanization has accelerated the accumulation of trace metal(loid)s (TMs) in soils, but the relationship between this accumulation and human activities remains largely unknown. Therefore, based on 775 published literatures (2001-2020), this study aimed to identify the influence of human activities on TM accumulation. Results showed that all soil TM concentrations were higher than their corresponding Chinese soil background values. The pollution risk assessment indicated that the soil TMs in the study area were at moderate levels, and the value of Pollution load index was 2.10. According to the assessment of health risks, the non-carcinogenic risks for adults were at the "Negligible risk" level; while the carcinogenic risk was not negligible for all populations, with children being more susceptible than adults. Meanwhile, six high-risk TMs were identified based on the grading of Contaminating factors (CF ≥ 3) and contribution to health risk (≥ 75%), including four high pollution risk TMs (Cd, Hg, Cu, and Pb) and two high health risk TMs (Cr and As) . In addition, in accordance with the results of the Random forest model, the accumulation of soil high-risk TMs was closely related to influencing factors associated with human activities. The accumulation of Hg and Cr among five major urban agglomerations had the same influencing factors (the number of industrial companies and the amount of industrial wastewater discharge for Hg; the amount of pesticide application and highway mileage for Cr). However, there were significant differences in the factors influencing the accumulation of the other four high-risk TMs (including Cd, As, Cu and Pb), due to the different characteristics of each urban agglomeration. Our results provide new insights into the relationship between human activities and soil TM accumulation.

New insights into health risk assessment on soil trace metal(loid)s: Model improvement and parameter optimization.

Trace metal(loid)s (TMs) in soils may pose potential health risks to humans. Due to model uncertainty and variability of exposure parameters, the traditional health risk assessment (HRA) model may lead to inaccurate risk assessment results. Therefore, this study developed an improved HRA model to assess health risks by combining two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation (2-D MCS) with a Logistic Chaotic sequence based on published data from 2000 to 2021. The results showed children and adult females were the high-risks populations for Non-carcinogenic risk and Carcinogenic risk, respectively. Meanwhile, children's Ingestion rate (IngR < 160.233 mg/day) and adult females' Skin adherence factor (0.026 mg/(cm2•d) < AF < 0.263 mg/(cm2•d)) were used as recommended exposure to make the health risk within acceptable range. Additionally, when performing risk assessment using actual exposure parameters, priority control TMs were identified, with As being the priority control TM for Southwest China and Inner Mongolia, whereas Cr and Pb for Tibet and Yunnan, respectively. Compared to health risk assessment, improved models increased risk assessment accuracy and provided recommended exposure parameter for high-risk populations. This study will provide new insights for soil-related health risk assessment.